Think "big balls" Woodward will pull the plug on BK if A&M doesn't make the tourney this year?
Scott Woodward
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Last: 6 yr ago by TMF
Based on his history, no.
I doubt it. Until the roster is in dire shape too many will punt the ball.
This isn't based on his history, just more based on a gut feeling, but I think he will if we actually fail to make the tournament because even our average everyday fans know we should have been a lot better this year.
I'm confident in Woodwards stated desire to accountability in winning national and conference championships in ALL sports. I'm also confident that he is acutely aware that he has a " special" case in firing a coach with a debilitating disease and two years removed from an SEC Championship.
Adding to the challenge is the apparent guardian angel status that BK enjoys from some large donors.
If Woodward decides at the end of this year that BK is not capable of sustaining and building on the 2016 success, then he really has only one option...convince Billy to retire and he will receive the full payout of $4.5m paid out over time. Failing at that then Woodward would have to wait 1-2 more years of failed expectations before he could make a move to fire him.
" Billy....if you retire now I can ensure your personal financial security in the future, but if you decide to continue, Ill not be able to give you another extension and your payout will drop significantly unless you win an SEC Championship or get to the sweet 16 in 2018-2019."
Adding to the challenge is the apparent guardian angel status that BK enjoys from some large donors.
If Woodward decides at the end of this year that BK is not capable of sustaining and building on the 2016 success, then he really has only one option...convince Billy to retire and he will receive the full payout of $4.5m paid out over time. Failing at that then Woodward would have to wait 1-2 more years of failed expectations before he could make a move to fire him.
" Billy....if you retire now I can ensure your personal financial security in the future, but if you decide to continue, Ill not be able to give you another extension and your payout will drop significantly unless you win an SEC Championship or get to the sweet 16 in 2018-2019."
Hell Bent Canine -All or None
DogCompany74 said:
I'm confident in Woodwards stated desire to accountability in winning national and conference championships in ALL sports. I'm also confident that he is acutely aware that he has a " special" case in firing a coach with a debilitating disease and two years removed from an SEC Championship.
Adding to the challenge is the apparent guardian angel status that BK enjoys from some large donors.
If Woodward decides at the end of this year that BK is not capable of sustaining and building on the 2016 success, then he really has only one option...convince Billy to retire and he will receive the full payout of $4.5m paid out over time. Failing at that then Woodward would have to wait 1-2 more years of failed expectations before he could make a move to fire him.
" Billy....if you retire now I can ensure your personal financial security in the future, but if you decide to continue, Ill not be able to give you another extension and your payout will drop significantly unless you win an SEC Championship or get to the sweet 16 in 2018-2019."
There is no financial security carrot to dangle.
We either pay $3.5-4.5m to buy him out, or he coaches another 3 years and collects $6.9m.
Yeah, we either pay to fire him, or pay to keep him. He's getting paid either way.
I think the fan base needs a new start.
Just for the sake of argument, if this team does go on a hot streak and some how makes the Sweet Sixteen again, does the fan base need a new start then?Double Diamond said:
I think the fan base needs a new start.
Just trying to get a baseline, because while making the tourney is difficult at this point, it could still happen. And if we get hot during that time, who knows...
I don't think the last sweet 16 Run did that much. I mean the bridge had been long burnt. I could be wrong. But I don't get the feeling it did.
Sustained success is what builds the fan base.
Preseason ranking actually has more to do with attendance than previous year's success.
There was FAR more demand this year, even before we were Top 10, than there was the year after our Sweet 16 appearance.
Preseason ranking actually has more to do with attendance than previous year's success.
There was FAR more demand this year, even before we were Top 10, than there was the year after our Sweet 16 appearance.
As hard as it is, I think you have to make up your mind about firing someone before the NCAA Tournament starts. If it's really THAT CLOSE, then you probably shouldn't fire them based on one or two more games. And if they should be fired, then a couple of wins shouldn't be enough to get them off the chopping block.
2014 Tennessee with Cuonzo Martin was actually one of these cases. They were one of the last four teams in the field, but then made the Sweet 16. Did beating another team that barely got in in Iowa, then UMASS in the first round and then a 14 seed that upset someone in the first round make up the entire rest of the season?
2014 Tennessee with Cuonzo Martin was actually one of these cases. They were one of the last four teams in the field, but then made the Sweet 16. Did beating another team that barely got in in Iowa, then UMASS in the first round and then a 14 seed that upset someone in the first round make up the entire rest of the season?
Hes not good enough
IMHO....There are many long time basketball fans who like me feel Byrne took a chance in making a last minute hire of a mediocre mid tier coach who happened to have Texas A&M on his meh resume and was available for cheap.
Right it wrong , once he was diagnosed with Parkinsons it became a matter of putting his physical and financial well being ahead of judging his performance as a coach and as a program builder. Poor Billy had a lot of " explanations " as to why werent going to the NCAA but the discussions usually started with Billy can't be responsible for Year 1-2.
Anyway, the Miraculous Sweet 16 temporarily showed that Billy was on the right track finally. But then we didn't have a point guard in 2016/2017 and we are on the verge of being eliminated from the tourney because of the annual Kennedy Swoon and will probably end up 8-10 in conference.
All of this doesn't really matter because with.the preposterous extension and buy out we are stuck with Coach 52% for as long as he wants to be here because I seriously doubt there is a leader at A&M that will fire him regardless of the buyout. Woodward would truly amaze me if he decides to burn his well deserved credibility on the Billy Kennedy situation with anything less than a complete 10 win disaster.
Right it wrong , once he was diagnosed with Parkinsons it became a matter of putting his physical and financial well being ahead of judging his performance as a coach and as a program builder. Poor Billy had a lot of " explanations " as to why werent going to the NCAA but the discussions usually started with Billy can't be responsible for Year 1-2.
Anyway, the Miraculous Sweet 16 temporarily showed that Billy was on the right track finally. But then we didn't have a point guard in 2016/2017 and we are on the verge of being eliminated from the tourney because of the annual Kennedy Swoon and will probably end up 8-10 in conference.
All of this doesn't really matter because with.the preposterous extension and buy out we are stuck with Coach 52% for as long as he wants to be here because I seriously doubt there is a leader at A&M that will fire him regardless of the buyout. Woodward would truly amaze me if he decides to burn his well deserved credibility on the Billy Kennedy situation with anything less than a complete 10 win disaster.
Hell Bent Canine -All or None
If we do miss the tournament, I don't think he will have much of a choice. This was touted as the "most talented team we've ever had," and regardless of whether or not you believe that to be true, if you miss the tournament Woodward would have a hard time justifying not making a change. Additionally, so much of the fanbase is already anti BK or just purely apathetic I can't imagine trying to sell it as a positive if he returned under that scenario.
I don't think we will see it happen though, as I think we'll sneak in the tournament, they'll trumpet it as a success, and we'll be strung along for one final year next year when we see roster mismanagement issues rear their head again, similar to last year. I'd love a scenario as Bob describes though in which we make the decision to go a new direction before making the tournament, but I have a hard time seeing that happening at A&M with the way we tend approach basketball.
I don't think we will see it happen though, as I think we'll sneak in the tournament, they'll trumpet it as a success, and we'll be strung along for one final year next year when we see roster mismanagement issues rear their head again, similar to last year. I'd love a scenario as Bob describes though in which we make the decision to go a new direction before making the tournament, but I have a hard time seeing that happening at A&M with the way we tend approach basketball.
Yeah, and just to be clear, in no way is what I said a prediction of how things would actually play out. I have a hard time imagining us firing a coach that made the NCAA Tournament, even if they just barely make it and get bounced right away, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.Topher17 said:
I'd love a scenario as Bob describes though in which we make the decision to go a new direction before making the tournament, but I have a hard time seeing that happening at A&M with the way we tend approach basketball.
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I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.bobinator said:
As hard as it is, I think you have to make up your mind about firing someone before the NCAA Tournament starts. If it's really THAT CLOSE, then you probably shouldn't fire them based on one or two more games. And if they should be fired, then a couple of wins shouldn't be enough to get them off the chopping block.
2014 Tennessee with Cuonzo Martin was actually one of these cases. They were one of the last four teams in the field, but then made the Sweet 16. Did beating another team that barely got in in Iowa, then UMASS in the first round and then a 14 seed that upset someone in the first round make up the entire rest of the season?
bobinator said:Yeah, and just to be clear, in no way is what I said a prediction of how things would actually play out. I have a hard time imagining us firing a coach that made the NCAA Tournament, even if they just barely make it and get bounced right away, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.Topher17 said:
I'd love a scenario as Bob describes though in which we make the decision to go a new direction before making the tournament, but I have a hard time seeing that happening at A&M with the way we tend approach basketball.
I think there's another variable to it - attendance. It continues its decline, the math gets a bit easier too.
Based on what happened with Sumlin I'm optimistic Woodward will make the move if the trends continue. It's a no brainer if we don't make the tourney (should be even if we do), but I think he's given Kennedy enough rope.
Great point by Hop too. Lots of smoke that the AAU coaches in Texas have had it with the lack of player development under Kennedy.Hop said:I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.bobinator said:
As hard as it is, I think you have to make up your mind about firing someone before the NCAA Tournament starts. If it's really THAT CLOSE, then you probably shouldn't fire them based on one or two more games. And if they should be fired, then a couple of wins shouldn't be enough to get them off the chopping block.
2014 Tennessee with Cuonzo Martin was actually one of these cases. They were one of the last four teams in the field, but then made the Sweet 16. Did beating another team that barely got in in Iowa, then UMASS in the first round and then a 14 seed that upset someone in the first round make up the entire rest of the season?
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Attendance isn't a big variable this season. Most of the attendance is already baked into the season because people loaded up on tickets to the big conference games in November when it looked like the team was going to make some serious noise.AG 2000' said:bobinator said:Yeah, and just to be clear, in no way is what I said a prediction of how things would actually play out. I have a hard time imagining us firing a coach that made the NCAA Tournament, even if they just barely make it and get bounced right away, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised.Topher17 said:
I'd love a scenario as Bob describes though in which we make the decision to go a new direction before making the tournament, but I have a hard time seeing that happening at A&M with the way we tend approach basketball.
I think there's another variable to it - attendance. It continues its decline, the math gets a bit easier too.
Based on what happened with Sumlin I'm optimistic Woodward will make the move if the trends continue. It's a no brainer if we don't make the tourney (should be even if we do), but I think he's given Kennedy enough rope.
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I'm not so sure that is the primary reason.AG 2000' said:Great point by Hop too. Lots of smoke that the AAU coaches in Texas have had it with the lack of player development under Kennedy.Hop said:I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.bobinator said:
As hard as it is, I think you have to make up your mind about firing someone before the NCAA Tournament starts. If it's really THAT CLOSE, then you probably shouldn't fire them based on one or two more games. And if they should be fired, then a couple of wins shouldn't be enough to get them off the chopping block.
2014 Tennessee with Cuonzo Martin was actually one of these cases. They were one of the last four teams in the field, but then made the Sweet 16. Did beating another team that barely got in in Iowa, then UMASS in the first round and then a 14 seed that upset someone in the first round make up the entire rest of the season?
Recruiting is nothing more than a means to an end.
An elite recruiter who doesn't win games...has to go.
An elite recruiter who doesn't win games...has to go.
First and foremost is winning. I wouldn't care if we had the number one recruiting class in America signed for next year, Kennedy has simply not won enough games for me, and if we end up a 8-9 seed or worse then that will still be the case.Hop said:
I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.
But nobody said the referendum on Kennedy should be whether or not we make the NCAA's (other than OP who posed it as a hypothetical.) There are people that are predicting whether or not the AD will see it that way, which I think is a fair point of view. Wondering whether we'd actually fire a coach that made the NCAA Tournament is a good question.
I get when you're saying with recruiting, and I think that's a part of the conversation, but winning with the team we have is the most important thing.
As the previous posters said... Bad coaches can lean on recruiting BECAUSE the talent overcomes the coaching.
But if the talent isn't overcoming the coaching, then it doesn't matter how well you are recruiting.
I think most of us who have paid attention have known Kennedy wasn't a very good in-game/strategic coach from at least Year 2->on. But the glimmer of hope in all of this was the recruiting -- if he was able to stack classes then he could be a Scott Drew circa-a-decade-ago... Not a very good coach, but he rolled the ball out there for his studs and they sandwiched a couple of Elite 8's among tourney-misses.
Not the consistency I'd like, but if you can make 2nd weekend noise every couple of years then you can look passed a lot.
But so far what we've seen is A) The talent isn't overcoming the coaching and B) The recruiting isn't stacking classes.
So that glimmer is gone.
Woe is us.
But if the talent isn't overcoming the coaching, then it doesn't matter how well you are recruiting.
I think most of us who have paid attention have known Kennedy wasn't a very good in-game/strategic coach from at least Year 2->on. But the glimmer of hope in all of this was the recruiting -- if he was able to stack classes then he could be a Scott Drew circa-a-decade-ago... Not a very good coach, but he rolled the ball out there for his studs and they sandwiched a couple of Elite 8's among tourney-misses.
Not the consistency I'd like, but if you can make 2nd weekend noise every couple of years then you can look passed a lot.
But so far what we've seen is A) The talent isn't overcoming the coaching and B) The recruiting isn't stacking classes.
So that glimmer is gone.
Woe is us.
Clearly both winning and recruiting are big factors. Kennedy has clearly not won enough games in his tenure and if this team is another case of a team underachieving under his leadership, which right now it is, you can then look at what Hop is saying with regards to state of the program. If Woodward looks at the program and says, "Well Kennedy only tends to win when he has a talented and experienced roster," he will easily be able to look at recruiting and the overall future roster and determine we're going to continue losing a lot of games.bobinator said:First and foremost is winning. I wouldn't care if we had the number one recruiting class in America signed for next year, Kennedy has simply not won enough games for me, and if we end up a 8-9 seed or worse then that will still be the case.Hop said:
I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.
But nobody said the referendum on Kennedy should be whether or not we make the NCAA's (other than OP who posed it as a hypothetical.) There are people that are predicting whether or not the AD will see it that way, which I think is a fair point of view. Wondering whether we'd actually fire a coach that made the NCAA Tournament is a good question.
I get when you're saying with recruiting, and I think that's a part of the conversation, but winning with the team we have is the most important thing.
In my opinion, Kennedy already got his free season where he under performed but was saved by recruiting. Prior to the 15-16 year you could reasonably say it appeared we were on an upward trajectory, but now that's clearly not the case. I don't see how you could justify it this go around, even if recruiting looked better than it does. There is too much evidence he is lacking in overall coaching ability at this level, regardless of the talent he manages to bring in.
thisTopher17 said:Clearly both winning and recruiting are big factors. Kennedy has clearly not won enough games in his tenure and if this team is another case of a team underachieving under his leadership, which right now it is, you can then look at what Hop is saying with regards to state of the program. If Woodward looks at the program and says, "Well Kennedy only tends to win when he has a talented and experienced roster," he will easily be able to look at recruiting and the overall future roster and determine we're going to continue losing a lot of games.bobinator said:First and foremost is winning. I wouldn't care if we had the number one recruiting class in America signed for next year, Kennedy has simply not won enough games for me, and if we end up a 8-9 seed or worse then that will still be the case.Hop said:
I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.
But nobody said the referendum on Kennedy should be whether or not we make the NCAA's (other than OP who posed it as a hypothetical.) There are people that are predicting whether or not the AD will see it that way, which I think is a fair point of view. Wondering whether we'd actually fire a coach that made the NCAA Tournament is a good question.
I get when you're saying with recruiting, and I think that's a part of the conversation, but winning with the team we have is the most important thing.
In my opinion, Kennedy already got his free season where he under performed but was saved by recruiting. Prior to the 15-16 year you could reasonably say it appeared we were on an upward trajectory, but now that's clearly not the case. I don't see how you could justify it this go around, even if recruiting looked better than it does. There is too much evidence he is lacking in overall coaching ability at this level, regardless of the talent he manages to bring in.
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TXAggie2011 said:
Recruiting is nothing more than a means to an end.
An elite recruiter who doesn't win games...has to go.
And your point meets my point at the end.
If money wasn't a factor, then I doubt Woodward's decision would be that difficult.
As it stands, I don't believe there's some donor willing to pitch in $4.5m to buyout the coach. This ain't football.
Likewise I don't think the athletic department cant justify spending $4.5m extra on a program that doesn't turn much of a profit as it is... I don't know the accounting #'s, but I'd guess that is more profit than the program makes in a year.
As it stands, I don't believe there's some donor willing to pitch in $4.5m to buyout the coach. This ain't football.
Likewise I don't think the athletic department cant justify spending $4.5m extra on a program that doesn't turn much of a profit as it is... I don't know the accounting #'s, but I'd guess that is more profit than the program makes in a year.
Hop said:TXAggie2011 said:
Recruiting is nothing more than a means to an end.
An elite recruiter who doesn't win games...has to go.
And your point meets my point at the end.
What?
I think that was Hop for "the conclusion is the same, even if the way of getting there was different"
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bobinator said:First and foremost is winning. I wouldn't care if we had the number one recruiting class in America signed for next year, Kennedy has simply not won enough games for me, and if we end up a 8-9 seed or worse then that will still be the case.Hop said:
I don't see why the referendum on Kennedy is whether he makes the NCAA's or not in 2018. You have to look at the lifeline of the program first and foremost...recruiting. Is this staff filling the pipeline? Unfortunately, right now that answer is no. Yeah, I'll be happy if they make it and turn things around this season, but that doesn't change the trajectory of where the program is headed.
But nobody said the referendum on Kennedy should be whether or not we make the NCAA's (other than OP who posed it as a hypothetical.) There are people that are predicting whether or not the AD will see it that way, which I think is a fair point of view. Wondering whether we'd actually fire a coach that made the NCAA Tournament is a good question.
I get when you're saying with recruiting, and I think that's a part of the conversation, but winning with the team we have is the most important thing.
What do you mean there's no referendum from Aggie posters on this site? The most asked question I've seen here and on the premium board over on my weekly hoops discussion thread is "Hop, does Kennedy get fired if he doesn't make the NCAA's this year."
It is being discussed in almost every thread about Kennedy and the basketball program. Nobody is suggesting making the NCAA's is a referendum? Really?
For this season at this moment...you are dead wrong. Winning and squeezing into the tourney will have ZERO impact on the program going forward. How does going to the NCAA's affect the current trajectory of the program given what we currently know about the 2018 recruiting class?
I agree that a coach who recruits well doesn't automatically mean that he'll do well. Johnny Jones showed us that. But on the flip side, what we do know is that this staff will not have success if the talent level in the program recedes...and barring a couple of four-star posts landing in their laps this spring (and right now, there are no serious targets to speak of) the talent will start to recede after this season. That will likely happen whether A&M finishes 1-17 in SEC or 10-8 and a trip to the dance. So in this context going forward, winning isn't the most important thing. It's important to us as fans, but in this specific case going to the NCAA's will have a minuscule impact (if any) on the current trajectory of this program because the trajectory is already baked.
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An "elite recruiter" who can't recruit won't keep his job either.TXAggie2011 said:Hop said:TXAggie2011 said:
Recruiting is nothing more than a means to an end.
An elite recruiter who doesn't win games...has to go.
And your point meets my point at the end.
What?
I think the check writers don't look at things with a forward mind. They are prisoners of the moment. And I think the tournament maybe the NIT will be fine. Unless Woodard has money I don't know about to fire Kennedy and get another coach. This contract I'm afraid has given Kennedy a lot of leash.
I totally agree with your mindset and thoughts Hop. Just don't think Kennedy's church crew will.
I totally agree with your mindset and thoughts Hop. Just don't think Kennedy's church crew will.
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And you hit the nail on the head. If A&M wants to be consistently good in basketball, there has to be an active donor or an AD that is very much educated in basketball and the landscape of college basketball and is motivated to be proactive. It's not a coincidence that Wichita State is consistently a successful program even though they get their head coach poached about every 5-6 years. They have somebody that knows college basketball and can identify the up-and-coming coach that will be successful at Wichita State. Basketball is important to them.Double Diamond said:
I think the check writers don't look at things with a forward mind. They are prisoners of the moment. And I think the tournament maybe the NIT will be fine. Unless Woodard has money I don't know about to fire Kennedy and get another coach. This contract I'm afraid has given Kennedy a lot of leash.
I totally agree with your mindset and thoughts Hop. Just don't think Kennedy's church crew will.
I don't think the issue is that the "church crew" as you put it will circle the wagons around Kennedy. I just think A&M hired an AD based on his track record in football, and the university sent the message that his success or failure will be judged by what he does in football. A Texas A&M AD has never been fired for fielding a bad basketball team. I think the only way the AD makes a coaching change in basketball is if the groundswell is too loud and the status quo would make him look bad. If the team goes to the NCAA's, the volume of A&M fans and donors demanding a change will soften....and then there's spring football to take away any lingering complaints about basketball. Unfortunately, that's just the fact of life here.
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