2016-17 Roster Discussion

10,837 Views | 116 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by bobinator
wacarnolds
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AG
quote:
I have top 4 in the SEC and top 35 nationally expectations.

quote:
I think we should be top 30-ish. And yeah, until someone else in the SEC actually proves their worth half a crap, why not top 3?


GE
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Minutes if everybody is as good as advertised:
PG: Caldwell - 25, Gilder - 15
SG: Gilder - 15, Eubanks - 15
SF: Hogg - 30, Eubanks - 10
PF: Trocha - 25, Williams - 15
C: Davis - 25, Miller - 15

Looking at those numbers, we are in desperate need of either a guard or a small forward as an insurance policy of Eubanks and Caldwell aren't as game ready as we hope. The other, less likely out would be if Williams can play some small forward and we can increase his minutes at the expense of either Caldwell or Eubanks.
bobinator
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ugh, messed up a their/they're. Do I have to kill myself now?
wacarnolds
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ugh, messed up a their/they're. Do I have to kill myself now?
Report for up-downs at 6am.
wacarnolds
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quote:
Minutes if everybody is as good as advertised:
PG: Caldwell - 25, Gilder - 15
SG: Gilder - 15, Eubanks - 15
SF: Hogg - 30, Eubanks - 10
PF: Trocha - 25, Williams - 15
C: Davis - 25, Miller - 15

Looking at those numbers, we are in desperate need of either a guard or a small forward as an insurance policy of Eubanks and Caldwell aren't as game ready as we hope. The other, less likely out would be if Williams can play some small forward and we can increase his minutes at the expense of either Caldwell or Eubanks.
I think it's also fair to say Kennedy will need to become better with substitution patterns to manage such a relatively thin bench.
bobinator
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Or we could just blow everyone out and not have to worry about it. I think we should do that.
gphid97
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AG
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Agree. So does that mean we should have top-3 in SEC and top-25 nationally expectations?
I think we should be top 30-ish. And yeah, until someone else in the SEC actually proves they're worth half a crap, why not top 3?
This. Because if we can't finish in the top three there will be no NCAA tournament next year unless we get lucky with a few of our non-conference opponents significantly exceeding expectations.
GE
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quote:
quote:
Minutes if everybody is as good as advertised:
PG: Caldwell - 25, Gilder - 15
SG: Gilder - 15, Eubanks - 15
SF: Hogg - 30, Eubanks - 10
PF: Trocha - 25, Williams - 15
C: Davis - 25, Miller - 15

Looking at those numbers, we are in desperate need of either a guard or a small forward as an insurance policy of Eubanks and Caldwell aren't as game ready as we hope. The other, less likely out would be if Williams can play some small forward and we can increase his minutes at the expense of either Caldwell or Eubanks.
I think it's also fair to say Kennedy will need to become better with substitution patterns to manage such a relatively thin bench.
I didn't have that much of a problem with his substitution patterns this season. The bigger struggle is going to be identifying the players who can be depended on in critical situations. Gilder is the only player so far that has proven to be consistently dependable in clutch situations
mdanyc03
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I see a uniquely high variability next year. We could miss the tournament. We could be better than last year. Jj could be not ready or he could be an instant sensation. Hogg could be the same player or he could be all sec. Same for tonny. None of those things would surprise me.
GE
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Something I really like about the starting five is everybody fits their position well. From Caldwell to Davis, everyone is a "true" version of their position. That's in contrast to most of the previous lineups we've had in the recent past
bobinator
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quote:

I didn't have that much of a problem with his substitution patterns this season. The bigger struggle is going to be identifying the players who can be depended on in critical situations. Gilder is the only player so far that has proven to be consistently dependable in clutch situations
Davis also. Although I guess that's not really a substitution question since if it's the last few minutes of the game and he's not in the game he better be fouled out or dead.
bobinator
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Something I really like about the starting five is everybody fits their position well. From Caldwell to Davis, everyone is a "true" version of their position. That's in contrast to most of the previous lineups we've had in the recent past
Is that good? I think I'd rather have flexible players given a choice.
GE
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True on Davis. I was just thinking guard forward since they'll be the ones handling the ball and likely shooting free throws towards the end.
GE
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quote:
quote:
Something I really like about the starting five is everybody fits their position well. From Caldwell to Davis, everyone is a "true" version of their position. That's in contrast to most of the previous lineups we've had in the recent past
Is that good? I think I'd rather have flexible players given a choice.
Yes that's good. Our players are pretty flexible outside of Caldwell and Davis.

To elaborate, someone with length who can shoot and score being the ideal small forward, a 6'3 to 6'5 guy who can flat out score, handle the ball, and play lock down D being the ideal shooting guard, etc.... Not so much that they can only play that position, more that each player has the ideal skill set and body/athleticism for the position they are at.

Contrast that to Green and Caruso not being willing shooters playing the 2 or 3, Fabyon not really distributing from the 1, etc...
hoya-ag
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You really only need an 8 man rotation, and the 8th guy only needs to play 15-18 min a game with the rest over 20. I think we went a little too deep last year at times when we could have played some guys more minutes. Including speculation of a grad transfer guard we have a potential nine man rotation.

Caldwell
Gilder*
Hogg*
Eubanks
Transfer Guard*
Davis*
Trocha*
Miller
Williams

We know the guys with asterisks are going to be over 20 min a game. I think Gilder plays 30 min a game easily, and I assume Davis and Hogg will be around that number as well. I am assuming the transfer guard will play or he wouldn't be coming here. If he isn't, then Caldwell is a stud out of the gate. Either way we are good. So we really just need one from Miller/Williams and one from Caldwell/Eubanks to be able to contribute 20+ minutes a game, or we can go 9 deep and play those guys between 12 and 17 min a game. I think we will be fine on depth.
tehmackdaddy
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#1 Need is an experienced true PG to run the offense, show Caldwell the ropes, and help him transition into more playing time gradually instead of just throwing him in the deep end and hoping he figures out how to swim in time for us to make a run at making the tournament.

#2 Need is a big body that can defend the rim and rebound, giving our starting bigs a rest and letting the offense run more through the swingmen instead of the post. He doesn't have to much of an offensive game (other than putbacks), but playing sound defense, rebounding the ball, and helping us stay out of foul trouble is huge.

Just based on the end of last season and not making any leaps of faith in player development (though some should obviously be expected, we just don't know who or how much), we have guys who can shoot, but not true scorers that can take over and create when we need someone to. We aren't going to find scorers that make an impact in March out there in the transfer market.

We have an incoming freshman PG whose transition to the college level is currently a "?". We have an incoming freshman post player whose transition to the college level is currently a "?". I have high hopes for both of them, but I don't want the success of the season to rest on the hopes that both of those players can plug right in and play big-time basketball. Maybe I'm just not used to getting recruits ranked this high, but the Davises and Gilders of the world are a blessing, but not the normal expectation for freshmen.

If we add a PG and a post player we have a chance to make the tournament again and not see a huge drop off from last season, which will help us continue to recruit well and set us up well for 2017-18 (the next season I imagine us having a shot at being a Top 10 team).
bobinator
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I just think the "true" thing is overrated. For that matter positions are kind of overrated in college basketball.
tehmackdaddy
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I think Gilder plays 30 min a game easily, and I assume Davis and Hogg will be around that number as well.
Hogg needs to make huge strides to warrant playing that much (other than we have no one else to play). He was a defensive liability, was turnover prone, a streaky shooter, and generally just looked slow and sluggish. His rebounding improved as the season went along, but not enough to go up against a true PF if he is asked to defend one.
mdanyc03
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Regardless of what grad transfer we get, he is going to be a rotational guy and jj is going to be running the show from day one with 25 minutes a game. Just embrace it. It is happening.
tehmackdaddy
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I just think the "true" thing is overrated. For that matter positions are kind of overrated in college basketball.
Not against quality opponents.

Caruso is considered to be a good ball handler, but when up against not just elite PG's like Ulis, but "true" PGs with a quick-twitch makeup in the lackluster conference that is the SEC it was obvious that he was over-matched. Can we work around it? Yes, but it is much less than an ideal situation and doesn't bode well for success in March.
Pumpkinhead
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Posters wishing for a grad transfer post player...that seems like a pipe dream. Grad transfers typically only go where they think they will probably start and get lots of minutes.

No grad transfer post player is going to look at our roster w/ Davis, Trocha, Williams, Miller and want to come to college Station.

A grad transfer PG will see an opportunity at A&M. Grad transfer bigs are going to go places where there is no Tyler Davis, Trocha etc.
tehmackdaddy
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Regardless of what grad transfer we get, he is going to be a rotational guy and jj is going to be running the show from day one with 25 minutes a game. Just embrace it.
Not until I have to.
tehmackdaddy
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Posters wishing for a grad transfer post player...that seems like a pipe dream. Grad transfers typically only go where they think they will probably start and get lots of minutes.

No grad transfer post player is going to look at our roster w/ Davis, Trocha, Williams, Miller and want to come to college Station.
Any transfer who can't beat out Miller for playing time shouldn't be considered anyway unless he is willing to accept that role I described as off-the-bench rotational big-man.

And any transfer who knows he isn't much more of an asset than Miller is just looking to get on a team that will do well in the conference and make the tournament. We have roster spots available and fit that bill.

The only *proven* legitimate post player is Davis. Trocha got better towards the end of the season, but was still coming off the bench, played for match-up purposes, and still needs to develop his post-game. We pretty much know Miller's ceiling and role, and have no idea if we'll be able to utilize Williams in year 1.
bobinator
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Not against quality opponents.

Caruso is considered to be a good ball handler, but when up against not just elite PG's like Ulis, but "true" PGs with a quick-twitch makeup in the lackluster conference that is the SEC it was obvious that he was over-matched. Can we work around it? Yes, but it is much less than an ideal situation and doesn't bode well for success in March.

That's more a size/athleticism issue than a position issue though. We obviously need quicker guards, you need a diversity of players to play your best in a diversity of situations.

In your example, having a quick guard at the two or three that could penetrate of the bounce, even if they weren't a great passer, would have helped. That was the one big weakness with last year's team is that we essentially had like 35 players between 6-3 and 6-7 and Caruso was the only one that could dribble very well.

But the true position thing is overrated. You can make up for not having a great assisting point guard if you've got a good assisting two or three and you can make up for a two that can't shoot if you have a one that can. You just have to know where your teams strengths are and make sure you have a flexible roster.
Pumpkinhead
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Posters wishing for a grad transfer post player...that seems like a pipe dream. Grad transfers typically only go where they think they will probably start and get lots of minutes.

No grad transfer post player is going to look at our roster w/ Davis, Trocha, Williams, Miller and want to come to college Station.
Any transfer who can't beat out Miller for playing time shouldn't be considered anyway unless he is willing to accept that role I described as off-the-bench rotational big-man.

And any transfer who knows he isn't much more of an asset than Miller is just looking to get on a team that will do well in the conference and make the tournament. We have roster spots available and fit that bill.

The only *proven* legitimate post player is Davis. Trocha got better towards the end of the season, but was still coming off the bench, played for match-up purposes, and still needs to develop his post-game. We pretty much know Miller's ceiling and role, and have no idea if we'll be able to utilize Williams in year 1.
Look, you are almost certainly not going to get a grad transfer post player of much value who will be interested. Our front court roster looks much more 'crowded' than many other places. Grad transfer's top priority is typically playing time, playing time, playing time.

The lead guard situation with just a freshman Caldwell coming in is a much easier sell, and that is why you have been seeing some activity on the grad transfer front in that regard (e.g., Neal visiting, making it on that kid from Michigan's list, etc.)

What you can probably expect is what Logan has been saying: the spanish kid Eric Vila who who seems to be a 6'9" face up perimeter guy and maybe a normal transfer post player who will sit out next season. And they no doubt are hunting hard for a grad transfer lead guard.
wacarnolds
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Posters wishing for a grad transfer post player...that seems like a pipe dream. Grad transfers typically only go where they think they will probably start and get lots of minutes.

No grad transfer post player is going to look at our roster w/ Davis, Trocha, Williams, Miller and want to come to college Station.

A grad transfer PG will see an opportunity at A&M. Grad transfer bigs are going to go places where there is no Tyler Davis, Trocha etc.
According to ESPN, there are 28 graduate transfers 6'-7" or taller still looking for a new home.



There could be a few guys that don't expect a starting position handed to them (although not ruled out). But I do agree that our roster might not be the most inviting.
tehmackdaddy
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quote:
quote:
quote:
Posters wishing for a grad transfer post player...that seems like a pipe dream. Grad transfers typically only go where they think they will probably start and get lots of minutes.

No grad transfer post player is going to look at our roster w/ Davis, Trocha, Williams, Miller and want to come to college Station.
Any transfer who can't beat out Miller for playing time shouldn't be considered anyway unless he is willing to accept that role I described as off-the-bench rotational big-man.

And any transfer who knows he isn't much more of an asset than Miller is just looking to get on a team that will do well in the conference and make the tournament. We have roster spots available and fit that bill.

The only *proven* legitimate post player is Davis. Trocha got better towards the end of the season, but was still coming off the bench, played for match-up purposes, and still needs to develop his post-game. We pretty much know Miller's ceiling and role, and have no idea if we'll be able to utilize Williams in year 1.
Look, you are almost certainly not going to get a grad transfer post player of much value who will be interested. Our front court roster looks much more 'crowded' than many other places. Grad transfer's top priority is typically playing time, playing time, playing time.

The lead guard situation with just a freshman Caldwell coming in is a much easier sell, and that is why you have been seeing some activity on the grad transfer front in that regard (e.g., Neal visiting, making it on that kid from Michigan's list, etc.)

What you can probably expect is what Logan has been saying: the spanish kid Eric Vila who who seems to be a 6'9" face up perimeter guy and maybe a normal transfer post player who will sit out next season. And they no doubt are hunting hard for a grad transfer lead guard.
I am not disagreeing with that assessment, I am merely pointing out what the roster lacks most in order of relatively realistic need.

We have several guys who are swingmen/shooters. We lack experience at PG and could use another big body in the paint (not trying to turn tall, thin, underclassmen swing-players into what they aren't).
wacarnolds
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Quickly browsing their stats, some of guys that look like more than warm bodies:

Lew Evans
LG Gill
Merrill Golden
Theo Johnson
Christian Jones (from Dallas)
Anthony Livingston
Laron Smith
Kale Abrahamson
Norville Carey
Ben Carter
Darion Clark

Izundu looks meh, but he's from Houston. Nick Banyard is from Flower Mound.
halfastros81
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Unless the film I saw was a bad data point Vila will be of no help next yr
GE
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Unless the film I saw was a bad data point Vila will be of no help next yr
At best he's a three point specialist who is a defensive liability. At worst he doesn't play at all
txag72
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You can pick up a player of that quality any time.
The clock is ticking. I don't want to see Gilder and Caldwell as our only PG options next year.
txag72
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I have top 4 in the SEC and top 35 nationally expectations.
I have those hopes, but I can't have those expectations until the roster is filled out. Sophomore slumps are common, and although I have no concern about that for Davis and Gilder, I just have a hard time expecting 25 productive minutes from Hogg yet. He's apt to be hot or cold and a defensive question mark. Trocha can be a solid player, but I don't think anyone is ready to pick him all SEC. That leaves a LOT of basketball open for a bunch of newcomers, especially PG.
Method Man
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Unless the film I saw was a bad data point Vila will be of no help next yr
At best he's a three point specialist who is a defensive liability. At worst he doesn't play at all


He's not going to be as good as a junior Peyton Allen would've been.
GE
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Unless the film I saw was a bad data point Vila will be of no help next yr
At best he's a three point specialist who is a defensive liability. At worst he doesn't play at all
He's not going to be as good as a junior Peyton Allen would've been.
Agreed. I think both Allen and Fitzgerald had the potential to provide decent minutes off the bench this upcoming season as a junior and senior.
GE
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I just think the "true" thing is overrated. For that matter positions are kind of overrated in college basketball.
Edit: that emoticon was not intended - typing on the phone

I follow in that the overall skill set of the team as a whole is more important, but the right skill set for certain positions does matter.

If your point guard is a true point guard that can distribute and read defenses well rather than just take care of the ball and dribble it up the floor, the play setup and initial pass go more smoothly. In transition he's better equipped to find the right guy and get the ball there.

In the half court offense (at least in ours) the first pass is almost always to either the 2 or 3. If those guys are shooters like the prototypical small forward and shooting guard are, the defense is immediately stretched on that first pass. This is in direct contrast to when Green or even Caruso caught the first pass.

When your 4 has the size and game to post up lowbut also the ability to step outside and stretch the defense with the shot, that spreads the floor and opens up opportunities for the rest of the team.

When your 5 has a true low post game, he's going to draw double teams creating advantages. Contrast that to someone like Loubeau who was a good player for us but didn't have that and didn't get double teamed very often.

Like I said initially, completely agree that the overall combined skill set of the players on the floor is of paramount importance, but there are advantages to be gained when each player has the prototypical skills for his position.
 
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