I don't see any problem with it as a prediction. But I think it can't factor in coaching as a difference maker.

In other words "we will see."

greg.w.h said:

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I don't see any problem with it as a prediction. But I think it can't factor in coaching as a difference maker.

In other words "we will see."

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he briefly addressed how coaching changes factor into his preseason ratings a few years back...

There is also a penalty for a coaching change, with a greater hit for teams ranked higher. Basically, teams that change coaches tend to underperform their counterparts that have not changed coaches, all other things being equal.

I have no idea how much he penalizes teams for coaching changes, or if we were even "penalized" going from Kennedy to Buzz, but I think there is some wisdom in expecting a minor setback with the change in personnel, schemes, and everything else that comes with making a switch.

Last year, we started mid-40s and ended up #91, and now we're back to the low-50s, so it doesn't appear that his numbers are too down on our program or our coach.

I have no problem with methodology or typical results. My hope is we excel at changing coaches this time.

Steal the right two games and the rest meet expectations and can finish fourth in conference. I would take that

that #292 tempo ranking would be the 2nd slowest team in Buzz's last 10 years, topped only by his team last year

We would have 2 more games in Orlando after the 1st round tournament game against Harvard. According to Kenpom, we would be forecast to lose both:

L to #16 Maryland
L to #48 USC

So that would make the Kenpom forecast for our season 16-14 overall (8-4 non-conference, 8-10 in SEC play). Non-conference losses projected to Gonzaga, Texas, Maryland, and USC. And top 100 non-conference wins projected over Harvard, Oregon St., and Oklahoma St.

Will tune in just to watch a team that I know will show up ready to play, play hard for 40 minutes and have some games where they surprise people. Buzz has recruited some good young talent.

Kenpom is relatively ineffective before there are enough data to create a significant Beta distribution (or F distribution maybe), but his models are good enough for nerdy types like me.

I do have a quarrel with the Texas projection though. I'm not sold on Shaka Smart. His "havoc" defense is a shell of its 2011 peak and his offense completely implodes against defenses that don't get beat by jumping the passing lanes.

USC is also a weird projection. Andy "People think I'm a billionaire hedge fund manager" Enfield has done nothing exciting.

Obviously an early season transition period will bring some sad times, but I wouldn't think Texas and USC are the usual suspects.

Tango_Mike said:

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Kenpom is relatively ineffective before there are enough data to create a significant Beta distribution (or F distribution maybe), but his models are good enough for nerdy types like me.

I do have a quarrel with the Texas projection though. I'm not sold on Shaka Smart. His "havoc" defense is a shell of its 2011 peak and his offense completely implodes against defenses that don't get beat by jumping the passing lanes.

USC is also a weird projection. Andy "People think I'm a billionaire hedge fund manager" Enfield has done nothing exciting.

Obviously an early season transition period will bring some sad times, but I wouldn't think Texas and USC are the usual suspects.

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How he jumpstarts his models probably isn't dissimilar to why polls and power indexes and even some sims agree more than they disagree...

I enjoy the analytics. And I'm always interested in how they correlate to the game outcomes. And probably even more interested when they don't.

Gonzaga win total for regular season opens at NCAA-high 27.5

Hope we aren't one of them.

Junkhead said:

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Gonzaga win total for regular season opens at NCAA-high 27.5

Hope we aren't one of them.

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If the crowd is right...then probably...

greg.w.h said:

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Tango_Mike said:

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Kenpom is relatively ineffective before there are enough data to create a significant Beta distribution (or F distribution maybe), but his models are good enough for nerdy types like me.

I do have a quarrel with the Texas projection though. I'm not sold on Shaka Smart. His "havoc" defense is a shell of its 2011 peak and his offense completely implodes against defenses that don't get beat by jumping the passing lanes.

USC is also a weird projection. Andy "People think I'm a billionaire hedge fund manager" Enfield has done nothing exciting.

Obviously an early season transition period will bring some sad times, but I wouldn't think Texas and USC are the usual suspects.

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How he jumpstarts his models probably isn't dissimilar to why polls and power indexes and even some sims agree more than they disagree...

I enjoy the analytics. And I'm always interested in how they correlate to the game outcomes. And probably even more interested when they don't.

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I gotta be honest dog, I don't have any idea what you're saying. Try using active voice, short concise sentences

bobinator said:

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At least helps those of us that think this roster has the potential to be pretty good. I think the core of this team is a lot better than most people realize (not talking about folks on here obviously.)

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Correct. Assuming Nebo is back in a reasonable amount of time, and with Buzz' desire to go positionless, I think we can be pretty good by the time SEC season begins. We're fortunate in a way that overall talent in the NCAAs is way down and also down in the SEC. This puts coaching at a premium. Discipline will pay off as the season progresses. The re-emergence of a perimeter defense and perimeter offense should be a sight for sore eyes in Aggieland.

We have a core of top 150 players with 2-3 years of on court experience (the kind that remain in college instead of enlisting for NBA and Euro service), who are now receiving the great coaching and instruction we've been longing for. I think we're going to surprise a lot of people...including ourselves.

Junkhead said:

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Gonzaga win total for regular season opens at NCAA-high 27.5

Hope we aren't one of them.

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Gonzaga plays in a conference with the likes of Pepperdine and Pacific.

Nothing between overall of 10-20 or overall of 20-10 would surprise me.

wacarnolds said:

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16-12 overall

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one 30 pt home loss later and we're now looking at a 13-15 projected record

I'm starting to feel like this season won't be about W's and L's to coach. Could be a bit disappointing if we're expecting tournament play.

Effort and energy. That is all I want to see this year.

I'd be tickled pink if we hit that level at season's end.
I don't see it but I sure would like it.
The talent deficit is just too big. Mix in a couple of injuries (already happened) and that's a pretty tall hill to climb.

Love Buzz's energy. He will get the most from his players but I don't think that's enough.