Post will be live on GBH on Sunday morning - i recognize the images wont work here. They should work on GBH and i will work on getting them to be pasted in here too.

Final Update! Selection Sunday Morning!


Wow this team is fun to watch! Aggies continue to roll and, in my estimation, have played their way into a 5 seed. With only a handful of championships scheduled for Sunday and being hours away from the official bracket reveal, the bracket is essentially set regardless of the outcomes of today's games.

There weren't very many other updates from Saturday. A dozen or so of the automatic bids were handed out which adjusted the 13-16 seed lines slightly. Kansas lost and slipped to the #2 overall seed. UCLA lost and confirmed Purdue as the 4th 1 seed. And then all the potential bid stealers lost, which means everyone around the bubble was breathing a little easier by Saturday night.

The only bubble team that was still in action on Saturday was Vanderbilt, coming into the day not into the field and then being completely noncompetitive means there was no movement of teams in and out of the field. I feel very confident about the first 66 teams into the field, the real bubble that is a difficult decision is 5 teams for 2 spots Oklahoma State, Arizona State, Nevada, Pitt, and Wisconsin. For a full numerical breakdown of the bubble and some insight into the process I use to evaluate teams, check out the below statistical analysis. Each of these numbers (in addition to things like road record, non-conference record, etc.) is what is on the selection committee "team sheets" that are used for selection and seeding. This isn't just a numbers game, when the numbers are close it just means there is a conversation which is what I think will happen with essentially 5 teams for 2 spots on the cut line.

Here is how I evaluate the 12 teams on the bubble, in order.




So, I'll take Oklahoma State and Arizona State with the final 2 spots. No, I don't feel great about it at all and was hoping for a stolen bid or 2 to take these spots off the table. Arizona States non-conference and the win over Creighton is ultimately what put them over the top for me.

For seeding and where A&M is compared to other teams near them here is that same look. These numbers were BEFORE the Vanderbilt game. But the seeding is essentially done as of Saturday night. These are old school guys (and gals) using printouts in their binder in front of them. They aren't checking their phone for how high we went in KenPom as a result of the blowout. They are likely using these numbers and then will at best make the tweaks to the seeding using the knowledge of Saturday.





Key insights: very close numbers standpoint from Indiana through Creighton. A&M appears to be top 20 in essentially every metric (that's a key number for a 5 seed), even before the win against Vanderbilt. I gave Iowa State a boost because their key wins and who have you beat stat is better than anyone outside of the 1 seeds. Miami should clearly be a 6. Not only is that what the computers say, they are the only team in this range without a quad 1A win. It would be completely undeserved for them to get a 5. A&M and Duke are attached at the hip, but the lack of quad 1 wins is a separator for me to have A&M slightly in front. Duke (and A&M) should be ahead of Virginia after the ACC championship do I have any faith in that happening? No.

So here is my seed list as of Sunday morning. I do not foresee any major changes to this based on Sunday's action. (5 games, small tweaks noted based on who auto bid for Ivy and A10, no seeding impact for SEC, AAC or Big 10 although there could be a contingent bracket where Penn State and Utah State flip if PSU loses).

1 seeds

1. Alabama
2. Kansas
3. Houston
4. Purdue

2 seeds

5. UCLA
6. Texas
7. Arizona
8. Gonzaga

3 seeds

9. Marquette
10. Baylor
11. UConn
12. Kansas State


4 seeds

13. Xavier
14. Tennessee
15. Indiana
16. Virginia

5 seeds

17. Iowa State
18. San Diego State
19. Duke
20. Texas A&M

6 Seeds

21. Miami
22. St. Mary's
23. TCU
24. Kentucky

7 Seed

25. Creighton
26. Missouri
27. Michigan State
28. Florida Atlantic

8 Seed
29. Northwestern
30. Maryland
31. West Virginia
32. Memphis


9 seeds

33. Arkansas
34. Boise State
35. Auburn
36. Penn State


10 Seeds

37. Utah State
38. Illinois
39. Iowa
40. USC

11 seeds

41. NC State
42. Rutgers
43. *Providence
44. *Mississippi State
45. *Oklahoma State
46. *Arizona State

*Play In game Participants


12 Seeds
[ol]

Summit League Oral Roberts

CAA Charleston

MVC Drake

A10 Dayton vs. VCU Projecting VCU to win. If Dayton wins they are a 13 seed and move Kent State up to a 12.

[/ol]
13 Seeds
[ol]

MAC - Kent State

MAAC Iona

Ivy Yale vs. Princeton Projecting Yale to win. If Princeton wins they are a 14 and move Furman up to a 13.

Sun Belt Louisiana

[/ol]
14 Seeds
[ol]

Southern Furman

Big West UCSB

Atlantic Sun Kennesaw State

Big Sky Montana State

[/ol]
15 Seeds
[ol]

Patriot Colgate

WAC Grand Canyon

America East Vermont

Big South UNC Asheville

[/ol]
16 Seeds
[ol]

Horizon - Northern Kentucky

Southland Texas A&M Corpus Christi

%MEAC Howard

%Ohio Valley Southeastern Missouri

%Northeast Fairleigh Dickinson

%SWAC Texas Southern

[/ol]The Projected Bracket

South
Birmingham
1 Alabama
16 Northern Kentucky

8 Northwestern
9 Boise State

Greensboro
4 Xavier
13 Louisiana

5 Iowa State
12 Oral Roberts


Des Moines
3 Kansas State
14 Furman

6 St. Mary's
11 NC State


Denver
2 Arizona
15 UNC Asheville

7 Creighton
10 Iowa


East
Columbus
1 Purdue
16 Southeastern Missouri/ Fairleigh Dickinson

8 Memphis
9 Arkansas

Greensboro
4 Tennessee
13 Iona

5 San Diego State
12 Charleston

Albany
3 UConn
14 Kennesaw State

6 Kentucky
11 Oklahoma State / Arizona State


Denver
2 Texas
15 Colgate

7 Michigan State
10 USC


West
Birmingham
1 Houston
16 Texas A&M Corpus Christi

8 West Virginia
9 Penn State


Albany
4 Virginia
13 Yale

5 Texas A&M
12 Drake


Orlando
3 Baylor
14 UCSB

6 Miami
11 Providence/ Mississippi State


Sacramento
2 UCLA
15 Grand Canyon

7 Florida Atlantic
10 Utah State


Midwest
Des Moines
1 Kansas
16 Texas Southern / Howard

8 Maryland
9 Auburn

Orlando
4 Indiana
13 Kent State

5 Duke
12 VCU

Columbus
3 Marquette
14 Montana State

6 TCU
11 Rutgers

Sacramento
2 Gonzaga
15 Vermont

7 Missouri
10 Illinois

*Note: 2 slight unresolved issues (Maryland/Indiana and Oklahoma State/Texas are a bit too close and due to the number of teams in from each conference the issues were not easily resolved without un naturally moving a team to a different line which I chose not to do for this projection)

PREVIOUS EDITIONS:

• Jan. 19 Bubble Watch (#73)
• Jan. 29 Bubble Watch (#67)
• Feb. 5 Bubble Watch (#69)
• Feb. 12 Bubble Watch (#64)
• Feb. 16 Bubble Watch (#56 9 seed)
• Feb. 19 Bubble Watch (#51 8 seed)
• Feb. 23 Bubble Watch (#46 7 seed)
• Feb. 26 Bubble Watch #48 7 seed
• Mar. 1 Bubble Watch #48 7 seed
• Mar. 4 Bubble Watch #47 7 seed
• Mar. 6 Bubble Watch #42 6 seed
• Mar. 9 Bubble Watch #44 6 seed
• Mar. 11 Bubble Watch #41 5 Seed

Lots of hour and excellent analysis Based on last year it seems likely the brackets are almost fully filled out Saturday night,
It really does not matter being a 4 compared to a 5 but if we beat Bama would the committee just make the simple change of switching the Ags and the Vols

I'd flip Rutgers and Providence but that's the only semi significant thing I think I disagree with. Good work as always.

No. I believe we are a 5 regardless of todays results.

I actually had them flipped all week in the lead up to this and it was one of the small tweaks I made to intentionally slide providence back 1 spot. We will see…

I'm curious…. Do you agree with the 68 selected and teams out being Nevada, wisc, and Pitt? Seems most brackets still have Pitt in and many with a bye. I think that's the big miss most folks end up having.

Admittedly I love our bracket path with the worst 12 and the worst 4. And no that was not intentional I didn't even look at what our path would be until the very end. I am sure I will like the final draw a whole lot less but fingers crossed this is pretty close.

Looks like the majority of bracketologists on BracketMatrix have us as a six.

Do you feel pretty good about a 5 seed or do you think it's a coin flip between a 5 and 6?

Last time I looked, we're in Purdue's bracket. Yikes !!!

I feel decent about a 5. I would be ok with duke being ahead of us on the seed line which pushes us to the last 5. I absolutely think we should be ahead of Miami whom most brackets still have as a 5 and I have moved to a 6.

The other worries are tcu and st Mary's getting a 5. I am reasonably confident they will be a 6. Not worried about creighton or Kentucky.

I'd put the chances of a 5 at like 73% with a 6 as 20%. Maybe a 2% chance of a 4 if we win today and the selection committee wakes up to all the grief they have caught about Sunday games not mattering.

I dunno I think you're as likely to be right as they are. If the committee cares about metrics and big wins then Pitt is out, but sometimes they get hung up on teams with good records near the bubble. Like a "when in doubt, who's won a lot of games?" And if they do that I'd put Pitt in and Oklahoma State out.

I don't think Wisconsin will even be one of the first four out.

Got it, that makes sense, thanks.

Nice work on the projections!

Based on how the bracketing procedures work… if we are a 5 I would guess the odds of the 1 seed pairing to be

39% Houston
35% Kansas
25% Purdue
1% Alabama


It's really hard to get that far because outside of the top 4 seed lines it's pretty randomized. Even putting Alabama in our path is allowable per the bracketing rules. We wouldn't play them until round of 16 which is ok and we aren't a top 4 seed.

If we are a 6 throw these out the window and it's nearly a 25% chance for either of them since they are on the other side of he regional bracket.

FAU and Utah State drawing each other would be a bummer so I'm certain you have the right.

You could argue Arizona state has more big wins than pitt actually. Asu has 2 quad 1a wins and 5 quad 1 to pitts 4. To me asu's creighton win in Vegas is equivalent to pitt beating NW. And certainly beating Arizona on the road is>>>> beating nc state on the road.

Edit- read your response wrong. Yes I agree with your point but asu and Pitt both have 22 wins, with asu a significantly harder schedule. And ya OSU only has 18 but I can't even fathom comparing the acc schedule to the big 12 with a straight face.

Nm

100%!!

ExtremeRush said:

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Looks like the majority of bracketologists on BracketMatrix have us as a six.

Do you feel pretty good about a 5 seed or do you think it's a coin flip between a 5 and 6?

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Link for the folks.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Good stuff! If this is the bracket for real, I like our chances to advance out of that West region.

Edit to add that I also see tu winning that region, unfortunately.

So we all like this bracket. Which means we will not get anything close to this.

Awesome job this year colleyville

Great job as always. I think Nevada will be in ahead of ASU or OSU and maybe MSU

Tennessee over us?? Nope

Lake08 said:

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Tennessee over us?? Nope

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We're a better team but they will be ahead of us

Here are the images that I couldn't figure out earlier:
And here is the link to the post on GBH

https://www.goodbullhunting.com/2023/3/12/23635560/final-bracket-projections-selection-sunday-ncaa-tournament-march-madness-college-basketball

I know we beat Tennessee and truly believe we are a better team than them right now. They also beat Kansas, Texas and Alabama - 3 of the best 6 teams in the country. In addition to usc and Maryland non conference and won their game at miss state. They also don't have a quad 3 or 4 loss. We have 2 quad 4. There is no world where we are seeded ahead of them. That said I think most teams would rather see Tenn in their bracket and not us.

Exactly.

Nevada was the team I debated most (not Pitt) including. Ultimately the lack of good wins does them in I think.

so we have to go through Houston and Baylor to FF?

I like it.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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I know we beat Tennessee and truly believe we are a better team than them right now. They also beat Kansas, Texas and Alabama - 3 of the best 6 teams in the country. In addition to usc and Maryland non conference and won their game at miss state. They also don't have a quad 3 or 4 loss. We have 2 quad 4. There is no world where we are seeded ahead of them. That said I think most teams would rather see Tenn in their bracket and not us.

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Good points but A&m also finished 4 games ahead of Tenn in the same conference, finished better than them in the SEC tourney and A&M is 10-1 in last 11 and Tenn is 5-6.

Tenn is also 2nd in bpi (A&M 15), 6 in Kenpom (a&m 19), 10th in sagarin (A&M 16).

Making this prediction now. Look for the west to be the weakest region …. By far.

Also, the more I look at first game possibilities the more I am convinced Albany is the most likely site.

Lunardis final bracket is out. He also has A&M as the last 5 seed and playing in Albany.

We are the same on 67 teams, I have ok state in over pitt.

Eff the committee!! A 7?! You gotta be kidding me!

Here is how i did this year.
Got 66/68, a bit disappointed in that, usually i get 67. I had Ok State and Rutgers instead of Pitt and Nevada. Pitt and Nevada were my #69 and #70, OK state was #68. Rutgers was my final bye (#64)

I got the 4 one seeds correct but mixed up #2 overall and #3 overall.
On the 2 line i flipped the 8 and 9 seeds. Marquette got the last 2, not Gonzaga. I did call correctly Baylor falling to a 3.
Flipped Uconn and Xavier on the 3/4 line. Xavier was my top 4 seed.
I missed badly on A&M. I had them as my last 5 seed. They were one of 3 teams i was 2 seeds off on (I had FAU as my last 7 and they got a 9, I had Iowa as a 10 and they got an 8.) Having Iowa>FAU is certainly a choice.

In terms of matchups predicted i got the following exact
-San Diego State vs. Charleston
-Texas vs. Colgate
-Baylor vs. UCSB
-USC vs. Michigan State
-Northwestern vs. Boise State
-Indiana vs. Kent State

So pretty happy with 6 of the 28 set first round matchups exactly correct.