akm91 said:
UF also had 2 bigs that can score inside so we collapsed down on them. I'm not sure NU has the same level of scoring threat down low that requires the same level of defensive collapse.
I think I'd argue it's more likely to come down to what percentage we shoot on threes. Nebraska is probably going to shoot between 30% and 45% on threes, and anywhere close to that range is fine as long as we're getting the rebounds. Nebraska is actually only 3-2 when they shoot better than that because Maryland and Wisconsin kept them off the offensive glass and didn't foul them.Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:
it seems this game will come down to one key metric. what percentage does nebraska shoot on 3's.
Both teams' season stats are a little misleading here because like us, they've had some injury issues with guys in and out of the lineup. Of their 33 games only two players have played in all of them.Quote:
Nebraska goes much deeper on their bench with 8 players averaging more than 15 minutes and none above 30 minutes.
AggieDub04 said:
Agree with this. In their 6 games vs ranked opponents they went 2-4. They were out rebounded in every one of those games. The two games they won were vs Purdue where they shot 60% from three (insane) and Wisconsin where they show 33% but also had a 26-12 free throw advantage so they'll look for an advantage on one of those two fronts. The only one of the ranked games where they did not have a free throw advantage was vs Illinois.
If you look at their season stats Nebraska breaks even on fouls, turnovers, and rebounds. They win by shooting a higher % than their opponents. A&M wins by forcing turnovers and dominating the boards creating extra possessions.
A few areas of comparative advantage for each team.
Rebounds - A&M is the top rebounding and offensive rebounding team in the country while Nebraska ranks as one of the worst rebounding teams by opponent rebounding. Nebraska essentially breaks even on the season while A&M has a plus 10 rebound advantage on average.
Shooting - Nebraska is better in all aspects here from a % standpoint shooting 45% to A&M's 40% and 36% from three to A&Ms 28%. A&M has shot better of late but I don't think you can hope for any advantage here.
Turnovers - a bit of a sneaky category here, Nebraska breaks even on turnovers while A&M forces almost 2 more per game than they commit. This could be an area to turn the game as turnovers and offensive rebounds provide the extra possessions A&M would need to win.
Fouls - both teams are average in terms of how much they foul but A&M forces their opponent to foul more while Nebraska breaks even in terms of fouls vs opponent fouls. This could be another area of advantage if A&M's attacking offense can force some of Nebraska's players into foul trouble, especially their primary big Rienk Mast.
Nebraska goes much deeper on their bench with 8 players averaging more than 15 minutes and none above 30 minutes. A&M has 2 players averaging 30 minutes and only 6 averaging 15 minutes. A&M won't be able to shorten their bench but they probably won't need to as players are used to playing those long minutes already. Nebraska will probably ask Mast to play more minutes this game to try to offset the rebounding advantage similar to what they did against Wisconsin running him for 38 minutes.
bobinator said:
Not trying to be rude, but like... yeah, obviously right?
Putting those stats together you're basically just saying we need to match their points on threes and free throws and then be at least +8 on the boards.
nice breakdown.AggieDub04 said:
Agree with this. In their 6 games vs ranked opponents they went 2-4. They were out rebounded in every one of those games. The two games they won were vs Purdue where they shot 60% from three (insane) and Wisconsin where they show 33% but also had a 26-12 free throw advantage so they'll look for an advantage on one of those two fronts. The only one of the ranked games where they did not have a free throw advantage was vs Illinois.
If you look at their season stats Nebraska breaks even on fouls, turnovers, and rebounds. They win by shooting a higher % than their opponents. A&M wins by forcing turnovers and dominating the boards creating extra possessions.
A few areas of comparative advantage for each team.
Rebounds - A&M is the top rebounding and offensive rebounding team in the country while Nebraska ranks as one of the worst rebounding teams by opponent rebounding. Nebraska essentially breaks even on the season while A&M has a plus 10 rebound advantage on average.
Shooting - Nebraska is better in all aspects here from a % standpoint shooting 45% to A&M's 40% and 36% from three to A&Ms 28%. A&M has shot better of late but I don't think you can hope for any advantage here.
Turnovers - a bit of a sneaky category here, Nebraska breaks even on turnovers while A&M forces almost 2 more per game than they commit. This could be an area to turn the game as turnovers and offensive rebounds provide the extra possessions A&M would need to win.
Fouls - both teams are average in terms of how much they foul but A&M forces their opponent to foul more while Nebraska breaks even in terms of fouls vs opponent fouls. This could be another area of advantage if A&M's attacking offense can force some of Nebraska's players into foul trouble, especially their primary big Rienk Mast.
Nebraska goes much deeper on their bench with 8 players averaging more than 15 minutes and none above 30 minutes. A&M has 2 players averaging 30 minutes and only 6 averaging 15 minutes. A&M won't be able to shorten their bench but they probably won't need to as players are used to playing those long minutes already. Nebraska will probably ask Mast to play more minutes this game to try to offset the rebounding advantage similar to what they did against Wisconsin running him for 38 minutes.
Method Man said:akm91 said:
UF also had 2 bigs that can score inside so we collapsed down on them. I'm not sure NU has the same level of scoring threat down low that requires the same level of defensive collapse.
But we will collapse
TjgtAg08 said:Method Man said:akm91 said:
UF also had 2 bigs that can score inside so we collapsed down on them. I'm not sure NU has the same level of scoring threat down low that requires the same level of defensive collapse.
But we will collapse
Nebraska runs a 5-out offense, there is no post presence to collapse on.
I agree.halfastros81 said:
True that you don't know how the game will be called but we are going to attack the rim and for the most part they won't. I think that predisposes that they will likely foul more than we will. I think that will be a key element for us. We need to get and make a lot of free throws . We also need to win the boards pretty handily imo.
Maybe, but in a 5-out situation its a lot more difficult to truly double penetration because the secondary defender has to come from the wing as well. Honestly, I bet it doesn't happen that much unless its penetration with the big guy from like the elbow or something.fightintxag13 said:TjgtAg08 said:Method Man said:akm91 said:
UF also had 2 bigs that can score inside so we collapsed down on them. I'm not sure NU has the same level of scoring threat down low that requires the same level of defensive collapse.
But we will collapse
Nebraska runs a 5-out offense, there is no post presence to collapse on.
Dribble penetration. They will try to drive some, and we will inevitably bring a double team. The off ball defenders will have to keep their eyes outside because Nebraska will be setting picks and keep the shooters moving on the outside to get open for the kick out.
I would agree, at least that will probably be the plan. BUT, maybe Wildens can guard their big guy out on the perimeter ... I don't think he is a big threat to drive from the 3pt line, but if Wildens gets caught in the air, its a guaranteed 3 foul shots, maybe even a 4pt play.Know Your Enemy said:
So it will be wise to play Wildens even less than usual. Hopefully Coleman can play some quality minutes spelling Solo and Andy. And I pray to the basketball gods we stay out of foul trouble.
I'll agree solely based on # of lunch pails pictured on rostercoloradoag69 said:
One thing I haven't seen mentioned is the relative athleticism of the two teams. I believe, without proof, that we are more athletic than they are. I believe the SEC players in general are more athletic than those in the Big 10.
snowdog90 said:
One other thing...
I have a feeling that Jace Carter may turn a corner Friday. He has incredible shooting form and has proven in the past that he can score. I think maybe he was feeling some pressure, as was the whole team, trying to just make the tournament.
I think he and others may feel a little more free, relaxed and nothing-to-lose now that they're in. I think Jace shoots well Friday - I hope I'm right.
This place will EXPLODE when he goes for 20 & 10bobinator said:
Sounds like yall are calling a Hefner breakout game
Know Your Enemy said:snowdog90 said:
One other thing...
I have a feeling that Jace Carter may turn a corner Friday. He has incredible shooting form and has proven in the past that he can score. I think maybe he was feeling some pressure, as was the whole team, trying to just make the tournament.
I think he and others may feel a little more free, relaxed and nothing-to-lose now that they're in. I think Jace shoots well Friday - I hope I'm right.
Incredible shooting form? If so it's impressive how few shots he actually makes.
