With the return of one the basketball board's greatest traditions, ColleyvilleAg06's bubble watch, I'm going to shift the seed watch slightly this week to be more of a "seed maximization guide." Breaking down our current status, our projected status, and those of the teams we're up against.
I think a big problem with rankings in general is that when people look at them and don't have a deep understanding of the underlying data, it creates a sense of what you might call "false closeness." There's probably a better scientific term for this, but it creates the illusion that the gap from team 1 to team 2 is the same as the gap from team 2 to team 3, and that's most certainly not the case.
So from here on out, I'm going to try and break these teams into some tiers that might help people understand where the gaps are better.
Far ahead:
1-1 - Auburn (22-2, 15-3): Resume avg: 1 | Quality avg: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.2
Up next: at Alabama
Remaining: Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss, @Kentucky, @A&M, Alabama
Projected record: 27-4 (15-3)
1-2 - Duke (21-3, 13-1): Resume avg: 5 | Quality avg: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.5
Up next: vs Stanford
Remaining: @Virginia, N-Illinois, @Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, @North Carolina
Projected record: 27-4 (19-1)
After the win in Missouri, these two are no longer uncatchable, but still probably outside the realm of realistically catchable, but for different reasons. Auburn has already banked so many big wins and the SEC is so good that they can lose several games and it won't matter much. For Duke, their remaining schedule is just so bad that it's hard to imagine them losing enough games. They're likely to be favored by at least ten in every game but the Illinois game and possibly the UNC game. Also in Duke's corner, they beat Auburn earlier this year.
If these two hit their projected records, there's nothing anyone can do to catch them. But there is one thing that can stop Auburn from hitting that projected record, which brings us to...
Not so far ahead:
1-3 - Alabama (21-3, 10-1): Resume avg: 2 | Quality average: 5.3
Tourneycast projection: 1.6
Up next: vs Auburn
Remaining: @Mizzou, Kentucky, MSU, @Tennessee, Florida, @Auburn
Projected record: 25-6 (14-4)
1-4 - Houston (20-4, 12-1): Resume avg: 9 | Quality average: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.8
Up next: at Arizona
Remaining: @Arizona State, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Kansas, @Baylor
Projected record: 26-5 (18-2)
2-5 - Tennessee (20-5, 7-5): Resume avg: 5 | Quality average: 5
Tourneycast projection: 1.8
Up next: Vanderbilt
Remaining: @A&M, @LSU, Alabama, @Ole Miss, South Carolina
Projected record: 24-7 (11-7)
2-6 - Florida (21-3, 8-3): Resume avg: 3 | Quality average: 5.3
Tourneycast projection: also 1.8
Up next: South Carolina
Remaining: Oklahoma, @LSU, @Georgia, A&M, @Alabama, Ole Miss
Projected record: 26-5 (13-5)
Houston, Tennessee and Florida have something in common, and it's a shaky non-conference performance (relative to Alabama). Houston played a good schedule, but lost all of the big games (which is why their resume average is low) including losses to Alabama and Auburn. Tennessee played a good-but-not-great schedule but went undefeated against it, and Florida played a mediocre schedule but also went undefeated against it. Alabama on the other hand played the nation's 3rd toughest non-con schedule, and toughest overall schedule and still plays Auburn twice.
Alabama holds a crucial card for this discussion, a win over us on our home court. Yes, we know that game was without Wade Taylor, but that's probably not going to mean much to the committee. Alabama can also vault themselves into the top group by winning either of the Auburn games.
The good news here though is we play two of these teams. If we can outpace our projection by a couple of games, these teams are definitely catchable. And I'd argue that we catch this group without much outside help.
Big break here between those teams and the next group.
Battling:
2-7 - Purdue (19-6, 11-3) Resume avg: 7.3 | Quality avg: 8.3
Tourneycast projection: 2.7
Up next: Wisconsin
Remaining: @Michigan State, @Indiana, UCLA, Rutgers, @Illinois
Projected record: 23-8 (15-5)
2-8 - Texas A&M (19-5, 8-3) Resume avg: 6 | Quality avg: 14.3
Tourneycast projection: 3
Up next: Arkansas
Remaining: @Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vandy, @Florida, Auburn, @LSU
Projected record: 23-8 (12-6)
3-9 - Texas Tech (19-5, 10-3) Resume avg: 19 | Quality avg: 10
Tourneycast projection: 3
Up next: at Oklahoma State
Remaining: @TCU, WVU, Houston, @Kansas, Colorado, @Arizona State
Projected record: 24-7 (15-5)
3-10 Iowa State (19-5, 9-4) Resume Avg. 12.3 | Quality avg: 8.3
Tourneycast projection: 3.1
Up next: Cincinnati
Remaining: Colorado, @Houston, @Oklahoma State, Arizona, BYU, @Kansas State
Projected record: 24-7 (14-6)
How much do head-to-head results matter to this committee? They've been something of a wildcard in year's past, and especially when the head-to-head wins come on one team's home court, but could head-to-head wins over both Purdue and Tech, on neutral courts, be a tiebreaker here?
Also good news for A&M is that one thing the committee has basically always done is kill people with terrible non-con resumes, and Texas Tech's was the worst of any team under consideration up here (#290). Florida's is comparable at #248, but Florida at least went undefeated against theirs. Tennessee's is #123 and nobody else up here's is even above #100 until you get to Maryland with their truly impressive #325.
For me I think this is fairly simple, hit the projection, and we likely end up at the top of this group. I don't think Iowa State has enough quality games left to make a huge jump unless they pull off a huge upset and win at Houston.
That's why I now tend to agree with ColleyvilleAg06, until we start losing games, we want Purdue and Texas Tech to keep winning games.
Behind:
3 - 11 Arizona (17-7, 11-2) Resume avg: 20.3 | Quality average: 9.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.6
Up next: Houston
Remaining: @Baylor, BYU, Utah, @Iowa State, Arizona State, @Kansas
Projected record: 21-10 (15-5)
3 - 12 Kentucky (17-7, 6-5) Resume avg: 11.7 | Quality average: 18.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.8
Up next: at Texas
Remaining: Vandy, @Alabama, @Oklahoma, Auburn, LSU, @Mizzou
Projected record: 21-10 (10-8)
4 - 13 Kansas (17-7, 8-5) Resume avg: 16 | Quality average: 10.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.9
Up next: at Utah
Remaining: @BYU, Oklahoma State, @Colorado, Texas Tech, @Houston, Arizona
Projected record: 21-10 (12-8)
4 - 14 Illinois (17-8, 9-6) Resume avg: 30 | Quality average: 12
Tourneycast projection: 3.9
Up next: Michigan State
Remaining: @Wisconsin, N-Duke, Iowa, @Michigan, Purdue
Projected record: (20-11, 12-8)
These four teams all have remaining schedules that can make them a danger to jump up this list if they get on a heater, but if everyone plays to their projections this group will remain behind the others.
The next group:
4 - 14 - Missouri
4 - 15 - Michigan
4 - 16 - Maryland
5 - 17 - Wisconsin
Watch guide: (projected seed), team we're for
Saturday: 2/15
Vanderbilt (11) at Tennessee (2) - 12:00 PM - SECN
Wisconsin (5) at Purdue (2) - 12:00 PM - CBS
Houston (1) at Arizona (3) - 1:00 - ESPN - Little bit of a choose your own adventure here depending on how optimistic you are about how we're going to do down the stretch. I think the safer bet is to keep Arizona from grabbing this win.
Texas Tech (2) at Oklahoma State - 2:00 - ESPN+
Missouri (4) at Georgia (11) - 2:30 PM - SECN - The Mizzou road win is one of our biggest wins of the season, as long as we're winning games, we want Mizzou to win
***SEED WATCH GAME OF THE MILLINEUM OF THE CENTURY OF THE YEAR OF THE WEEK***
(1) Auburn at (1) Alabama - 3:00 - ESPN
Stanford at Duke (1) - 3:00 - ABC
Cincinnati at Iowa State (3) - 3:00 - ESPN2
***Underrated game of the week***
Mississippi State (7) at Ole Miss (5) - 5:00 - ESPN2
Michigan State (6) at Illinois (4) - 7:00 - FOX - What about Michigan State? Conspicuously missing from the seed watch, the Spartans projections aren't on par with their current status because they have an absolutely brutal closing slate. It's also an opportunity if they get hot, they're a team that could jump way up the board with no help, but every remaining game they have except for Iowa is against a Top 20 team. Let's have them beat Illinois and then start dropping games.
Kentucky (3) at Texas (9) - 7:00 - ESPN - I could put Texas in bold here, but would it matter? Look at this one as a win/win, either Kentucky falls further behind us, or Texas continues living in dangerous bubble waters.
South Carolina at Florida (1) - 7:30 - SECN
Kansas (4) at Utah - 9:00 - ESPN
Sunday: 2/16
Michigan (4) at Ohio State (8) - 12:00 PM - CBS
Creighton (7) at St. Johns (6) - 2:00 - FS1 - St. John's is another team you might be wondering why they're left off. They just don't have the metrics of the others and not enough big games left to make a big jump. If we're worried about St. John's is because we're undershooting the projection.
Iowa at Maryland (4) - 4:00 - FS1
Monday: 2/17
Duke (1) at Virginia - 7:00 - ESPN
Arizona (3) at Baylor (8) - 9 - ESPN - A 9 pm local tip is wild
I think a big problem with rankings in general is that when people look at them and don't have a deep understanding of the underlying data, it creates a sense of what you might call "false closeness." There's probably a better scientific term for this, but it creates the illusion that the gap from team 1 to team 2 is the same as the gap from team 2 to team 3, and that's most certainly not the case.
So from here on out, I'm going to try and break these teams into some tiers that might help people understand where the gaps are better.
Far ahead:
1-1 - Auburn (22-2, 15-3): Resume avg: 1 | Quality avg: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.2
Up next: at Alabama
Remaining: Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss, @Kentucky, @A&M, Alabama
Projected record: 27-4 (15-3)
1-2 - Duke (21-3, 13-1): Resume avg: 5 | Quality avg: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.5
Up next: vs Stanford
Remaining: @Virginia, N-Illinois, @Miami, Florida State, Wake Forest, @North Carolina
Projected record: 27-4 (19-1)
After the win in Missouri, these two are no longer uncatchable, but still probably outside the realm of realistically catchable, but for different reasons. Auburn has already banked so many big wins and the SEC is so good that they can lose several games and it won't matter much. For Duke, their remaining schedule is just so bad that it's hard to imagine them losing enough games. They're likely to be favored by at least ten in every game but the Illinois game and possibly the UNC game. Also in Duke's corner, they beat Auburn earlier this year.
If these two hit their projected records, there's nothing anyone can do to catch them. But there is one thing that can stop Auburn from hitting that projected record, which brings us to...
Not so far ahead:
1-3 - Alabama (21-3, 10-1): Resume avg: 2 | Quality average: 5.3
Tourneycast projection: 1.6
Up next: vs Auburn
Remaining: @Mizzou, Kentucky, MSU, @Tennessee, Florida, @Auburn
Projected record: 25-6 (14-4)
1-4 - Houston (20-4, 12-1): Resume avg: 9 | Quality average: 2
Tourneycast projection: 1.8
Up next: at Arizona
Remaining: @Arizona State, Iowa State, @Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Kansas, @Baylor
Projected record: 26-5 (18-2)
2-5 - Tennessee (20-5, 7-5): Resume avg: 5 | Quality average: 5
Tourneycast projection: 1.8
Up next: Vanderbilt
Remaining: @A&M, @LSU, Alabama, @Ole Miss, South Carolina
Projected record: 24-7 (11-7)
2-6 - Florida (21-3, 8-3): Resume avg: 3 | Quality average: 5.3
Tourneycast projection: also 1.8
Up next: South Carolina
Remaining: Oklahoma, @LSU, @Georgia, A&M, @Alabama, Ole Miss
Projected record: 26-5 (13-5)
Houston, Tennessee and Florida have something in common, and it's a shaky non-conference performance (relative to Alabama). Houston played a good schedule, but lost all of the big games (which is why their resume average is low) including losses to Alabama and Auburn. Tennessee played a good-but-not-great schedule but went undefeated against it, and Florida played a mediocre schedule but also went undefeated against it. Alabama on the other hand played the nation's 3rd toughest non-con schedule, and toughest overall schedule and still plays Auburn twice.
Alabama holds a crucial card for this discussion, a win over us on our home court. Yes, we know that game was without Wade Taylor, but that's probably not going to mean much to the committee. Alabama can also vault themselves into the top group by winning either of the Auburn games.
The good news here though is we play two of these teams. If we can outpace our projection by a couple of games, these teams are definitely catchable. And I'd argue that we catch this group without much outside help.
Big break here between those teams and the next group.
Battling:
2-7 - Purdue (19-6, 11-3) Resume avg: 7.3 | Quality avg: 8.3
Tourneycast projection: 2.7
Up next: Wisconsin
Remaining: @Michigan State, @Indiana, UCLA, Rutgers, @Illinois
Projected record: 23-8 (15-5)
2-8 - Texas A&M (19-5, 8-3) Resume avg: 6 | Quality avg: 14.3
Tourneycast projection: 3
Up next: Arkansas
Remaining: @Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vandy, @Florida, Auburn, @LSU
Projected record: 23-8 (12-6)
3-9 - Texas Tech (19-5, 10-3) Resume avg: 19 | Quality avg: 10
Tourneycast projection: 3
Up next: at Oklahoma State
Remaining: @TCU, WVU, Houston, @Kansas, Colorado, @Arizona State
Projected record: 24-7 (15-5)
3-10 Iowa State (19-5, 9-4) Resume Avg. 12.3 | Quality avg: 8.3
Tourneycast projection: 3.1
Up next: Cincinnati
Remaining: Colorado, @Houston, @Oklahoma State, Arizona, BYU, @Kansas State
Projected record: 24-7 (14-6)
How much do head-to-head results matter to this committee? They've been something of a wildcard in year's past, and especially when the head-to-head wins come on one team's home court, but could head-to-head wins over both Purdue and Tech, on neutral courts, be a tiebreaker here?
Also good news for A&M is that one thing the committee has basically always done is kill people with terrible non-con resumes, and Texas Tech's was the worst of any team under consideration up here (#290). Florida's is comparable at #248, but Florida at least went undefeated against theirs. Tennessee's is #123 and nobody else up here's is even above #100 until you get to Maryland with their truly impressive #325.
For me I think this is fairly simple, hit the projection, and we likely end up at the top of this group. I don't think Iowa State has enough quality games left to make a huge jump unless they pull off a huge upset and win at Houston.
That's why I now tend to agree with ColleyvilleAg06, until we start losing games, we want Purdue and Texas Tech to keep winning games.
Behind:
3 - 11 Arizona (17-7, 11-2) Resume avg: 20.3 | Quality average: 9.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.6
Up next: Houston
Remaining: @Baylor, BYU, Utah, @Iowa State, Arizona State, @Kansas
Projected record: 21-10 (15-5)
3 - 12 Kentucky (17-7, 6-5) Resume avg: 11.7 | Quality average: 18.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.8
Up next: at Texas
Remaining: Vandy, @Alabama, @Oklahoma, Auburn, LSU, @Mizzou
Projected record: 21-10 (10-8)
4 - 13 Kansas (17-7, 8-5) Resume avg: 16 | Quality average: 10.7
Tourneycast projection: 3.9
Up next: at Utah
Remaining: @BYU, Oklahoma State, @Colorado, Texas Tech, @Houston, Arizona
Projected record: 21-10 (12-8)
4 - 14 Illinois (17-8, 9-6) Resume avg: 30 | Quality average: 12
Tourneycast projection: 3.9
Up next: Michigan State
Remaining: @Wisconsin, N-Duke, Iowa, @Michigan, Purdue
Projected record: (20-11, 12-8)
These four teams all have remaining schedules that can make them a danger to jump up this list if they get on a heater, but if everyone plays to their projections this group will remain behind the others.
The next group:
4 - 14 - Missouri
4 - 15 - Michigan
4 - 16 - Maryland
5 - 17 - Wisconsin
Watch guide: (projected seed), team we're for
Saturday: 2/15
Vanderbilt (11) at Tennessee (2) - 12:00 PM - SECN
Wisconsin (5) at Purdue (2) - 12:00 PM - CBS
Houston (1) at Arizona (3) - 1:00 - ESPN - Little bit of a choose your own adventure here depending on how optimistic you are about how we're going to do down the stretch. I think the safer bet is to keep Arizona from grabbing this win.
Texas Tech (2) at Oklahoma State - 2:00 - ESPN+
Missouri (4) at Georgia (11) - 2:30 PM - SECN - The Mizzou road win is one of our biggest wins of the season, as long as we're winning games, we want Mizzou to win
***SEED WATCH GAME OF THE MILLINEUM OF THE CENTURY OF THE YEAR OF THE WEEK***
(1) Auburn at (1) Alabama - 3:00 - ESPN
Stanford at Duke (1) - 3:00 - ABC
Cincinnati at Iowa State (3) - 3:00 - ESPN2
***Underrated game of the week***
Mississippi State (7) at Ole Miss (5) - 5:00 - ESPN2
Michigan State (6) at Illinois (4) - 7:00 - FOX - What about Michigan State? Conspicuously missing from the seed watch, the Spartans projections aren't on par with their current status because they have an absolutely brutal closing slate. It's also an opportunity if they get hot, they're a team that could jump way up the board with no help, but every remaining game they have except for Iowa is against a Top 20 team. Let's have them beat Illinois and then start dropping games.
Kentucky (3) at Texas (9) - 7:00 - ESPN - I could put Texas in bold here, but would it matter? Look at this one as a win/win, either Kentucky falls further behind us, or Texas continues living in dangerous bubble waters.
South Carolina at Florida (1) - 7:30 - SECN
Kansas (4) at Utah - 9:00 - ESPN
Sunday: 2/16
Michigan (4) at Ohio State (8) - 12:00 PM - CBS
Creighton (7) at St. Johns (6) - 2:00 - FS1 - St. John's is another team you might be wondering why they're left off. They just don't have the metrics of the others and not enough big games left to make a big jump. If we're worried about St. John's is because we're undershooting the projection.
Iowa at Maryland (4) - 4:00 - FS1
Monday: 2/17
Duke (1) at Virginia - 7:00 - ESPN
Arizona (3) at Baylor (8) - 9 - ESPN - A 9 pm local tip is wild
