Except he was updating his bracket every day, or every couple of days.

Several people on here predicted this bump coming though. The online bracketologists live too much in the day-to-day. Once the regular season was over and they stepped back and thought big picture for a bit it was obvious that our resume stacked up better against the bubble teams than they thought it did, and we're seeing that happen across the bracket matrix.

I'm not completely convinced that we're not still being underrated. Again, unless this committee just zigs where the others have zagged, they have emphasized rewarding non-conference scheduling time and time again.

Over the last four years, here are teams with a NET between 25 and 55 (just to get the elite teams out of the way) and a non-con NET SOS ranked around 30:

2023:
North Carolina (20-13) - didn't make the field, but was 1-9 in Quad 1 games
Oral Roberts (26-4) - won the summit league autobid, but wouldn't have gotten in because their league is bad, their overall SOS was 202 despite a non-con SOS of 6
2022:
Alabama (19-13) - 6 seed - NET: 30, had two quad 3 losses, Non-con SOS of 7
Michigan State (22-12) - 7 seed - NET: 36, non-con SOS 25
Notre Dame (22-10) - 11 seed - NET: 53, Non-con SOS: 26 (famously got in over us)
(no real point looking at '21 because the data was so screwed up, and there was no tournament in '20)
2019:
Villanova (25-9) - 6 seed - NET: 26, non-con SOS: 32
Maryland (22-10) - 6 seed - NET: 27; non-con SOS: 17
Utah State (28-6) - 8 seed - NET: 29; non-con SOS: 25
VCU (25-7) - 8 seed - NET: 34, NCSOS: 2
St. Mary's (22-11) - won the WCC tournament but would have made it - 11 seed - NET: 32, SOS: 37
Oklahoma (19-13) - 9 seed - NET: 37, NCSOS: 49
Texas (16-16) - Did not make it - Net: 38, NCSOS: 18
Syracuse (20-13) - 8 seed- NET: 42, NCSOS: 17
Washington (26-8) - 9 seed- NET: 45, NCSOS: 13
Creighton (18-14) - did not make it - NET: 53, NCSOS 28 - were 3-10 in Quad 1 games and only had 1 top 30 win

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

---

We just need to beat Ol Miss.

Again.

Everything that the Aggies do after that is for seeding or avoiding Dayton in my opinion.

---

We could beat OM and UK and still end up in Dayton. The 114 different brackets on BracketMatrix have been updated. Only 36 of them have us in. We are consensus 3rd Team Out (behind Nova and UNM).

Other teams are playing their tournaments too. Just beating OM isn't going to move us up much if teams like UVA, CU, St John's, Richmond, USF, Nova, and UNM all win a game in their tournaments. Maybe we jump Indy State. Maybe not.

Beating UK is much more of a needle mover. That said, the aforementioned teams above may win their own needle movers.

If Dayton and USF don't win their tourneys, it gets REALLY dicey for us. If a team currently below us wins a P5 tourney or the Big East tourney, it gets even dicier.

Adam87inSA said:

---

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

---

We just need to beat Ol Miss.

Again.

Everything that the Aggies do after that is for seeding or avoiding Dayton in my opinion.

---

We could beat OM and UK and still end up in Dayton. The 114 different brackets on BracketMatrix have been updated. Only 36 of them have us in. We are consensus 3rd Team Out (behind Nova and UNM).

Other teams are playing their tournaments too. Just beating OM isn't going to move us up much if teams like UVA, CU, St John's, Richmond, USF, Nova, and UNM all win a game in their tournaments. Maybe we jump Indy State. Maybe not.

Beating UK is much more of a needle mover. That said, the aforementioned teams above may win their own needle movers.

If Dayton and USF don't win their tourneys, it gets REALLY dicey for us. If a team currently below us wins a P5 tourney or the Big East tourney, it gets even dicier.

---

Actually, USF is not getting an at large bid. Better for us and other Bubble Teams for FAU win the AAC Tournament to get the autobid - as that opens up another slot for us and others.

Ol Miss win this Thursday would get us in the NCAAT.

Kentucky win by the Aggies Friday definitely gets us out of Dayton and perhaps up to a 10 seed due to the high profile and reputation of Kentucky - as many analysts are considering the Wildcats a Final Four and even National Champion favorite even though they are obviously not a 1 seed.

Richmond and USF are not getting an at-large bid. We need to root for Dayton and FAU in those leagues.

And it was slow to update bc just one of those 6 games go in a different direction it changes everything.

Just go win at least 2. If you can't stay home

How many teams with 4 quad 3 losses got an automatic bed.
Asking for a million friends.

Personally I have no problem with the auto bids. Also, 1 bid conferences play more quad 3 teams.

aggiebones said:

---

How many teams with 4 quad 3 losses got an automatic bed.
Asking for a million friends.

---

This resume got in last year. I'd argue it's considerably worse than ours this year.




And here is the 10 seed we all grew to hate in round 1.

texag84 said:

---

Just go win at least 2. If you can't stay home

---

"Just go win at least 2" means just beating the team playing the best ball in the SEC in Kentucky. Tall order. Not impossible though.

Not a big deal, but I found it interesting that Lunardi only has 5 Big East teams in his field, but in the conference breakdown, they have 6 for that league

Edit: I see what happened.They have the conference totals transposed for the Big East and the Big 10, who should have six teams instead of five

bobinator said:

---

If someone will go find a quote from someone saying that the conference tournaments don't matter then we'll stop telling people to stop saying that.

It just isn't true.

What IS true is that we've learned you at least need to be in the discussion when the committee starts their conversations. In 2022 we weren't. We were 3-8 in Quad 1 games with two quad 3 losses, a terrible (#262) non-con SOS, and our only two halfway good wins the whole season were Arkansas at home and Alabama on the road, ranked 20 and 30 in the NET.

That year, two of our SEC Tournament wins were our best two wins of the year.

That is not the case this year. We have 5 quad one wins and 6 more Quad 2 wins, we do have three quad 3 losses which is the only reason we're back here at all, but our non-con SOS is 21, the best of any team under consideration, and it's the best by a long way over everyone except Utah and we've already beaten teams ranked 5, 9, and 19 in the NET.

It's a completely different situation. We don't need a miracle this week. We just need to beat Ole Miss and we're probably good to go.

---

Lunardi is the first and worst at what he does.