This is a tough one and all you Houston fans please try to not be too biased. Here is the rundown....

As a player:
Both are unique and special players, however, there is no one like Yao in the NBA and a dominant center can wreck havoc on just about every team. Especially one with Yao's skill set. Lebron is amazing and has superior ability but there are guys that are similar to him in terms of being a well-balanced all-around threat (aka Kobe Bryant, Grant Hill, etc.) What I am saying is that even though Lebron is special, Yao is the more one of a kind player. ADVANTAGE: Yao

Marketability:
Think this is an easy one??? Think again. We all see how crazy America is about Lebron already, but don't forget Yao has the entire country of China on board with him. Similar to Ichrio with the Mariners and Hideki Matsui, Yao's marketing impact is at least as great as Lebron's and arguably better on a global scale!!! However, Lebron will be the face of the NBA if David Stern has anything to do with it. ADVANTAGE: Too close to call

I guess what I am getting at is if they would have been in the same draft (and Cleveland wouldn't have had the top pick, since Lebron is from Ohio) who do you think most GMs would have taken #1????

At the end of the day, though I am not a big Rockets fan and was wowed by Lebron last night, I think you have to take Yao!!!


"When in an argument with another person, be the bigger man.......just tell them if they dont shut up then you will beat them severely because you are bigger than they are."
- Charlie Matzig

i think that's a pretty accurate breakdown. of course, it's a little easier to choose yao now that we've seen him play against nba players for a full season.

if we had to pretend as though we had never seen either one compete against nba caliber talent, i think it becomes a much tougher call. i've been a rocket fan for years and i can't tell you how nervous i was that yao wasn't going to be able to hack it in the nba. and nobody wants to pull a sam bowie over michael jordan blunder again.

Depends who had the pick.

If Houston had it, I bet they pick Yao again, since they already have Francis.

IF SA had the pick, they would probably take LeBron because they already have Duncan.

Dallas - Yao obviously

Cleveland - tossup, they have more needs than solutions.

New Orleans - Yao, sinc they have Baron tied up

Depends on the team. Portland took Bowie over Jordan, largely because they already had Clyde. No one questions Hakeem over Jordan.

mkt-ability isn't really a factor in which guy you take.
The rule is, when in doubt, take the big man. Great big men win titles, great 2 guards generally don't (mj is the exception to the rule).

Even MJ always had someone solid on the inside.

Rodman or Grant.
Longley sucked, but was a decent defender.

orion,

I respectfully disagree that marketability is not a factor in which guy you take. The NBA is a business which means making money. The best thing that ever happened to Cleveland was getting Lebron!!! Now all of their games are sold out this season, they are making a ton of money on Lebron stuff and they are on the map as a basketball hotspot. Other players will want to play with Lebron!!! He is the NBA's new poster child. Carmello, who is far more proven at this point, is not getting half the recognition that Lebron is getting and Darko is just learning right now. But guys like Yao and Lebron transcend the game, both on the court with their play and off the court with their marketability. I would argue that we have never seen two higher profile players than these two (except Michael Jordan). What a great debate that would have been had they been in the same draft. However, look at whoever gets the top pick next year....likely to be Pavel Podkolzine, the huge 7'5" center from Russia. He could be good but I guarantee you he isn't going to increase the revenues much of whichever team drafts him. Very limited marketability. I just think we have seen two unique number 1 picks the last two years.

I'm sorry, but you are flat out wrong. Take Dirk and Duncan for instance. Every GM in the league would take Duncan over more marketable talents like (pre rape accusation) Kobe, T-Mac, or Vince Carter. Same thing with Dirk. There are only maybe 3-4 guys in the league better than Dirk, but probably 2-3 dozen more marketable.
The only case you can make for picking LeBron over Yao is that before the draft some people thought Yao might be just another Shawn Bradley.

I agree you have to go with a big man first. It is freaking sick how good Duncan makes the rest of his team. Give me him over Kobe every time.

Now, Lebron might be more of a passer than any of the swingmen types we've seen in a while. He has a better feel for the game than Yao does at this point, and he is 4 years younger.

But, watching Yao tonight against the Nuggets (yes, I know it it's Denver), you realize that he should easily score 30 every game and shoot 55-60% from the field (tonight he was 6-8, and 7-8 from the line in 20 minutes.) The main question will be how aggresive he will be (he only grabbed 3 rebounds.) While most of America would probably disagree, I'd take Yao.



[This message has been edited by Gator03 (edited 10/31/2003 12:18a).]

[This message has been edited by Gator03 (edited 10/31/2003 12:19a).]

orion,

A guy like Duncan is the exception, not the rule. And he is very marketable just by being a nice guy. If you think there is any way in the world that Cleveland would have taken Carmello Anthony you are out of your mind. Or Darko for that matter. I am not saying that it is always a factor, but with a guy that has as much hype as Lebron, it is a HUGE factor!!! Cleveland knew that by taking him that they would instantly sell out every game this season and be on national tv 10+ times. No way that happens if they take Carmello. Dirk is my favorite player in the league and he too is a unique talent. All I am saying is that every once in a while a special player comes out and a team can't help but think of the financial impact of the pick. The last two years have certainly shown that.

Do you think for a second that Cleveland wouldn't have taken James?

Pre draft, most people were saying the Carmello was the better player and that they could make a case for him to go #1. What I am saying is that no team in their right mind can ignore the enormous impact that Yao or Lebron can have on a franchise. Tim Duncan's impact comes on the floor, and championship teams bring in revenue. Yao and Lebron are the face of the NBA.

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mkt-ability isn't really a factor in which guy you take.

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that is just flat out wrong. The Rockets are making a KILLING in Asia selling jerseys etc. with Yao. Having Yao also raised the stakes on naming rights for the Toyota Center.

while i agree that you wouldn't take a shlub just because he was marketable, saying mkt-ability isn't really a factor is just crazy. MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY

The problem with a player like LeBron is that after a couple years, he isnt selling out games like he did his rookie year. Vince Carter was like that too when he was dunking over everyone one.

ULtimately, the big guy that wins lots of games and takes you deep into the playoffs will make you more money.

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The Rockets are making a KILLING in Asia selling jerseys etc. with Yao

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No they arent. The NBA is. All jersey sales go into a pot along with TNT money and all other basketball revenue and is distributed back to teams and used to determine the salary cap.

BMX Bandit - excuse me for not putting it in a way you can understand. As GS explained, the NBA and NBAPA make the money off jersies. As for my marketing comment, the NBA is a smart company and will market all of its stars. My comment was a response to Flu's assertion that a team would take a more marketable 2 guard over a potential title winning big man. If marketing was truly the driving force behind the league (as BMX and Flu seem to naively think), then the draft lottery would have been rigged to get the chinaman in NY or Golden State. It also wouldn't have let a small mkt team like SA win the lottery 2 times over the past 15 years when franchise centers were the top pick.

flu - Duncan is not the exception. He proves the rule. Great big men win rings (duncan, shaq, hakeem, drob, etc), while star 2 guards get the endorsement money. Kobe (pre rape accusation) was much more marketed than Shaq, guys like Vince Carter and T-Mac are more hyped than Duncan. The reason for this is that 2 guards are what we all want to be deep down. Centers are just 7 footers who lumber around. 2 guards are graceful athletes who fly through the air and dunk, bomb threes, etc. 2 guards are usually around 6'2"-6'6". This is close to the ht of the avg american. We can relate to them. 7 ft centers are freaks of nature.

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If you think there is any way in the world that Cleveland would have taken Carmello Anthony you are out of your mind. Or Darko for that matter. I am not saying that it is always a factor, but with a guy that has as much hype as Lebron, it is a HUGE factor!!! Cleveland knew that by taking him that they would instantly sell out every game this season and be on national tv 10+ times. No way that happens if they take Carmello.Pre draft, most people were saying the Carmello was the better player and that they could make a case for him to go #1.

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your orig post was LBJ vs Yao, not LBJ vs Carmello. Don't try to change it now. Also, your statement that pre draft many people had mello as a better player than LBJ is flat out wrong. The thing about the LBJ hype is that instead of being manufactured by Nike, it was coming from the NBA coaches/scouts/GM's that know about basketball.

[This message has been edited by orion (edited 10/31/2003 9:05a).]

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He has a better feel for the game than Yao does at this point

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I'm not sure that we can say that right now. I don't think the Rockets really tried to utilize Yao last year as much as they should have. Maybe it's because he wasn't ready, or maybe it was because he had greedy teammates at the 1 and 2 and the offensive gameplan sucked. I don't know the answer. I know that they continued to play streetball with a potentially dominant player down low. I'm not sure that can be pinned on Yao as not having a better feel for the game though.

I don't know, it's still to early to call for both of them if you ask me.

[This message has been edited by Special Ed (edited 10/31/2003 10:41a).]

Lebron would go first. He has everything going for him.

Lebron would go first. He has everything going for him.

Everything other than being a center.

I actually think G-soup's first post was the most accurate on this issue.

SE,
I agree that the offensive gameplan was horrendous last year, pretty much iso for Steve or Cat 75% of the time. That's why good teams (Spurs, Mavs, etc.) ate the Rockets up. The amazing thing was that they still only finished 1 game out, simply because they had better players than most teams. I agree that Yao will flourish in VG's system, where he will get the ball more so he can get more shots and assists.

Lebron to me looks like he might have the best court vision of any 18 year old in NBA history. Of course, the NBA is full of over-rated swingmen, so I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Probably the closest to that situation happening was the year Hakeem and Jordan both came out. Houston took Hakeem first because they knew that high quality big men are harder to find than high quality guards. Ironically Sam Bowie went before Jordan in a stunner because Portland? already was stacked at the 2 in the biggest mistake ever made in a draft. In the end you could certainly say Jordan was the better choice but it is hard to critisize Houston for taking Hakeem since he won 2 rings for them and was such a dominant player. Jordan was the anomoly, the list of 2 guards with freakish talent that turn into just "good players" is very long, especially after they lose their hops typically around their 30th birthday. Jordan managed to stay in good enough shape to prolong his athleticism and he had a killer fadeaway jumper to go with an off the chart bball IQ. A quality big man though can usually be effective well into their mid 30's because they don't get smaller and typically they just get stronger.

In other words Yao would have been the pick. Yao will play in the NBA until he is pushing 40 and be at a high level. Lebron could easily flash and burn out before he is 30, actually statistically he probably will.

The year they took Dream, Houston had two #1 picks. #1, and #4. If Chicago doesn't take Jordan with the #3 pick, Houston would have got him, too. Instead, they got Rodney McCray... I can still dream...

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If marketing was truly the driving force behind the league (as BMX and Flu seem to naively think), then the draft lottery would have been rigged to get the chinaman in NY or Golden State

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Actually, Houston has a huge Asian population. Many people believe the lotto was rigged, so that they could get Yao because of this large Asian base.

Yao. Unless you have Michael Jordan on your team, you can't win without a big man.

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Actually, Houston has a huge Asian population. Many people believe the lotto was rigged, so that they could get Yao because of this large Asian base.

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nice revisionist history. Nobody pre draft lotto was predicting Yao to Houston. He was supposed to go to to either:
1) Golden State due to the large asian pop in Chinatown and the west coast's (relative) closeness to China.
or
2) New York to save the crappy Knicks and restore talent to the east coast mega mkt. The commish supposedly wanted the NY-LA finals ratings.



again, if the draft was rigged, podunk ass san antonio would not have won the DRob lottery, and Duncan would have gone to the Celtics.

[This message has been edited by orion (edited 10/31/2003 5:27p).]

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Nobody pre draft lotto was predicting Yao to Houston

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No one talked of Yao going to the Rockets because they had a snowball's chance of getting the first pick. GS finished with the worst record, and therefor had the best odds at Yao. I'm not saying the draft was rigged, just that a lot of people say the NBA did rig it because Houston has such a large Asian population (so large that voting ballots are now written in Vietnamese).

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I'm not saying the draft was rigged, just that a lot of people say the NBA did rig it because Houston has such a large Asian population (so large that voting ballots are now written in Vietnamese).

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those people are idiots. again, if the draft lotto was rigged, San Antonio would have never won the Robinson or Duncan draft rts.

Bingo - and Cleveland would have never won LeBron when he coulda gone to the Knicks.

Duncan would have gone to Boston.

All the NBA conspircy theories baffle me. Why would they let the Spurs beat the Lakers? A LA-NYC Finals would have had better ratings than an SA-NYC one.

not to beat a dead horse, but suggesting that Houston was an attractive city for the NBA to send Yao because it "has a large Asian population" is stupid. The places NBA conspiracy theorists wanted to send Yao were Golden State, or New York.
California has 4 million of the 10 million asians living in the US, New York has 1 million. Texas has around 500,000. http://www.infoplease.com/spot/chinatowns1.html