greg.w.h said:
I don't see any problem with it as a prediction. But I think it can't factor in coaching as a difference maker.
In other words "we will see."
he briefly addressed how coaching changes factor into his preseason ratings a few years back...
There is also a penalty for a coaching change, with a greater hit for teams ranked higher. Basically, teams that change coaches tend to underperform their counterparts that have not changed coaches, all other things being equal.I have no idea how much he penalizes teams for coaching changes, or if we were even "penalized" going from Kennedy to Buzz, but I think there is some wisdom in expecting a minor setback with the change in personnel, schemes, and everything else that comes with making a switch.
Last year, we started mid-40s and ended up #91, and now we're back to the low-50s, so it doesn't appear that his numbers are too down on our program or our coach.