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1. Texas A&M will make the Elite Eight. (Or: Duke won't make the Final Four.) Don't get me wrong. Duke has the easiest path to the Final Four of any of the No. 1 seeds. The Blue Devils are a very impressive team on the court and on paper -- they're Ken Pomeroy's top adjusted efficiency team in the country for a reason. Duke should make the Final Four. But if there is an upset candidate before No. 3-seed Baylor in the South region, it's Texas A&M. The Aggies are a strong defensive team, ranked No. 23 in adjusted efficiency. Mark Turgeon has a pair of experienced tournament players in Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis, both of whom have been to four NCAA tournaments. And the Aggies have the benefit of not relying on jump shooting to get themselves points. Rather, the Aggies rely on their ability to get to the free throw line, which they do at the sixth-highest rate in the country. This is the sort of offensive game plan that should serve them well against anybody, even Duke.

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http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/7107/bracket-babble-five-bold-predictions

***BTW, do yourself a favor and don't read past prediction #1. Trust me.***

[This message has been edited by Stump02 (edited 3/15/2010 10:43p).]

Hmmm yeeaaaa.... I'm just not so sure about that.

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Rather, the Aggies rely on their ability to get to the free throw line, which they do at the sixth-highest rate in the country.

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That statistic is muted to a huge degree by our inability to make enough of those FTs. 60%ish FT shooting is a liability. It opens us up as vulvnerable to a "hack-a-Shaq" defensive style if a game is close late.

In our guys' defense, we have been shooting at a 70+ percentage of late. Our FT shooting has improved.

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***BTW, do yourself a favor and don't read past prediction #1. Trust me.***

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Gawddamnit!! If you hadn't said anything, I never woulda clicked!

I think it's difficult to argue that we are a good FT shooting team and that disease is pretty well spread around most of the team. A PG that shoots 60% from the line is ... well ... unusual. I'd hack Dash, Loubeau and Davis big time if the game was close and I had some guys who could take the fouls. I'd trade 2's for 1's and missing the front end of a 1-1 is huge at that juncture in a tight game.

BTW, we have shot better. Don't know if it's something we can hang our hat on, or the right guys are taking the shots or if it's the law of averages coming to us. But if I were the opposing coach, I'd probably take the gamble with those guys.

I just have no earthly idea what to make of the South region. You can make a convincing sounding argument for about 6 teams to make a run to the Elite 8 at least.

Well we have shot threes a lot better too our last ten games or so...i dont know if thats law of averages, hot streak, or what.

Forget about the matchup and look strictly at Duke's recent tournament history: Duke has been a number 1 seed 9 out the last 13 years. One championship, one additional finals loss, another final four, and another regional final. The rest are sweet 16 finishes at best. That's great results but a bit of underachivement in there.

Plus, the last 5 times they've won the ACC tournament, they've lost in the sweet 16 round!

I've picked Duke to go out of the last 5 Sweet 16s (provided I had them that far), and I've been right. This year's team doesn't seem to have much that last year's team, and the ones in '05 and '06, didn't. Picking A&M -- or whoever Duke might play in the 3rd round -- over Duke is NOT a bad bet -- at least not based on recent history.

Of the 4 number ones to have to face in the Sweet 16, Duke would be my choice. Houston is a very nice bonus.