excuse my ignorance- who or what is jbr bracketology?

random internet guy?

I think a big key if it's close is we need to finish ahead of Tennessee and Florida in the SEC standings.

I just have a hard time envisioning the committee giving more than half of the top 8 seeds to one conference, no matter how much the data says they should.

Alabama and Auburn are all but locks, and their non-con SOSs were even better than ours, but that's not the case with Florida and Tennessee.

bobinator said:

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I think a big key if it's close is we need to finish ahead of Tennessee and Florida in the SEC standings.

I just have a hard time envisioning the committee giving more than half of the top 8 seeds to one conference, no matter how much the data says they should.

Alabama and Auburn are all but locks, and their non-con SOSs were even better than ours, but that's not the case with Florida and Tennessee.

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Im skeptical too given what the committee has done in previous years. Computers are one thing, but when it comes down to humans, they're gonna hesitate and someone is gonna get a lower seed they didn't deserve. I hope it's not us and I don't think it will be.

It's gonna come down to non-conference schedule when deciding SEC teams' seeds.

I can see us ending up with being behind Tennessee and Florida in the SEC standings and get a better seed than them come tournament time.

And if anyone beats anyone else on the road (or beats Auburn). Tennessee and Florida both blitzed each other on their home courts.

I will have some of what you guys are drinking. Pass that my way.

bobinator said:

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I typed out a "path to a two seed" post earlier and then decided against it, lol.

I think we need 3/5 of @Mizzou, @MSU, Tennessee, @Florida and Auburn and that's assuming you sweep all the other games.

It's a narrow path, but there is a path.

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I can see that!

Tennessee, Auburn and @MSU could certainly be wins (or blowout losses but I digress).

I think 3 is most likely outcome. But I'm predicting a strong finish (7-2) gets us a 2 seed...

GrayMatter said:

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bobinator said:

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I think a big key if it's close is we need to finish ahead of Tennessee and Florida in the SEC standings.

I just have a hard time envisioning the committee giving more than half of the top 8 seeds to one conference, no matter how much the data says they should.

Alabama and Auburn are all but locks, and their non-con SOSs were even better than ours, but that's not the case with Florida and Tennessee.

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Im skeptical too given what the committee has done in previous years. Computers are one thing, but when it comes down to humans, they're gonna hesitate and someone is gonna get a lower seed they didn't deserve. I hope it's not us and I don't think it will be.

It's gonna come down to non-conference schedule when deciding SEC teams' seeds.

I can see us ending up with being behind Tennessee and Florida in the SEC standings and get a better seed than them come tournament time.

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I can see that as well

Actual Conference standings don't mean much when it comes to selections and seeding

Usually they don't matter at all, I just think we could potentially end up in an unprecedented situation.

bobinator said:

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Usually they don't matter at all, I just think we could potentially end up in an unprecedented situation.

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I can definitely see seeding adjustments for sec teams because there will be so many sec teams in the dance and they'll need to avoid sec teams matching up within the first 2 rounds

The Big Ten teams are going to be a problem too, especially because the two conferences had so many games against each other.

Not trying to be an AH but what makes you think we have any shot at being blown out? UK was as far apart as we've been all year and that was only at the end. This is an elite defensive team. I can definitely see us losing but see very little path to being blown out. UF is about it.

bobinator said:

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The Big Ten teams are going to be a problem too, especially because the two conferences had so many games against each other.

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Yeah, it's crazy that about a third of the entire field is likely going to be from only 2 conferences

committee may or may not take into account we have 1 loss (2 if counting Oregon) with all starters playing and that was a road game we controlled til the final minutes

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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I think 3 is most likely outcome. But I'm predicting a strong finish (7-2) gets us a 2 seed...

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There'd be a very solid case for A&M to be a 1 seed if we finish 13-5. I'd guess our metrics cost us that chance but our blind resume would support it.

I feel like 7-2 down the stretch would do it provided we win 2 of 3 vs Tennessee, Florida , and Auburn. One loss out of those 3 games + one other loss . Sweep those three games ( tenn, fl, aub) and only lose 2 other games would also do it imo.

Some Surprise L's by Mi St and Kansas wouldn't hurt either .

Edited to say we got a "surprise " L from Mi St last night.

The 2 Seed hype train is picking up steam...fifth best resume average in the country.

Top 25 Resumes in CBB - 2/4/25

Resume average (SOR + KPI + WAB)/3. Just math, no opinions.

What stands out? pic.twitter.com/uywcebBpbn

— T3 Bracketology™️🏀 (@T3Bracketology) February 4, 2025

t - cam said:

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Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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I think 3 is most likely outcome. But I'm predicting a strong finish (7-2) gets us a 2 seed...

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There'd be a very solid case for A&M to be a 1 seed if we finish 13-5. I'd guess our metrics cost us that chance but our blind resume would support it.

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Yeah if we get to 13-5 that would mean, at minimum, 3 wins from the group of @Mizzou, @MSST, Tennessee, Auburn, @UF (assuming we win the other home games at @LSU). And, on top of that, it would mean at minimum a road win against Mizzou, MSST or Florida ... add that on to wins against Tennessee and Auburn and thats a 1 seed resume.

If we do that, the metrics would work themselves out to also be 1-seed material. 13-5 probably gets us 3rd in the SEC, a NET and Kenpom rating in the Top 10, a Top 5 efficiency defense and a Top 25 efficiency offense and potentially 4 more Q1 wins.

Feels highly unlikely we do that, but its not impossible. If we are able to somehow beat Mizzou, I'll start feeling like 13-5 is a reality.

I think MSST has very quietly started to "come back to earth" a little bit, and they have tough stretch of games right before us, so that game could be a little bit easier than we thought it would be 2 weeks ago. The Tennessee game feels the same way ... they are a bit more Jekyll/Hyde home vs away this year than they've been in the past, and we've had their number at Reed.

Edit: I think the other thing that would help us in that scenario (regarding getting a 1 seed) is that there aren't a bunch of other teams from other conferences with "1-seed resumes." Other than Duke and Houston, the other potential 1 seeds are all from the SEC (at this point) - Auburn, Bama, Tennessee, Florida.

Lunardi joins the A&M as a 2 seed crowd.

Detective Jake Peralta said:

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The 2 Seed hype train is picking up steam...fifth best resume average in the country.

Top 25 Resumes in CBB - 2/4/25

Resume average (SOR + KPI + WAB)/3. Just math, no opinions.

What stands out? pic.twitter.com/uywcebBpbn

— T3 Bracketology™️🏀 (@T3Bracketology) February 4, 2025

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I understand that it's just math, but it seems odd that A&M is 5 and Iowa State is 12.

Michigan St is also puzzling here... ISU has stronger wins.