Long story short…yes I think the blowouts impact NET more than the NCAA even wanted it to.

They took out margin of victory completely a few years ago for that very reason.

That's last year's NET SOS on Warren Nolan.

bobinator said:

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That's last year's NET SOS on Warren Nolan.

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Ah yeah, weird that it defaults to last season for me. I'm dumb.

bobinator said:

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They took out margin of victory completely a few years ago for that very reason.

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Oh yeah I remember that now. I got thrown off by reading old articles about the original verion.

NET has only two components now, adjusted net efficiency, and "Total Value Index" which is where some kind of adjustment for "quality wins" happens

Apprarently TVI is an "Algorithm set up to reward teams who beat other good teams."

I think just from that we can infer thats its a fudge factor to account for if they need Notre Dame to have a better number than Texas A&M at any point…

Going to mostly all net efficiency doesnt exactly reduce the impact of margin of victory though. Ignoring whatever TVI does, by going to all efficiency, they essentially dialed up margin of victory to being everything whereas before it was a factor being input with efficiency and then also input again because they used it in winning percentage in a small amount. Throwing out the winning percentage part made margin of victory more impactful unless they changed TVI to compensate

The super secret algorithm is basically a big game bonus.

You can't dial out margin of victory in efficiency though, at least not easily and without creating whole new problems.

I mostly think the NET is fine. You get a weird anomaly or two each year but that's gonna happen.

I do wish there was some kind of Tier 1 NET that they'd use late in the season that just drops the data against any teams ranked below 100 to better compare the bubble teams.

You'd still need the main NET to factor in teams that last some of those games, but at least in theory, to me, seems like it would be a useful tool when comparing the bubble teams that are close together in the base NET.

I mean Im pro efficiency, thats almost all I look at so I say "Good!"

It means your net scoring means more than winning and losing as it pertains to that number. It means winning 64-63 is almost exactly the same impact as losing 63-64, so people need to understand that your NET goes up when you upset a team not because you won (except the TVI bonus) but because it expected you to lose by a lot and you wouldve also got a bump by losing by 1

Arkansas gets their much needed quality non conference win, holding off Michigan at Madison Square Garden.

Arkansas has three games remaining vs sub-100 teams before starting up SEC play. Assuming the Hogs win those three, 8-10 in SEC play should be enough to earn a Tourney… https://t.co/mlaLygTQGl

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) December 11, 2024

Arkansas has three games remaining vs sub-100 teams before starting up SEC play. Assuming the Hogs win those three, 8-10 in SEC play should be enough to earn a Tourney bid.... With each additional win moving them up 4-6 spots in the overall seed list.

Not a bad loss for Michigan, but does hurt their chances at a protected seed (Top 16 overall). Wolverines have been very impressive under new Coach Dusty May - look like a 5-6 seed to me come March.

SOS?

Any chance as the season goes on of UCF falling to a q3 loss?

NyAggie said:

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Any chance as the season goes on of UCF falling to a q3 loss?

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Anything is possible. I think it's a much better chance it's a Q1 loss than a Q3 loss

PJYoung said:

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SOS?

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Yeah

It's also not going to matter.

The non conference SOS rankings I am finding have A&M quite a bit higher than 41, and most above us are P5 teams.


Where is the 41 and the fact 41 would be high for a p5 team
Coming from?

There are 32 teams that have played 4 or more quad 1 games. 10 of those are teams like bob mentioned.

I think I was reading this was our best non conference schedule ever, in some cases people said "by far", but on the Walter Nolan site our NET non conference SOS is 44 this year and was 21 last year. (248 in 2023 and 190 in 2022, we've made a huge jump in quality)

Maybe I misinterpreted and people are saying it's the most successful non con given the competition, we weren't as successful last year. Also, despite the schedule hype we've "only" played 3 quad 1's compared to the 4 plus from 32 other schools, as mentioned by miller above.

From a quick count I was a little off, 41 puts us at 20th among power conference teams

Well you don't know what everyone else is going to do when you're making preseason declarations, and the numbers also aren't done.

I think this is probably up there with our best non con performances and scheduling but I don't think it's clear cut. I think it was '16 and '17 where we had good ones too. But this is probably easily the best under Buzz.

Torvik and KenPom also like our schedule a lot more than the NET does so far.

I love the schedule and the results, but I think it's my fault I was shocked to see a 41st ranking of NET SOS (expecting it to be much better ranking wise). I was perhaps overrating it, in part because last year and this year still feel like unfamiliar territory as far as non con scheduling.

Complete Idiot said:

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I think I was reading this was our best non conference schedule ever, in some cases people said "by far", but on the Walter Nolan site our NET non conference SOS is 44 this year and was 21 last year. (248 in 2023 and 190 in 2022, we've made a huge jump in quality)

Maybe I misinterpreted and people are saying it's the most successful non con given the competition, we weren't as successful last year. Also, despite the schedule hype we've "only" played 3 quad 1's compared to the 4 plus from 32 other schools, as mentioned by miller above.

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UCF, Rutgers and Wake have the power 5 component to their name, but none are really knocking on the door of a tourney bid. The UCF loss isn't a bad loss, but it's also not really a good loss either right now. Of the 25 teams ahead of us in the NET, the only 2 losses arguably worse than that are UCLA's loss to New Mexico and Uconn's loss to Colorado.

Creighton may be the most disappointing team in the nation thus far considering they were preseason #15 in the AP poll.

That would be my take on the lower than expected SOS.

bobinator said:

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Last year we were in the 20s but with 4 losses, this year we're in the low 40's currently but with only two.

I also think we've played some teams whose numbers are going to get better. Creighton and Rutgers especially.

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That makes sense - when we beat teams this early in the season there are so few games that it actually.... hurts our own SOS.

Maryland has gone full 2023-24 Big 12:

-Play a terrible non conference schedule
-Lose to the only good team(s) you play in the non conference
-Blow the doors off every Q4 game you play
-Top 10 NET
-Profit https://t.co/zS3Yqy4nwa

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) December 18, 2024

What a stat.

Of Duke's 19 remaining conference games, only 4 are Quad 1 games. https://t.co/5UUSun7VFO

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) December 18, 2024

Literally all of our conference road games will probably be Quad 1.