WARNING: Extreme Sunshine Pumping

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ColleyvilleAg06
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7:12p, 2/10/25
AG
If you think some on this board are unbearable now just think about where we could be in a week....

Caveat - we have to take care of our own business first and while we will be favored in both games this week, we have 2 legit tournament teams coming in. This post by no means assumes we beat both easily....just a what if we do look ahead.....

IF we do get to a 2-0 week and are riding a 5 game winning streak (7 of 8)....looking at who others around us play...imagine a scenario where (all of these are very possible)

#2 Alabama loses at Texas & against #1 Auburn
#3 Florida loses at #22 Mississippi State
#5 Tennessee loses at #15 Kentucky
#6 Houston loses at #13 Arizona
#7 Purdue loses at #20 Michigan (or against #16 Wisconsin later in the week)

and just for good measure #9 St. Johns loses to #24 Creighton....

A week from today we could be talking about #3 Texas A&M and a fairly unanimous #1 seed in most projections. All of these losses are well within the realm of reason and even if just 3 or 4 happen....AND we do what we need to do...this board will could have alot of sunshine pumping going on next week.

Also - one other thing to keep in mind...the committee releases their seed list for the top 16 teams on Saturday morning and it will be very interesting to see where A&M is with a month to go.

Final caveat - polls and even seeding projections in mid-February don't mean diddly squat.... but it could be fun to see this program soar to never before seen heights.
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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7:23p, 2/10/25
to me it's about peaking in late march and early april. while it would be fantastic to reach new heights as a program with abkut a month to go i like that we are still flying a bit under the radar if that's possible for a top 10 team. we just need to keep improving and peak during march madness.

all that said you scenario is not that outlandish and if we play well and win both games we should move up a few spots potentially more in the rankings.
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Emilio Fantastico
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7:46p, 2/10/25
AG
As long as we don't end up ranked #6 next week, we're good.
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HJack20
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8:21p, 2/10/25
AG
On the topic of sunshine pumping… given how this season has gone thus far, what kind of finish would you be happy with? Obviously winning it all is the goal, but making which round would make you say "great season, I'm happy with how things turned out"? I'd say playing in the Elite 8.
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bobinator
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In reply to HJack20 • 8:28p, 2/10/25
AG
Any season we make the Sweet 16 is a great season, but it would just come down to how we finish this last stretch and how we're ultimately eliminated.

Finish strong and land a 2-3 seed and some team in the second round just has some kind of out of body shooting night? It happens, that's basketball, nothing to be upset about. Good season.

Obviously the Elite Eight would be magical, but I'd settle for the Sweet 16 and not just getting absolutely roasted like the last two times.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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9:00p, 2/10/25
AG
Coming into the season and given how senior laden this team is….i expected to make the 2nd weekend (sweet 16), be about a 5 seed and to be in the top 3 of the sec/ be within striking distance of a possible conference championship headed to march. That was before I realized how strong the SEC would be. I would be thrilled with either a conference championship or elite 8 appearance, and disappointed if we didn't make the sweet 16 and/or were just a bubble team again this year

To this point of the season A&M has greatly exceeded my expectations to the point that I may be a bit disappointed if we don't reach the elite 8 just because I am not sure when we will have all the stars align to get to that height again. This could be a really special season. This season is so similar to 2007 for me….i was thrilled then to make the sweet 16 but looking back at what could have been I didn't realize how rare it is for all the stars to align like in seasons like this and you have to take advantage and make a run when they do.

And ya… I realize realistically I am setting myself up to be disappointed but that's just the kind of fan I am, I try to stay realistic but I am typically go in full of hope and ride the emotional journey and there will be time after the season to tell myself ya actually it was a pretty damn good season…. But as of right now I expect E8.
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Rec
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9:09p, 2/10/25
AG
Before this season started, I was amazed out how little buzz we had and how few posts there were.
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slatermikan
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9:21p, 2/10/25
Watching the recent games and last second wins and trying to imagine a comparable team and run and I'm starting to get the NC State 83 vibe. Tough as nails, veteran team gets hot while being consistently overlooked and underestimated. Wade is the Derek Whittenburg role of small, extremely confident shooter leading the way.
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jeremy
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In reply to Detmersdislocatedshoulder • 10:47p, 2/10/25
AG
Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
to me it's about peaking in late march and early april. while it would be fantastic to reach new heights as a program with abkut a month to go i like that we are still flying a bit under the radar if that's possible for a top 10 team. we just need to keep improving and peak during march madness.

all that said you scenario is not that outlandish and if we play well and win both games we should move up a few spots potentially more in the rankings.


The cool thing is, we can improve quiet a bit!
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BubblesMcGee
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5:10a, 2/11/25
AG
I like the NC State 1982-83 national championship team comparison. As ColleyvilleAg noted, it's fun to dream a bit (we don't get many chances)! I joined the NC State faculty in August '82 - yes, I'm an "old." The chemistry of that team coupled with Jim Valvano's charisma was tantalizing. Who can forget the sequence of Derek Whittenburg's airball and Lorenzo Charles' put back to beat #1 Houston followed by Jim Valvano running around the court to find someone to hug. "March Madness" at its best!

A couple of points brought out in the Wikipedia piece (see the last paragraph). Derek Whittenburg was injured and sat out much of the season. As a result, NC State struggled down the stretch and likely had to win the ACC tournament to make the dance. They did, indeed, win the ACC tournament but were only seeded six in the NCAA tournament. Of course, a magical series of mostly unlikely wins then occurred leading up to the championship game. Back to the analogy with our current team, I'd rather not see another injury to Wade Taylor but would certainly take everything else!

(I tried to link the Wikipedia summary of that team but the URL is bad. If you take the time to Google the 1982-83 NC State team, the read is interesting).
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JPAggie2010
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In reply to Rec • 7:25a, 2/11/25
AG
I agree, this season was weird from a hype standpoint altogether.

Me as part of the fan base: I think I was taking the wait-and-see approach with all the new transfers coming in. I was happy about Wade, the end of last season version of Manny, and Coleman all coming back - but didn't know our depth. I guess I was cautiously optimistic.

The media: They were giving us some love with our ranking, but not much from a conversational standpoint in the airtime top teams were receiving. They acknowledged us as a top 15 team at the beginning of the season, but then kept talking about us like a dark horse after we started pulling off some nice wins.

It was strange all around.
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AggByMarriage
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 8:09a, 2/11/25
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
…,
And ya… I realize realistically I am setting myself up to be disappointed but that's just the kind of fan I am, I try to stay realistic but I am typically go in full of hope and ride the emotional journey and there will be time after the season to tell myself ya actually it was a pretty damn good season…. But as of right now I expect E8.

Thanks… I think this sums up MOST of the basketball faithful who post here… I would say my expectations are:
32 10%
Sweet 16 30%
Elite 8 50%
Final 4 10%

I really don't think they drop the first game (especially at a 3 seed or better). The team is too mature to forget to play one game at a time and lose in the round of 32. Past that round, it really becomes how we match to the other team. Elite 8 would be…, well great. I am not thinking about anything past the Final Four because I will just work myself up onto a pink cloud.

My bigger concern is the SEC Tournament and not about how we play. RATHER, can we stay injury (and illness) free. Would rather come in 5th in the Tournament and everyone healthy.

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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to AggByMarriage • 8:30a, 2/11/25
AG
AggByMarriage said:
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
…,
And ya… I realize realistically I am setting myself up to be disappointed but that's just the kind of fan I am, I try to stay realistic but I am typically go in full of hope and ride the emotional journey and there will be time after the season to tell myself ya actually it was a pretty damn good season…. But as of right now I expect E8.

Thanks… I think this sums up MOST of the basketball faithful who post here… I would say my expectations are:
32 10%
Sweet 16 30%
Elite 8 50%
Final 4 10%

I really don't think they drop the first game (especially at a 3 seed or better). The team is too mature to forget to play one game at a time and lose in the round of 32. Past that round, it really becomes how we match to the other team. Elite 8 would be…, well great. I am not thinking about anything past the Final Four because I will just work myself up onto a pink cloud.

My bigger concern is the SEC Tournament and not about how we play. RATHER, can we stay injury (and illness) free. Would rather come in 5th in the Tournament and everyone healthy.



I am 100% ok with an 0-1 trip in the sec tournament. Could not care less and the only goal there is to stay healthy.
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halfastros81
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In reply to AggByMarriage • 8:38a, 2/11/25
AG
Being seeded at 4 or better in the SEC tourney would reduce the risks of fatigue and injuries considerably since the top 4 seeds get 2 rounds of byes and an extra bye vs seeds 5-8. Win 2 games as a top 4 seed and your'e the SEC tourney champ. Not a very fair setup I'd say since the margins are so thin in the conference this yr especially between say 3 & 10 or so . It potentially makes the sec tourney seeding kind of a big deal.
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Pumpkinhead
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8:48a, 2/11/25
AG
If you can't extreme sunshine pump in a season like this one, then when is it ever okay to extreme sunshine pump?

RE the NCAA tournament, If we are no worse than a 3-seed then of course the expectation would be to at least make it to the round of 32.

After that, as we all know it can become a lot about the matchups and even a bit of luck.

As good as the 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 teams were for example, and they were both really good teams that 'could' have certainly been Elite Eight or further teams, they both barely made it out of the 2nd round. The 2006-2007 team needed a Louisville freshman PG to miss some FTs and the 2015-2016 team needed the greatest 40 second comeback in NCAAT history.

This 2024-2025 team….it has a tendency to be in a LOT of really really close games coming down to a play or two in the last minute. Our poor FT shooting aggravates that situation. The games @OU, @Ole Miss, @Mizzou we won on a last second shot. The game @Texas was lost on a last second shot. I could squint my eyes and our current SEC record could be anywhere from 8-2 to 5-5 right now if a last second ball bounced a different way,

All the credit to the team to be 7-3 right now, very good team, a team that yes I could see with a chance for a deep tourney run. But it is also a team I could see losing in the second round because when you live on the edge then you can fall off the edge and this team seems to often live so very close to the edge.

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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to halfastros81 • 8:55a, 2/11/25
AG
halfastros81 said:
Being seeded at 4 or better in the SEC tourney would reduce the risks of fatigue and injuries considerably since the top 4 seeds get 2 rounds of byes and an extra bye vs seeds 5-8. Win 2 games as a top 4 seed and your'e the SEC tourney champ. Not a very fair setup I'd say since the margins are so thin in the conference this yr especially between say 3 & 10 or so . It potentially makes the sec tourney seeding kind of a big deal.


Top 4 seeds still play 3 games in 3 days if they keep winning. I am not going to be disappointed if we win… just saying if we are the #3 seed and we lose to Ole Miss our 1st game I'm going to be just fine knowing we get extra rest and aren't traveling back home on selection Sunday and can just be a rest day, scouting and ready to travel to the next site…
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halfastros81
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 8:59a, 2/11/25
AG
Agreed .
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CactusThomas
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9:14a, 2/11/25
AG
"#2 Alabama loses at Texas & against #1 Auburn
#3 Florida loses at #22 Mississippi State
#5 Tennessee loses at #15 Kentucky
#6 Houston loses at #13 Arizona
#7 Purdue loses at #20 Michigan (or against #16 Wisconsin later in the week)

and just for good measure #9 St. Johns loses to #24 Creighton...."


DO NOT parlay this
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El Mero Mero 14
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In reply to CactusThomas • 9:26a, 2/11/25
CactusThomas said:
"#2 Alabama loses at Texas & against #1 Auburn
#3 Florida loses at #22 Mississippi State
#5 Tennessee loses at #15 Kentucky
#6 Houston loses at #13 Arizona
#7 Purdue loses at #20 Michigan (or against #16 Wisconsin later in the week)

and just for good measure #9 St. Johns loses to #24 Creighton...."


DO NOT parlay this


Never threaten me with a good time.

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jah003
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 9:27a, 2/11/25
S
Would never happen… but I would love to see the SEC only send their bubble/non tourney teams to the SEC tournament. All the locks just stay home.
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El Mero Mero 14
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9:36a, 2/11/25
I actually messed up and forgot to put State over Florida, but let's get real nutty and put Creighton over UCONN.
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Aggies76
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In reply to BubblesMcGee • 10:06a, 2/11/25
AG
BubblesMcGee said:
I like the NC State 1982-83 national championship team comparison. As ColleyvilleAg noted, it's fun to dream a bit (we don't get many chances)! I joined the NC State faculty in August '82 - yes, I'm an "old." The chemistry of that team coupled with Jim Valvano's charisma was tantalizing. Who can forget the sequence of Derek Whittenburg's airball and Lorenzo Charles' put back to beat #1 Houston followed by Jim Valvano running around the court to find someone to hug. "March Madness" at its best!

A couple of points brought out in the Wikipedia piece (see the last paragraph). Derek Whittenburg was injured and sat out much of the season. As a result, NC State struggled down the stretch and likely had to win the ACC tournament to make the dance. They did, indeed, win the ACC tournament but were only seeded six in the NCAA tournament. Of course, a magical series of mostly unlikely wins then occurred leading up to the championship game. Back to the analogy with our current team, I'd rather not see another injury to Wade Taylor but would certainly take everything else!

(I tried to link the Wikipedia summary of that team but the URL is bad. If you take the time to Google the 1982-83 NC State team, the read is interesting).


I love that comparison too. I worked at NC State at the time and was rooting for the Wolfpack to win even though I'm a native Texan.
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GrayMatter
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10:27a, 2/11/25
AG
In my opinion, we're not where I can comfortably expect a S16, E8 or FF appearance. There's just too much work ahead and great opportunities to see how we perform against elite competition.

The ball has bounced our way against Ole Miss and Missouri to name a couple and has bounced against us at tu and even at UCF.

We're getting more confident as a group collectively which is what you want from a team heading into the backside of the conference schedule and beyond.

However, all these close games make me pause about being excited because we aren't dominating anyone. I get it that we're playing a competitive conference schedule, but we should be winning by a lot more. We're barely winning games on average by one possession or 2.9 point differential.

I'll feel better about it after taking care of business this week and see how we do against Tenn/Auburn/Florida to get excited about the seeding.
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CactusThomas
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10:40a, 2/11/25
AG
You will never be able to comfortably expect a S16 or better.

They call it March Madness, not the Spring Predictable
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GrayMatter
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10:43a, 2/11/25
AG
My only confident statement about this team is that we can absolutely play with anyone. That may be what we end up hanging our hat on.
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GrayMatter
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10:59a, 2/11/25
AG
Just adding more sunshine to the topic: I cannot remember a tournament where we will have played so many teams during the season that are predicted to make the tournament by Loonardi's latest bracket.

18 teams by my count!
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Emilio Fantastico
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In reply to CactusThomas • 10:59a, 2/11/25
AG
CactusThomas said:
You will never be able to comfortably expect a S16 or better.

They call it March Madness, not the Spring Predictable

To your point… from the NCAA website from last year's Sweet 16


On the men's side, Gonzaga earned its ninth straight trip to the Sweet 16, the longest active streak. The streak ranks tied with Duke (1998-2006) as the second-longest since 1975 the first year that all teams in the tournament were required to win at least one game to advance to the Sweet 16. North Carolina, which is back for the 31st time since the Sweet 16 was first recognized in 1975, owns the record with 13 in a row from 1981-93. Houston is making its fifth straight Sweet 16.
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slatermikan
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In reply to BubblesMcGee • 12:00p, 2/11/25
BubblesMcGee said:
I like the NC State 1982-83 national championship team comparison. As ColleyvilleAg noted, it's fun to dream a bit (we don't get many chances)! I joined the NC State faculty in August '82 - yes, I'm an "old." The chemistry of that team coupled with Jim Valvano's charisma was tantalizing. Who can forget the sequence of Derek Whittenburg's airball and Lorenzo Charles' put back to beat #1 Houston followed by Jim Valvano running around the court to find someone to hug. "March Madness" at its best!

A couple of points brought out in the Wikipedia piece (see the last paragraph). Derek Whittenburg was injured and sat out much of the season. As a result, NC State struggled down the stretch and likely had to win the ACC tournament to make the dance. They did, indeed, win the ACC tournament but were only seeded six in the NCAA tournament. Of course, a magical series of mostly unlikely wins then occurred leading up to the championship game. Back to the analogy with our current team, I'd rather not see another injury to Wade Taylor but would certainly take everything else!

(I tried to link the Wikipedia summary of that team but the URL is bad. If you take the time to Google the 1982-83 NC State team, the read is interesting).
Jealous you got to see that team up close---I started following them that year during the regular season as they began to win. Fun part of that regular season was the "experimental" 3-point line that was difference with each conference. ACC was using the 17'9'' line which actually cut between the free throw line and top of the key. With Sidney Lowe, Whittenburg and Terry Gannon off the bench, those guys lit it up!
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TombstoneTex
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6:58p, 2/11/25
AG
Crazy how close all these games are at the half
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ColleyvilleAg06
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7:05p, 2/11/25
AG
Yes… this may be one of the premier top level basketball windows of the whole season.

High impact games being played at a really high level and very close. Love the multiscreen to watch them all…
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