Game 1 trends, buying or not?

1,953 Views | 22 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by PJYoung
bobinator
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Can't really call one game a trend, but first games are for overreacting, so what did we see Monday that we actually believe in versus we think it was a one game anomaly or something we'll only see against bad teams? I thought up a few to get the ball rolling but what else do y'all have?

1) Hefner is going to be a scoring threat and play a big chunk of minutes: We're not talking 15 points and 30 minutes a night here, but maybe 6-8 ppg and 15-18 mins? Anyone buying that? Last year he only had 110 points total, his averages were 3.4 points in 11 minutes.
Do I buy it? I'm gonna go a bit out on a limb here and actually say yes. Call it a vibe from the game but Hefner just looked like a guy that actually knows what he's doing and what he wants to do. I'm upgrading him from "honestly can't believe he's still on the roster" to "decent contributing piece"

2) We're going to shoot a ton of threes: Last year we did not shoot that many threes, but did shoot a ton in our first game like we did Monday
Do I buy it? Yes, but only if Marble doesn't return. Not quite to the level we saw Monday, but I bet we shoot a lot more threes as a percentage of our total shots than we did last year.

3) We're going to be good at shooting threes: Monday's 39.3% would make us an elite three point shooting team, something we haven't even been close to being in the Buzz era. Our best three point year under Buzz was two years ago when we finished #239 in the country. We've only even finished in the top 100 in three point shooting twice in the last 15 years (2009, #79, 2013, #84)
Do I buy it? No. Being bad at shooting is a sacred and time-honored tradition so I won't believe this one unless we're like halfway through the season.
taylorswift13_
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More posters appear who have a source or know a friend of a friend who knows the Marble situation…

Buy
greg.w.h
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1. Hef offseason changed body. But Commerce is less athletic than our conference will be. Promising first game. More to prove.

2./3. The threes were mostly gifts by defensive game plan and we definitely shot clunkers from time to time. Did that make the percentage surprising or is there another dynamic like real time stats a being used to adjust play calls and shots?? That sounds like something Buzz might try…and we could shoot more and regulate more if not offensively productive or if we can't use 3s to pull the defense out.
bobinator
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We need someone to just fall on the sword and start circulating crazy rumors that they'll have to shoot down. Not me, obviously, but sounds like a good job for greg.w.h.
Know Your Enemy
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I can't believe our beloved Ben with all his coaching contacts can't get us the true scoop.
greg.w.h
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bobinator said:

We need someone to just fall on the sword and start circulating crazy rumors that they'll have to shoot down. Not me, obviously, but sounds like a good job for greg.w.h.
If we need someone to make up rumors anyone here will do just fine. I have no particular skills at doing that.
Complete Idiot
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Definitely an overreaction to game one, but I dig the excitement, the attendance, the ranking. I look forward to thoroughly enjoying this season, with some ups and downs but fewer downs than the past 2 years.

I'd be happy with a less successful conference run if we could get to second weekend in tourney. I was someone last year who wasn't too upset with the first round loss, just chalked it up to bad matchup and thats how the tourney goes. I wasn't too upset because that conference run was pure joy, what a ride.

I don't think we will be quite as good as some hope, as far as final ranking, but I think it's going to be a strong year and one of the best for Aggie basketball.
Method Man
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Until proven otherwise, Hefner was dominating scrubs and his lack of quickness will be a detriment on defense and his three point shot (airball against Tech) remains sporadic.
GrayMatter
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I'll buy the Hef argument; he's a senior so I'm guessing he's gonna go all out every time he's on the floor.

The buckets might not go in, but he's going to give max effort.
The Marksman
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Don't know that I buy any game 1 trends, but time will tell
Ag_EE_88
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Hefner has looked good in the past against lesser competition too. We'll see how he looks over the next few games. I think he's still gonna have a few turnovers a game, though. He just doesn't have very good handles. Hope he continues to play well.
StinkyPinky
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GrayMatter said:

I'll buy the Hef argument; he's a senior so I'm guessing he's gonna go all out every time he's on the floor.

The buckets might not go in, but he's going to give max effort.


This is what I'm banking on. He's had a lot of time with program so maybe coming into his own and living up to the original potential.
CapCityAg89
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3s come down to H and the newbies. Carter and Livingston shot a bunch. If Hefner can shoot 35% on 15 minutes I think one of the others can get at least warm. Buzz has never played run and chunk so he should be able to control the pace we shoot them.

4 is going to be 40%+ I think. Dude is bigger, stronger and motivated. Could be the dreds though.
bobinator
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If Taylor shoots over 40% from 3 he'll be in the mix for national player of the year.
Michael Cera Palin
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I agree about Hefner. Need to see him do it against higher quality competition but he looked like he had a new level of confidence and belonged out there. Last year I thought he held his own on defense, I hope he can start consistently hitting shots on offense to keep the other team honest while defending
bobinator
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The Marksman said:

Don't know that I buy any game 1 trends, but time will tell
THAT IS NOT HOW THIS GAME IS PLAYED
rlb28
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nm
The Marksman
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Livingston?
CapCityAg89
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The Marksman said:

Livingston?

Lawrence.
CapCityAg89
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bobinator said:

If Taylor shoots over 40% from 3 he'll be in the mix for national player of the year.

Yep
bdp514am
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after game #2 are you still buying #1?
bobinator
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He played 27 minutes and had 4 points, so sure. He's not gonna score every game obviously.
PJYoung
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