What a difference a week makes! The Aggies survive a tricky road game and with last weekend's carnage, teams that looked on the verge of being uncatchable are suddenly very catchable and teams we were battling with are suddenly on thin ice.
Selection Sunday is just six more Sundays away, let's dive in: (unless otherwise noted, all data, projections, etc are from BartTorvik.com). Next week I'm going to start including more of the metrics data for each of these teams.
Current Texas A&M Projection: 3 Seed
BracketMatrix Average: 2.8
Torvik Tourneycast Projection: 3.7
Projected remaining games:
@MZ - L | GA - W | Ark - W
@MSU - L | UT - W | Vandy - W
@UF - L | AU - L -| @LSU - W
Projected final record: 22-9 (11-7)
The uncatchables:
1-1 Auburn
2-1 Duke
3-1 Alabama
Chasing down:
4 - 1 - Tennessee: I think these next two road games are going to tell the story on whether or not Tennessee is catchable. If they win them both it gets hard to imagine us catching Tennessee without really outperforming our expectations (or them really underperforming theirs) down the stretch. Lose them both, things get really interesting fast.
5 - 2 - Houston: The Cougars rallied to avoid a really troubling loss at Oklahoma State which keeps them ahead of us for now, but they are not exactly standing on solid ground relative to the other teams here. Houston's 3 Q1 wins are the fewest of any team in the top 15 of the NET other than Gonzaga. The predictive metrics are strong here, but the resume metrics are lacking. Still, they have several more chances to get the ingredients they need.
Competing with:
6 - 2 - Texas Tech: What a week for the Red Raiders. Riding their win at Houston, Tech jumped all the way to #7 in the NET and is on a seven-game win streak heading into a massive game at Arizona on Saturday. It's one of just three games the rest of the way where Tech is likely to be an underdog.
7 -2 - Florida: There's so many teams to talk about that sometimes you tend of think of teams that are close to each other in the conference standings as having relatively similar resumes, but that's not the case for Florida. Unlike Auburn, Alabama and A&M, Florida did not play an elite non-conference schedule. (The same is also true of Tennessee but not the same extent.) As a result, Florida needs to do more in conference play to solidify a top two seed than the others. Huge game for the Gators on Saturday as they head to Auburn.
8 - 2 - Texas A&M: Non-con wins over Purdue, Texas Tech and Ohio State are the gifts that keep on giving for the Ags, and the path to a 2 seed is there for the taking, starting with an opportunity at Missouri on Saturday. The recent resurrection of Arkansas is also good news, because it means every remaining A&M opponent is in the top 50 except for the final game at LSU.
9 - 3 - Purdue: Purdue has only lost one game in 2025 and an absolutely clobbering of Michigan last Friday is helping boost their resume. Similar closing stretch to the Aggies with a mix of winnable games and some huge opportunities with only one real potentially not-great loss in the mix, but even that one, against Rutgers, could end up being fine.
10 - 3 - Kansas: Kansas still feels like a team that's just going to flip the switch at some point and become lethal. Their best performance in months came on Monday with a win over Iowa State. Now they have a series of... let's say uninspiring games (outside of a trip to BYU), before they close with three huge ones.
11 - 3 - Iowa State: Nobody had a worse week than the Cyclones (maybe Illinois), who went from feeling like they were a couple of games from uncatchable status to now needing to make up ground after getting thumped by both Kansas teams. Iowa State is entering a stretch of four games against teams unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament before a huge game at Houston.
12 - 3 - Arizona: Once upon a time Arizona lost 5 out of 7 in non-con and there was panic in the streets. They've now only lost one game since, and it was at Texas Tech. Arizona still has a hard road ahead though. Despite a current 10-1 record in the Big 12, they're projected for four more losses. They'll likely have to outperform those projections to climb into the two seed mix.
13 - 4 - Missouri: In the mix a year after a full Melvin where they didn't fire the coach is wild stuff, but here we are. Torvik has Missouri as the likely favorite in every remaining game. They're going to need almost all of them to stay in this mix. An awful non-con isn't going to help them except that they did pick up a win over Kansas.
14 - 4 - Maryland: The committee is going to absolutely kill Maryland for their non-conference but at this point they've stacked enough wins that they're worth considering here. Big three game stretch coming up against Ohio State tonight, then Rutgers and Nebraska. I have a hard time imagining Maryland making too big a jump up the board at this point, but stranger things have happened.
Keep an eye on:
Trending down: Illinois, Michigan State, Kentucky, Marquette - Kentucky feels especially shaky. They've lost 4 of 5 which includes losses to both Vandy and Arkansas though the win was over Tennessee on the road. I said last week that Michigan State had a tricky trip to LA, well they managed to lose both of those games which has them further down the board now. Illinois is going to be an odd team to slot in, but losses to Nebraska and Rutgers since the last update have them trending down. Marquette also dropped two games since last week's update.
Trending up: Ole Miss, Michigan, Wisconsin - Going to editorialize for just a second because i think people need to look out for Ole Miss to close the season. They've got three manageable games (by SEC standards) which includes the home game against State. If they win all three, they're going to be in the mix here on the 3-4 line before they try and take some big swings (similar to us) against Auburn, Tennessee and Florida in 3 of their last four games. Michigan has been on something of a mini-run but is a team to watch because they're about to go into a strech of games that includes home games against Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Maryland. There's wins on the table for Michigan if they can get them. And finally Wisconsin, whose only losses are road games at Marquette, Illinois, UCLA and Maryland and a home game against Michigan. And they've got a very manageable to try and land the plane and jump up the board.
Seed watch games of the week: (bracketmatrix projection if not listed above), teams we're for in bold
Thursday, 2/6:
(4) Maryland at Ohio State (9) - 6:00 - FS1
Friday, 2/7:
USC at Purdue (2) - 6:00 - FS1
St. Johns (6) at UCONN (8) - 7:00 - FOX
Saturday, 2/8:
(1) Tennessee at (9) Oklahoma - 11 AM - ESPN
TCU at (3) Iowa State - 11 AM - ESPN+
(5) Oregon at (3) Michigan State - 11 AM - FOX (brutal start time for Oregon)
(4) Wisconsin at Iowa - 12 PM - NBC
(6) Michigan at Indiana - 12 PM - CBS
(3) Marquette at (8) Creighton - 1 PM - FOX
(3) Kansas at Kansas State - 1 PM - ESPN
(2) Texas A&M at (4) Missouri - 2:30 - SECN - tough call here, don't want to hurt Mizzou's metrics, but I think we'd prefer to win
***Seed watch game of the week***
(2) Florida at (1) Auburn - 3 PM - ESPN2
(2) Houston at Colorado - 3 PM - ESPN+
(6) Mississippi State at Georgia - 5 PM - SECN
(5) Illinois at Minnesota - 5 PM - BTN
(1) Duke at (7) Clemson - 5:30 - ESPN - Only putting this on here because Duke only has two remaining games where the line is likely to be less than 10. Hell they only have four where it's likely to be less than 15. Plus Clemson lost to South Carolina so it would be hilarious if they won the ACC.
***Vibey game of the week***
(1) Alabama at (B) Arkansas - 7:30 - ESPN
(5) Ole Miss at LSU - 7:30 - SECN
***Very important game that nobody will watch of the week***
(2) Texas Tech at (3) Arizona - 9:30 PM - ESPN
Selection Sunday is just six more Sundays away, let's dive in: (unless otherwise noted, all data, projections, etc are from BartTorvik.com). Next week I'm going to start including more of the metrics data for each of these teams.
Current Texas A&M Projection: 3 Seed
BracketMatrix Average: 2.8
Torvik Tourneycast Projection: 3.7
Projected remaining games:
@MZ - L | GA - W | Ark - W
@MSU - L | UT - W | Vandy - W
@UF - L | AU - L -| @LSU - W
Projected final record: 22-9 (11-7)
The uncatchables:
1-1 Auburn
2-1 Duke
3-1 Alabama
Chasing down:
4 - 1 - Tennessee: I think these next two road games are going to tell the story on whether or not Tennessee is catchable. If they win them both it gets hard to imagine us catching Tennessee without really outperforming our expectations (or them really underperforming theirs) down the stretch. Lose them both, things get really interesting fast.
5 - 2 - Houston: The Cougars rallied to avoid a really troubling loss at Oklahoma State which keeps them ahead of us for now, but they are not exactly standing on solid ground relative to the other teams here. Houston's 3 Q1 wins are the fewest of any team in the top 15 of the NET other than Gonzaga. The predictive metrics are strong here, but the resume metrics are lacking. Still, they have several more chances to get the ingredients they need.
Competing with:
6 - 2 - Texas Tech: What a week for the Red Raiders. Riding their win at Houston, Tech jumped all the way to #7 in the NET and is on a seven-game win streak heading into a massive game at Arizona on Saturday. It's one of just three games the rest of the way where Tech is likely to be an underdog.
7 -2 - Florida: There's so many teams to talk about that sometimes you tend of think of teams that are close to each other in the conference standings as having relatively similar resumes, but that's not the case for Florida. Unlike Auburn, Alabama and A&M, Florida did not play an elite non-conference schedule. (The same is also true of Tennessee but not the same extent.) As a result, Florida needs to do more in conference play to solidify a top two seed than the others. Huge game for the Gators on Saturday as they head to Auburn.
8 - 2 - Texas A&M: Non-con wins over Purdue, Texas Tech and Ohio State are the gifts that keep on giving for the Ags, and the path to a 2 seed is there for the taking, starting with an opportunity at Missouri on Saturday. The recent resurrection of Arkansas is also good news, because it means every remaining A&M opponent is in the top 50 except for the final game at LSU.
9 - 3 - Purdue: Purdue has only lost one game in 2025 and an absolutely clobbering of Michigan last Friday is helping boost their resume. Similar closing stretch to the Aggies with a mix of winnable games and some huge opportunities with only one real potentially not-great loss in the mix, but even that one, against Rutgers, could end up being fine.
10 - 3 - Kansas: Kansas still feels like a team that's just going to flip the switch at some point and become lethal. Their best performance in months came on Monday with a win over Iowa State. Now they have a series of... let's say uninspiring games (outside of a trip to BYU), before they close with three huge ones.
11 - 3 - Iowa State: Nobody had a worse week than the Cyclones (maybe Illinois), who went from feeling like they were a couple of games from uncatchable status to now needing to make up ground after getting thumped by both Kansas teams. Iowa State is entering a stretch of four games against teams unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament before a huge game at Houston.
12 - 3 - Arizona: Once upon a time Arizona lost 5 out of 7 in non-con and there was panic in the streets. They've now only lost one game since, and it was at Texas Tech. Arizona still has a hard road ahead though. Despite a current 10-1 record in the Big 12, they're projected for four more losses. They'll likely have to outperform those projections to climb into the two seed mix.
13 - 4 - Missouri: In the mix a year after a full Melvin where they didn't fire the coach is wild stuff, but here we are. Torvik has Missouri as the likely favorite in every remaining game. They're going to need almost all of them to stay in this mix. An awful non-con isn't going to help them except that they did pick up a win over Kansas.
14 - 4 - Maryland: The committee is going to absolutely kill Maryland for their non-conference but at this point they've stacked enough wins that they're worth considering here. Big three game stretch coming up against Ohio State tonight, then Rutgers and Nebraska. I have a hard time imagining Maryland making too big a jump up the board at this point, but stranger things have happened.
Keep an eye on:
Trending down: Illinois, Michigan State, Kentucky, Marquette - Kentucky feels especially shaky. They've lost 4 of 5 which includes losses to both Vandy and Arkansas though the win was over Tennessee on the road. I said last week that Michigan State had a tricky trip to LA, well they managed to lose both of those games which has them further down the board now. Illinois is going to be an odd team to slot in, but losses to Nebraska and Rutgers since the last update have them trending down. Marquette also dropped two games since last week's update.
Trending up: Ole Miss, Michigan, Wisconsin - Going to editorialize for just a second because i think people need to look out for Ole Miss to close the season. They've got three manageable games (by SEC standards) which includes the home game against State. If they win all three, they're going to be in the mix here on the 3-4 line before they try and take some big swings (similar to us) against Auburn, Tennessee and Florida in 3 of their last four games. Michigan has been on something of a mini-run but is a team to watch because they're about to go into a strech of games that includes home games against Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois and Maryland. There's wins on the table for Michigan if they can get them. And finally Wisconsin, whose only losses are road games at Marquette, Illinois, UCLA and Maryland and a home game against Michigan. And they've got a very manageable to try and land the plane and jump up the board.
Seed watch games of the week: (bracketmatrix projection if not listed above), teams we're for in bold
Thursday, 2/6:
(4) Maryland at Ohio State (9) - 6:00 - FS1
Friday, 2/7:
USC at Purdue (2) - 6:00 - FS1
St. Johns (6) at UCONN (8) - 7:00 - FOX
Saturday, 2/8:
(1) Tennessee at (9) Oklahoma - 11 AM - ESPN
TCU at (3) Iowa State - 11 AM - ESPN+
(5) Oregon at (3) Michigan State - 11 AM - FOX (brutal start time for Oregon)
(4) Wisconsin at Iowa - 12 PM - NBC
(6) Michigan at Indiana - 12 PM - CBS
(3) Marquette at (8) Creighton - 1 PM - FOX
(3) Kansas at Kansas State - 1 PM - ESPN
(2) Texas A&M at (4) Missouri - 2:30 - SECN - tough call here, don't want to hurt Mizzou's metrics, but I think we'd prefer to win
***Seed watch game of the week***
(2) Florida at (1) Auburn - 3 PM - ESPN2
(2) Houston at Colorado - 3 PM - ESPN+
(6) Mississippi State at Georgia - 5 PM - SECN
(5) Illinois at Minnesota - 5 PM - BTN
(1) Duke at (7) Clemson - 5:30 - ESPN - Only putting this on here because Duke only has two remaining games where the line is likely to be less than 10. Hell they only have four where it's likely to be less than 15. Plus Clemson lost to South Carolina so it would be hilarious if they won the ACC.
***Vibey game of the week***
(1) Alabama at (B) Arkansas - 7:30 - ESPN
(5) Ole Miss at LSU - 7:30 - SECN
***Very important game that nobody will watch of the week***
(2) Texas Tech at (3) Arizona - 9:30 PM - ESPN
