I'm asking this question/discussion point with the assumption that for us (and the teams around us), the conference tournament means nothing, so I'm not factoring in any conference tournament results into this question -

The seeding reveal yesterday -- should that be viewed as a hypothetical "if the tournament was played today, the seeds would be this, but we will start from scratch on Selection Sunday" or is it more "these are the top 16 seeds, and come selection Sunday thats generally what they will be unless something unexpected happens?"

I ask that in relation to our final 6 games and what we need to do to stay where we are (on the 2 seed line).

Of the teams around us (that I think could catch/pass us) - Tennessee, Purdue, Houston, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Tech and Michigan - only Houston has a tougher Remaining SOS (according to BPI), but its just barely, and nobody else on that list plays more than 1 team seeded ahead of them (we play 3).

So, if we go, say 3-3 down the stretch (beating either Tennessee or MSST, take your pick) and other teams do better than that (which most of projected to do, per Bart Torvik), would we be "punished" a seed line because of that? Or would the thought process from the committee potentially be, "Texas A&M did what they were expected to do the last 6 games, playing 2 1-seeds and the best 2 seed, and so they are still deserving of a 2 seed?

Since we haven't been in this position since the committee starting doing this, I don't have a good understanding of just how rigid or flexible those seed lines are. I know there will be some changes based on the next 3 weeks, but how much?

ColoAg95 said:

---

If we drop four of the next six games, we will be a 4-5 seed. It's hard to lose to close the regular season and keep the two seed.

We have games against two 1-seeds, one 2-seed, one 8-seed, one 10-seed, and LSU. I think we need to go 4-2 in the last six to keep the 2 seed.

Best to look at this like we are in the tournament now. Man, it's hard to keep up that level of play for that long.I'd look at the SEC tourney like a tune-up game and get bench\underclassmen experience.

However it ends up, I've sure enjoyed this season. Great job guys!

---

I can see us dropping the MSU and Florida games on the road and winning the others. In that scenario, I think there's a great chance at retaining the #2 seed.

I'll be a bit disappointed if we go 3-3 (assuming we don't lose to LSU or Vandy) and drop to a 3 seed. No other team in the Top 16 has 3 teams on their remaining schedule seeded ahead of them, let alone 2 1-seeds and the top 2 seed (who is basically a 1.5 seed at this time, based on what the committee guy said on Saturday).

It would suck to have to beat one or more of those teams to just stay where we are, especially given we have been labeled the 6th overall team.

I understand the seeds aren't set, but they put it out there now, hard to justify doing that and then completely starting from scratch again. Why even do the seeding yesterday if it's completely hypothetical?

4-2 feels like a lock to keep 2 seed.

3-3 is 2/3 seed depending on who the wins and losses are to, how close the losses are, and what our seed competition does.

FWIW- this is the 3rd year of the sneak peek reveal. So we have 2 years worth of data

For the 8 one seeds….7 of the 8 stayed 1 seeds, the 8th was a 2. All 8 stayed in the same region they were originally slotted in.

The 2s
2024, unc moved to a 1(won out in the regular season after reveal), Kansas moved to a 4 (lost 5 of 8 after reveal)
2023: 3 stayed a 2. Baylor lost 4 of their last 6 and moved to a 3.

3s
2024 1 stayed the same, Alabama moved to a 4, lost 3 after the reveal, duke lost 2 and moved to a 4, Iowa state lost to and moved to a 2.

2023, one stayed, Iowa state moved to a 6 (lost 4 of last 5 to close the regular season), Virginia moved to a 4 (lost 2 of last 5), Tennessee moved to a 4 (lost 3 of last 5)

4s
2024 one stayed a 4, 1 moved to a 3, 2 moved to a 5
2023: one stayed, Xavier moved to a 3, Gonzaga won out and moved to a 3, Marquette won out and moved up to a 2.


Bottom line…. Outside of one move from a 3 to a 6, and one from a 4 to a 2, and one from an 2 to an 4, everyone stayed the same seed or moved 1 seed line.

Just finished putting this together for the Top 16. Also have the next 16 using Bracketmatrix current projections.

Belton Ag said:

---

ColoAg95 said:

---

If we drop four of the next six games, we will be a 4-5 seed. It's hard to lose to close the regular season and keep the two seed.

We have games against two 1-seeds, one 2-seed, one 8-seed, one 10-seed, and LSU. I think we need to go 4-2 in the last six to keep the 2 seed.

Best to look at this like we are in the tournament now. Man, it's hard to keep up that level of play for that long.I'd look at the SEC tourney like a tune-up game and get bench\underclassmen experience.

However it ends up, I've sure enjoyed this season. Great job guys!

---

I can see us dropping the MSU and Florida games on the road and winning the others. In that scenario, I think there's a great chance at retaining the #2 seed.

---

You see us realistically beating Auburn? That's a mighty tall order. I hope we just keep it close, but we have to play perfect.

It's them trying to emulate the stupid weekly CFP Ranking reveals. It's all a hype machine to stir up drama in the final stretch. Still way too much ball to be played

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

---

They will completely start over with the process next month. It's a decent indicator of where we are now if the season ended now but we have to keep winning.

A decent way to look at it, given our remaining schedule is the number of games we lose down the stretch will probably match our seed. So if we lose 2 games we are probably a 2 seed. It won't work that way for everyone, just saying based on where we are now and the schedule that's a quick way to think of it.

---

I tend to agree with this

If we go any worse than 4-2 I think we drop a seed line for every loss more than 2

This is about who can we pass if we only lose 1-2. Maybe UT or UF which would solidify our spot on the 2 line or possibly get us a 1

And who could catch us if we lose 2-3
Maybe Purdue, U of H, Kentucky which might land is on the 3 line
Lose 5 and a handful of teams could pass us and we could end up on the 4 line

GarryowenAg said:

---

Belton Ag said:

---

ColoAg95 said:

---

If we drop four of the next six games, we will be a 4-5 seed. It's hard to lose to close the regular season and keep the two seed.

We have games against two 1-seeds, one 2-seed, one 8-seed, one 10-seed, and LSU. I think we need to go 4-2 in the last six to keep the 2 seed.

Best to look at this like we are in the tournament now. Man, it's hard to keep up that level of play for that long.I'd look at the SEC tourney like a tune-up game and get bench\underclassmen experience.

However it ends up, I've sure enjoyed this season. Great job guys!

---

I can see us dropping the MSU and Florida games on the road and winning the others. In that scenario, I think there's a great chance at retaining the #2 seed.

---

You see us realistically beating Auburn? That's a mighty tall order. I hope we just keep it close, but we have to play perfect.

---

Realistically, sure. It's going to take a great game by everyone and probably an elite performance by Wade but we've gotten to Pearl's Auburn teams as underdogs in the past.

We go 6-0 and we're a #1. that's crazy to think we can be a #1 this close to seasons end. whst woukd that be to end the regular season- 13-1 including 9 tournament teams?

TjgtAg08 said:

---

I'll be a bit disappointed if we go 3-3 (assuming we don't lose to LSU or Vandy) and drop to a 3 seed.

---

I mean that's your choice. After the last 8 games, 3-3 and taking care of Vandy and LSU is a good result. We're going to play 3 top 10 teams in that stretch. All ranked ahead of us.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

---

FWIW- this is the 3rd year of the sneak peek reveal. So we have 2 years worth of data

The 2s
2024, unc moved to a 1(won out in the regular season after reveal), Kansas moved to a 4 (lost 5 of 8 after reveal)
2023: 3 stayed a 2. Baylor lost 4 of their last 6 and moved to a 3.

---

This is what people should be thinking about. Go 3-3 or better and at worse we'll be a 3 seed with a shot at a 2 seed. Go 4-2 or better and the worst case scenario should be a 2 seed with an outside chance at a 1 depending on which 1 seed / seeds we beat and what they do down the stretch.

3-3 gets us to 23-8 (12-6 in the toughest conference) with one of the top 5 best resumes overall in basketball.

AgLA06 said:

---

TjgtAg08 said:

---

I'll be a bit disappointed if we go 3-3 (assuming we don't lose to LSU or Vandy) and drop to a 3 seed.

---

I mean that's your choice. After the last 8 games, 3-3 and taking care of Vandy and LSU is a good result. We're going to play 3 top 10 teams in that stretch. All ranked ahead of us.

---

Oh, I won't be disappointed in going 3-3 (unless we get blown out in the losses), I'll be disappointed if going 3-3 drops us to a 3 seed, when 3-3 would probably be the expectation for any team in the current 2-4 seed range if they played our exact same schedule (except maybe Houston).

Even though I understand it was just a hypothetical "if Selection Sunday was today" exercise by the committee, that ranking show still put a stake in the ground and established a value/hierarchy for all those teams listed. So, to have to play 3 of the top 5 seeded teams in the next 3 weeks (of which none of the other teams have to do) as well as a 5/6 seed on the road (@MSST) and to be expected to win at least 2 of those 4 games to simply tread water in the eyes of the committee just feels a bit crappy.

Edit: Gotta give attention to Alabama's remaining schedule, which makes ours look like a cake walk. GOOD LORD.

Quote:

---

3-3 gets us to 23-8 (12-6 in the toughest conference) with one of the top 5 best resumes overall in basketball.

---

Thats why it would suck to be dropped to a 3 seed in that instance, because you are absolutely right regarding the resume.