it's not like we've EVER done that before...oh.....oops....

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Wed, Feb 08 Colorado (25) * College Station, Texas W 61-58
Sat, Feb 11 Oklahoma State * College Station, Texas W 46-44
Sat, Feb 18 @ Baylor * Waco, Texas W 64-60
Tue, Feb 21 @ Missouri * Columbia, Mo. W 54-51
Sat, Feb 25 Nebraska * College Station, Texas W 66-55
Wed, Mar 01 Texas (6) * College Station, Texas W 46-43
Sat, Mar 04 @ Texas Tech * Lubbock, Texas W 75-59

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http://www.aggieathletics.com/teamstats.php?SID=MBB&YOS=2006

See? Backing up a claim with historical facts!

I like it.

Thank you. I was getting tired of feeling like I needed to apologize for thinking we could pull it off.

Notice the PPG for our opponents? Less than 55 ppg in that stretch. That is exactly what we need here. A death-grip defensive effort to get on a roll heading into the tourney.

1. We won 5 games by 4 points or less
2. Our stretch ahead is harder IMO.

Still possible for us to run the table, but extremely unlikely.

I hope it happens...but the schedule is more difficult this time.

4 games down the stretch that we could possibly lose, but the guys are capable of winning all 4 of them as well.

it's possible for the guys to run the table but it is a VERY tough task.


can't say i'm not getting a little bit excited thinking about the possibilities

Obviously, anything is possible.

But it is not realistic.

Ok, think about it.

OSU at home - if we don't look past it, we should be ok.

t.u. on the road - obviously the table turner. We pull that one off, then there is no excuse to losing to KU at home.

BU and OU will be toss ups depending on how demoralized either team will be by the time we play them. But if have pressure on us to win, then we'll pull it out (see road game at OSU after our 3 game skid)

Nebraska - see OSU home game

KU - again, if we still only have 3 losses coming into this one, and we are at Reed. . .there would be no excuses.

It all starts on Saturday and Monday will be critical.

Two top 25 teams left?

06 check
08 check

A top ten team at home near the end of the season

06 check
08 check

A road game against baylor, a home game against nebraska, a home game against osu

06 check
08 check

Pretty close

06 texas > 08 kansas?
I think probably so.

Tucker, Buckman, Aldridge, Gibson, Paulino, Abrams. That was a pretty stout lineup

Are we more talented than in 06?

Acie, Sophomore DKirk, Fish Josh, Sophomore Joe, Pompey, Chris Walker, and First year AK.

Yea, def more talented.

I think we can do it

anything is possible, we just have to show up and play like we have been.

"They don't give grades to fathers but if your daughter is a stripper, you've failed!"

@tu
@OU
ku
@BU

Is a extremely tough stretch any way you slice it. I'd be pleased with a 2-2 split of these + taking care of business with neb/osu..

i think most will agree that we have played very few games at the level we're capable of...coaching brainfarts, MIA players, or both. just got a good feeling that Turge and team will make a great end-of-season run at now bringing their best one. game. at. a. time.

game scheme, player focus, gameday adjustments = great shot at winning out.

jmho

that was a 7-0 or 8-0 run.

To win out, we'd have to go on a 12-0 run, something we've never done in conference play.

And we have to beat tu at home and twice in one year, I don't even know how long it's been since we did that, probably 20+ years.

And we have to beat KU two years in a row, something I imagine we have never done in the history of our basketball program.

But hey, it could happen and I hope it does!

quote:

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To win out, we'd have to go on a 12-0 run, something we've never done in conference play.

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i see what you did, but nope, to make that statement, today would have to be Jan 26. forget about the past 5 games. thats history.

7 games remaining.

one game at a time.

BTHO okielite

quote:

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see what you did, but nope, to make that statement, today would have to be Jan 26. forget about the past 5 games. thats history.

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I wished it worked that way, but if you are making odds on it, then it doesn't.

quote:

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i see what you did, but nope, to make that statement, today would have to be Jan 26. forget about the past 5 games. thats history.

7 games remaining.

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Of course the original poster did a similar trick in including the last 7 games, instead of merely the last 6 that he's comparing to. The reason he chose 7 and not simply 6 or the last 8 is obvious.

i AM the original poster and i have no idea what you just said.

*******************************************************

Actually, if you're making odds on it, it does work exactly that way. The whole idea of probability is that past results don't affect the likelihood of future events. Our odds of winning each upcoming game are not negatively affected by the fact that we've won 5 previous games, in terms of raw probability.

Obviously this is not raw probability -- if nothing else there are psychological factors involved here. But in terms of odds-making and probability the odds of us winning the next 7 games wouldn't be significantly different if we'd lost against Mizzou, aside from 1) we'd clearly be not as good a team and 2) psychological issues.

Long streaks are uncommon simply because each game has a decent chance of a loss, not because each win somehow increases the chance of a loss in the next game.

Putting this into numbers, Ken Pomeroy's system would give us a 3.47% chance of winning out. Our lowest chance of winning any particular game is 34%. It's the cumulative chance of losing that affects things. If we beat OSU, the chances go to 3.78%, simply because you've removed one 8% chance of losing.

were you the same guys that mailed in our ncaa tourney hopes 2 years ago?

if we pull it off you get to celebrate with us, if we don't you get to claim you were right all along, good deal for you huh?

so the chances of flipping heads 7 times in a row are decreased if you had just flipped 5 in row rather than 2?

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE GAME OF BASKETBALL GENIUS, YOU CAN'T MEASURE PROBABILITY IN BASKETBALL

1. KU
2. Texas in Atx

quote:

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i AM the original poster and i have no idea what you just said.

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No you know, you just don't know that you know

You picked the last 7 games to compare to now instead of the last 6, even though we only have 6 games left.


Why would you do that? Hmm, maybe because we won the last 7??? But you didn't pick the last 8 games as the arbitrary last set to compare to because we lost that one (interestingly enough the 8th last game was at tu, an identical game that we have ahead).

[This message has been edited by Aston04 (edited 2/14/2008 12:38a).]

88aginRR,

I really do think that is the most intelligent thing i have ever read on TexAgs. Really. Blue star for you.

mhc06,

you are either a sip troll

AND / OR

in need of some serious anger mgmt. therapy.

go away.

make me

i ran sagarin's predictor and assumed every point in the spread was worth 3% points. For example, a 3 point favorite has a 59% chance of winning.

By that logic, we only have a 2% chance. Lets hope I'm wrong and pomeroy is right.

If it happens, it would be awesome, because we would be looking at a 2 seed, and maybe a 1 seed with a b12 tourney win or 2.

quote:

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it all starts Saturday

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Actually it all started 5 games ago.

AginRR: "Actually, if you're making odds on it, it does work exactly that way. The whole idea of probability is that past results don't affect the likelihood of future events. Our odds of winning each upcoming game are not negatively affected by the fact that we've won 5 previous games, in terms of raw probability"

I was waiting for the mutually exclusive argument. Even tho this is Basketball, its fun to look at things statistically, which mean nothing.

We shall see on Monday. If we can get that one than we can win any of the remaining games.

But that one game is a biggy.

quote:

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You picked the last 7 games to compare to now instead of the last 6, even though we only have 6 games left.

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um...we have 7 games left, which is why i said we've done it before...that is, win out with 7 games left.

so, still don't know what you're talking about.

yea that was stupid

Yeah I'll admit when I'm wrong- and I am. We do have 7 games left. Forgot about the itt tech home game. Nevermind.

[This message has been edited by Aston04 (edited 2/14/2008 9:26a).]