You can win with this lineup

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bobinator
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In reply to GrayMatter • 8:41a, 11/5/24
AG
The difference between us fighting for our lives on the bubble or potentially being a top four seed really comes down to three players, Manny, Phelps and Payne.

Everyone else is mostly a known quantity or is a freshman and it would be surprising if they contribute. Maybe Solo still has more in there that he hasn't tapped into yet, but that's really it.

Last night Manny was terrible, Payne was really good but fouled out with like five minutes left and Phelps didn't play. We aren't going to be a really good if that's how those three go. It's really that simple right?
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bobinator
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In reply to justsomeguy • 8:48a, 11/5/24
AG
justsomeguy said:
I've really liked Hefner's grit and determination over the years. That being said, the offense was noticeably stagnant when he was in the game. Every touch he had the defense expanded as if they knew not to respect him and they are right unfortunately.
I convinced myself last night that the reason Buzz keeps Hefner around is as a criticism shield for Manny.

Everyone is talking about Hefner's minutes, and yeah, he was bad, but Manny was an absolutely disaster last night and that's a player that we're counting on to be good. We're not counting on Hefner to be good, at best we're counting on him to just give you ten minutes without being a disaster. But Manny is supposed to be one of the main contributors on this team and he was actively giving the ball to the other team.

Between Hefner, Carter, and Manny last night we got 9 points (7 were Carter's) on 3/12 shooting, 2-4 FTs (all Carter), 9 rebounds (6 were Carter's), 2 assists, 5 turnovers and 7 fouls in 59 minutes.
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AggieCrew44
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In reply to bobinator • 8:50a, 11/5/24
AG
bobinator said:
justsomeguy said:
I've really liked Hefner's grit and determination over the years. That being said, the offense was noticeably stagnant when he was in the game. Every touch he had the defense expanded as if they knew not to respect him and they are right unfortunately.
I convinced myself last night that the reason Buzz keeps Hefner around is as a criticism shield for Manny.

Everyone is talking about Hefner's minutes, and yeah, he was bad, but Manny was an absolutely disaster last night and that's a player that we're counting on to be good. We're not counting on Hefner to be good, at best we're counting on him to just give you ten minutes without being a disaster. But Manny is supposed to be one of the main contributors on this team and he was actively giving the ball to the other team.

Between Hefner, Carter, and Manny last night we got 9 points (7 were Carter's) on 3/12 shooting, 2-4 FTs (all Carter), 9 rebounds (6 were Carter's), 2 assists, 5 turnovers and 7 fouls in 59 minutes.
Hef is often a net negative. He was sorta just neutral last night. Thought he actually improved his defense noticeably

Last year guys would flat out blow by him. He at least was offering some resistance yesterday
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Proposition Joe
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9:05a, 11/5/24
Hefner played 14 minutes, went 0-3 from the field, committed 2 turnovers, committed 2 fouls, got 2 rebounds and 1 assist.

In no world is that neutral.
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AggieCrew44
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 9:12a, 11/5/24
AG
Proposition Joe said:
Hefner played 14 minutes, went 0-3 from the field, committed 2 turnovers, committed 2 fouls, got 2 rebounds and 1 assist.

In no world is that neutral.
It absolutely was. He wasn't a glaring hole on defense, which has been everyone's gripe for years

I can live with no offensive production. He is what he is at this point. You can't be a disaster on defense also
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to AggieCrew44 • 9:16a, 11/5/24
AggieCrew44 said:
Proposition Joe said:
Hefner played 14 minutes, went 0-3 from the field, committed 2 turnovers, committed 2 fouls, got 2 rebounds and 1 assist.

In no world is that neutral.
It absolutely was. He wasn't a glaring hole on defense, which has been everyone's gripe for years

I can live with no offensive production. He is what he is at this point. You can't be a disaster on defense also

If you're playing 14 minutes with a net negative production (2 turnovers, 2 fouls, 2 rebounds, 1 assist) then you better be an elite defender.

And he is not that, nor anything close to that last night. In just the 2nd half he was late rotating and gave up a clean look from 3, and failed to box out and gave up a put back slam. He still routinely gets beat off the dribble.

If you want to make the case that Hefner "wasn't that bad" or "not as bad as we've seen him be", have at it.

Claiming he was neutral is just statistically incorrect.
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AggieCrew44
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 9:19a, 11/5/24
AG
He was a +9 last night. He didn't do much but he also wasn't a glaring hole like he has been in the past
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bobinator
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9:22a, 11/5/24
AG
He was only a net neutral grading on a Hefner curve. I'd probably argue he wasn't as bad as Manny because Manny possessed the ball a lot more, but they were both terrible.
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AggieCrew44
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In reply to bobinator • 9:26a, 11/5/24
AG
bobinator said:
He was only a net neutral grading on a Hefner curve. I'd probably argue he wasn't as bad as Manny because Manny possessed the ball a lot more, but they were both terrible.
This is probably what I'm getting at. He didn't help but he didn't necessarily kill us either like he has in the past
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to AggieCrew44 • 10:01a, 11/5/24
AggieCrew44 said:
He was a +9 last night. He didn't do much but he also wasn't a glaring hole like he has been in the past

Using +/- in a one game sample shows a complete lack of understanding of the statistic.

If you want to say he's not as bad as he has been, that's fine. But saying he was neutral is simply false.
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Proposition Joe
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In reply to bobinator • 10:06a, 11/5/24
bobinator said:
He was only a net neutral grading on a Hefner curve. I'd probably argue he wasn't as bad as Manny because Manny possessed the ball a lot more, but they were both terrible.

That's kind of the thing with my Hefner "obsession". Do I think he's one of the Top 3-4 things wrong with this team or why we lose a specific game? No.

But he's a glaring example of how despite Buzz constantly preaching "the little things", he doesn't actually practice it. The little things like getting a guy that might come off the bench and get you 5pts/game instead of 2 can make a difference. The guy that might come off the bench as a 90% free throw shooter instead of a 60% shooter can make a difference.

In regards to Manny - there is no doubt there are glaring issues with him that should/need to be improved. But the very obvious difference between the two is when Manny is "on", he's a very valuable player. When Hefner is "on", he's replacement level.
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bobinator
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 10:16a, 11/5/24
AG
Yeah, and I get why people hate seeing Hefner on the court, I've just accepted it as some sort of universal constant.

Last year you could at least make the case at times that he was a decent option because he started the year hot from three and all of our other options were bad. He was shooting like 40% through non-conference play or something.

I'm just telling myself this is Buzz doing an early season "you have to earn it" bit with Wilcher or something because there's no reason for Hefner to play 14 minutes and Wilcher to only play 11. Maybe Wilcher doesn't fully get the defense yet or something and Buzz is trying to prove a point or whatever, but Wilcher is the player we have hoped for half a decade that Hefner could become.
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GrayMatter
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In reply to bobinator • 10:17a, 11/5/24
AG
bobinator said:
The difference between us fighting for our lives on the bubble or potentially being a top four seed really comes down to three players, Manny, Phelps and Payne.

Everyone else is mostly a known quantity or is a freshman and it would be surprising if they contribute. Maybe Solo still has more in there that he hasn't tapped into yet, but that's really it.

Last night Manny was terrible, Payne was really good but fouled out with like five minutes left and Phelps didn't play. We aren't going to be a really good if that's how those three go. It's really that simple right?
I talked myself in and out of that thought and ultimately decided that it's too early to tell. I see the line of thinking with that because we know what we're getting out of all the other players and the wild card player has always been Manny. Payne brings a dimension that we have been sorely missing.

I've seen Phelps play before but until I see him in an Aggie uniform out on the court with everyone else, it's a TBD situation.

Solo had a nice baseline drive to the hoop for a dunk. Do that more often instead of settling for jumpers, stay out of foul trouble and it will be hard to keep him off the floor.

In the end, I thought they were all relying too much on Wade to run the show but it's hard for anyone else to get involved if Wade is chucking 3's from the cheap seats on pick and roll action at the top. That's really playing in to the hands of the defense.
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bobinator
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In reply to GrayMatter • 10:27a, 11/5/24
AG
Quote:
In the end, I thought they were all relying too much on Wade to run the show but it's hard for anyone else to get involved if Wade is chucking 3's from the cheap seats on pick and roll action at the top. That's really playing in to the hands of the defense.
I mean Wade's going to take some bad shots. He just is. But I thought he did a great job last night passing the ball. He had seven assists and could have easily had a couple more if players could put the ball in the basket. Not sure how much else he can do to get other players involved.

With Payne out and nobody else playing well he tried to do too much at the end of the game, but I don't mind that. I'd rather have our best player try to make a play. Down one late he makes a great pass to Carter for what should be an easy layup and Carter, who actually had a decent game overall, whiffs it.

We also tried to move Wade off the ball and two things happened, Manny was an absolute disaster at point, and they were letting UCF grab and hold Taylor which meant he couldn't get open. We had one turnover because the defense was grabbing Taylor and Hefner tried to throw it in to him anyway and it went out of bounds.

This isn't really excusing Wade's play late, but he is who he is, if you want something else to happen then someone else has to make something happen. If everyone else is playing like crap then Wade is going to try and do it himself.
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MarcAg
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In reply to GrayMatter • 10:31a, 11/5/24
AG
GrayMatter said:
MarcAg said:
Wade
Phelps
Solo
Garcia
Payne

Pretty excited about that group when Phelps gets healthy.
Until I see Phelps on the court, I don't like this group. I don't see how the offense scores without having Wade and/or Phelps penetrating. Plus, there aren't any shooters to space the floor. In my opinion, you need a WTF player like Heff or Wilcher or Jace playing in the lineup that can at least hit a 3 every so often to keep the defense honest.


Who are you putting out there? I would argue that's one of the best offensive lineups we can put out there.
I expect Wade, Phelps and Payne to be the three leading scorers. And I would be shocked if Solo is #4 this year.

Phelps and Wade are the players that can hit a three every so often.

I'd bring Wilcher in as the shooter off the bench
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bobinator
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In reply to MarcAg • 10:37a, 11/5/24
AG
Yeah, after that five and probably Coleman you're just flexing everyone else based on the game flow and if someone is on that particular night.

Manny has to prove he can sustain a high level of play, how he was going to start this season was one of my biggest concerns coming in because we've seen him put together decent stretches before that didn't carry over into the next season.

I think Carter is a guy that gets better when Phelps is on the floor. He can be a good 3 if you have a solid 1 and 2 out there. He's a bad 2 if you don't.
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JJxvi
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10:44a, 11/5/24
AG
I dont care at all about losing this one game, really. What annoys me is throwing a double digit lead in the trash as the cherry on top of about a week or so where every sporting event I have paid attention to has been a total **** show.

That said, it is disappointing because we should have won and a win would have been a great outcome.
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TjgtAg08
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In reply to bobinator • 10:46a, 11/5/24
AG
bobinator said:
This was always a losable game though, especially without Pehlps, it's not in that same tier of some of our truly bad losses. We were favored, but this in a group of games that I'd call "favored, but losable" with Ohio State, Oregon and maybe SDSU.

I'd put our non-con as:

Slight underdogs, but can win: Creighton, Tech, Purdue (want to win two, winning one is acceptable)
Favored, but losable: UCF, Ohio State, Oregon, SDSU, Wake (want to win four, winning three is acceptable)
Disaster losses: Everyone else

"Want" would mean this team has a chance to be elite, "acceptable" meaning we're about on track with what most of us expected.

Wake is probably just barely a "favored, but losable" game and would probably be closer to a disaster loss, but they're so much better than the other disaster losses that it seems weird to put them there.
Not to derail this thread, but we won't play SDSU, right? They are in the same side of the bracket as we are in that Players Era tournament, and I think game 3 is against a team from the other side?

Kinda confusing as to how that third game is going to be seeded, but we could easily end up getting a game against Houston or Alabama ... would be weird if it was against Bama, maybe they would manipulate it so we don't play eachother?

Would honestly prefer not to play Houston/Bama ... a "solid but winnable" matchup in that third game would be nice.
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bobinator
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In reply to TjgtAg08 • 11:11a, 11/5/24
AG
Yeah you're right, I was looking at the schedule on KenPom and it's not changed on there yet.

I don't want to play Alabama because I think they're a nightmare matchup for us, but I'm fine with playing Houston.
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phatty26
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In reply to Great2BeAnAGGIE • 12:41p, 11/5/24
Great2BeAnAGGIE said:
What is frustrating to me is the same issues that have plagued our team are still there.
Bad ball handling, turnovers due to no true point guard.
Open 3's for opponents
Bad free throws
Long non scoring streaks

Nothing in these areas have improved the entire time Buzz has been here.


Don't forget hacking and study fouls.
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bg92
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1:03p, 11/5/24
AG
I'm also most worried about what we have seen from Manny. Really hoped that he turned the corner with the way he ended the season last year. I think we all expect big minutes form Taylor and Phelps. That puts a lot of competition from Manny, Carter, Hefner, Dockery, and Wilcher for the 3rd guard spot and backup minutes. I'm not convinced Manny has the mental makeup to be effective in limited backup minutes and I'm not sure he is consistent enough to win over Buzz for automatic big minutes as the 3rd guard. Really frustrating given just how good he has been at times.
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MarcAg
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In reply to bg92 • 1:10p, 11/5/24
AG
bg92 said:
I'm also most worried about what we have seen from Manny. Really hoped that he turned the corner with the way he ended the season last year. I think we all expect big minutes form Taylor and Phelps. That puts a lot of competition from Manny, Carter, Hefner, Dockery, and Wilcher for the 3rd guard spot and backup minutes. I'm not convinced Manny has the mental makeup to be effective in limited backup minutes and I'm not sure he is consistent enough to win over Buzz for automatic big minutes as the 3rd guard. Really frustrating given just how good he has been at times.


We have seen Manny play 94 games. 90% of those games look similar. 10% he looked really good. I think a lot of people wanted to think he was now that 10% player we saw. Buzz was asked about if we should expect that Manny and he said No. He said the hope was we would see a player between what we previously saw and that stretch late last year. I thought that quote before the season spoke volumes and made me think they haven't been seeing that 10% Manny in the offseason. I could be reading WAY too much into that though.
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bobinator
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In reply to MarcAg • 1:20p, 11/5/24
AG
Yeah I think anyone expecting him to just play at that level for a whole season was hoping for too much.

Personally I was just hoping that his floor had been raised. I didn't expect him to ball out of control all year, but thought maybe he could at least just be okay most of the time but last night wasn't a great sign even for that.

The problem with Manny is that when he's bad, he absolutely kills us.

I want to see more of Wilcher these next few games or we're basically back to where we were last year with Carter having to play like 30 minutes because at least he's not out there actively hurting us most of the time.
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bg92
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1:25p, 11/5/24
AG
I also hoped for something in between terrible Manny and awesome Manny. At this point I just don't think we will see it. I expect his minutes to get eaten by someone that can provide a more consistent presence, even if it is at a lower ceiling than awesome Manny. But hey, it is early season, so maybe he will surprise me.
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MarcAg
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In reply to bobinator • 1:51p, 11/5/24
AG
bobinator said:
Yeah I think anyone expecting him to just play at that level for a whole season was hoping for too much.

Personally I was just hoping that his floor had been raised. I didn't expect him to ball out of control all year, but thought maybe he could at least just be okay most of the time but last night wasn't a great sign even for that.

The problem with Manny is that when he's bad, he absolutely kills us.

.


It's 100% mental with Manny. He's way overthinking on the court instead of just playing ball.
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greg.w.h
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In reply to MarcAg • 1:54p, 11/5/24
AG
MarcAg said:
bobinator said:
Yeah I think anyone expecting him to just play at that level for a whole season was hoping for too much.

Personally I was just hoping that his floor had been raised. I didn't expect him to ball out of control all year, but thought maybe he could at least just be okay most of the time but last night wasn't a great sign even for that.

The problem with Manny is that when he's bad, he absolutely kills us.

.


It's 100% mental with Manny. He's way overthinking on the court instead of just playing ball.
Crapping on players isn't coaching. Online mental health diagnoses are also unethical, counselor.
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CapCityAg89
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2:25p, 11/5/24
AG
My concern from last night is that pretty much the entire game the three best defenders were wearing white. I can't remember that ever for a Buzz team and maybe not even a team since BCG year 1. Aggies play defense.

Heck, the earlier poster commented on "overly aggressive defense". That was the opposite of the problem which was overly passive defense - weak reaches and swipes as a dude ran by us.

We will lose a crap ton of games if that continues. My take on Hefner specifically last night was that he was one of the few staying ahead of his man. When everyone else is reaching as badly as we were, to pick on him seems asinine.
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AggieViking15
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In reply to MarcAg • 2:36p, 11/5/24
AG
That is interesting, i missed that quote from Buzz. Sad to hear, but if that is the case we need Phelps to be legit & healthy. Otherwise we are going to be stuck with only one real point guard / ball handler.

As far as the lineup you posted, i think it will win us games but we will not have a pretty offense. No spacing in that lineup.
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bobinator
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In reply to AggieViking15 • 2:42p, 11/5/24
AG
There's plenty of spacing if we use Payne and Garcia correctly.
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MarcAg
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In reply to AggieViking15 • 3:17p, 11/5/24
AG
AggieViking15 said:
That is interesting, i missed that quote from Buzz. Sad to hear, but if that is the case we need Phelps to be legit & healthy. Otherwise we are going to be stuck with only one real point guard / ball handler.

As far as the lineup you posted, i think it will win us games but we will not have a pretty offense. No spacing in that lineup.
It could have been coach speak and not wanting to put too much pressure on Manny. Who knows
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Heineken-Ashi
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3:46p, 11/5/24
You guys were sure last year that Manny was trash and would transfer.

Who knows how long it will take him to settle in. But the one thing he has going is age, maturity, and experience. I'd be willing to guess his game clicks A LOT earlier than last year.
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MarcAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 3:55p, 11/5/24
AG
Heineken-Ashi said:
You guys were sure last year that Manny was trash and would transfer.

Who knows how long it will take him to settle in. But the one thing he has going is age, maturity, and experience. I'd be willing to guess his game clicks A LOT earlier than last year.
I think most of us expect him to be up and down as he has been for his career. He is going to have some big games, but he is going to have a lot of games like last night too. I think it is who he is
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Method Man
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9:27p, 11/5/24
We needed to get a backup PG and dump some of the dead weight. Why isn't Mills playing?
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MarcAg
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In reply to Method Man • 9:31p, 11/5/24
AG
Method Man said:
We needed to get a backup PG and dump some of the dead weight. Why isn't Mills playing?


I hope Mills gets some run at some point. We need offense, he has offense. Also you don't play a kid for a year then you are at risk of losing him. I expect we won't see him much at all this year and that will be a disappointment
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LB12Diamond
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In reply to Proposition Joe • 11:47p, 11/5/24
AG
Proposition Joe said:
Hefner played 14 minutes, went 0-3 from the field, committed 2 turnovers, committed 2 fouls, got 2 rebounds and 1 assist.

In no world is that neutral.


You did not use the Hefner scale.
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