So if you go over to F16 there are some pretty bad videos and of course nashing if teeth by other texags posters calling for the utter destruction of Palestine. The U.S. has sent a carrier strike group to the med, I'm sure there are some subs lurking nearby as well.

My question to current or former service members, what are the repercussions of Israeli operations to remove the threat entirely, and the rest of the Arab world coming down on them? It would appear there is no easy answer, and while I appreciate a nation fighting back, at what point does the U.S. get sucked into this thing? Israel is not to be toyed with in my opinion and this will get much worse before it gets better.

As mentioned above, we're tied in well to Israel. And because Hamas is a terrorist organization, that lets us side with Israel pretty easily and provide them with aid in numerous ways.

To answer your questions from the op, I don't think the rest of the Arab world will step in other than maybe to offer humanitarian aid and make statements trying to end the killing.

I also don't think the US gets involved other than doing the same on Israels side. The carrier group is there to keep other countries out of the conflict. We are telling Lebanon and Iran to keep their uniformed troops out of this.

Yep, and not to mention we have MEUs floating the waters nearby and always on standby.

I don't think we will get involved via troops. Aid and advising is all the IDF needs. This spat happens all the time over there, so we don't need to set the precedent that each time they start bombing each other, the US needs to step in.

To backstop AT's post, I worked FMS for the AFSAT Sq as a training program manager. First as Lt Col for Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, then as a GS for Saudi Arabia with interfaces with Jordan. I worked closely with a lot of other PMs in the unit who worked the ME.....to include Israel.

The universal conclusion was that Arab armed forces sucked hard. And now that most are Western equipped, we also have a choke hold their weapons/munitions pipeline. Poor leadership, vast corruption, marginal training, appearances are more important than production, and a tremendous lack of usable human capital to employ the modern weapons they have been buying.

Thanks for posting that information. Validates my assumptions at a more strategic and macro level. But just rolling around to various checkpoints throughout the Sinai peninsula, it's not hard to imagine why Egyptian Army gets rolled up and ambushed by ISIS SINAI all the time. They look male nourished, AK47s, lazy security posture and armor is on the ground.

So at a tactical level, they look like hot garbage.

Yeah, I'm staying off F16 because I know the vitriol that gets posted there and it doesn't surprise me they're advocating for genocide.

I have no clue what Hamas was thinking. My suspicion is that they were tired of being irrelevant, and they saw no way forward. The West Bank under the PLO is actually somewhat improving, and not living under horrible conditions. But Gaza is just going backwards, the Saudis were getting ready to possibly establish relations with Israel, and I think the UAE already has. This was likely an attempt to both sabotage that, and get some sort of relevance, as well as some possible bargaining power by taking hostages.

That being said, they screwed up big time. The fact that they killed so many civilians that puts this on a scale greater than 9/11 is going to mean hardcore revenge by the Israelis. I fully expect a prolonged sweep through Gaza by the Israelis.

I do feel bad for the average Palestinian in Gaza. Israel basically told them to leave their homes and collect in certain safe areas because of the massive bombing that's going to come/already has started. That place is already a pile of rubble with a population density of over 2 million in roughly 150 sq miles. There aren't many places to hide. They already have a crumbling infrastructure that is going to be turned into dust. And the whole cycle will just continue.

I would be shocked if we launched any combat operations into the area. I suspect we provide just logistical and intel support. As mentioned above, our presence will be to primarily keep other players from acting up. I suspect the Syrians are still rebuilding from years of war and wouldn't want to get involved. Lebanon itself won't do anything, but Hizbullah might try something. And I doubt any other player in the region will do anything.

Honestly, I think the Israelis got complacent. They built a barrier, and they had their Iron Dome that had been functioning so well. They never assumed the Iron Dome could be overwhelmed like it was, or that such an operation could occur without them getting wind of it somehow.

And yeah, Arabs are generally quite lazy people. Too much nepotism and not enough meritocracy has largely left their institutions, not just military, dysfunctional.

Based on my experience, and maybe I'm showing my western and religious bias, when I had dinner and worked with the Christian Egyptians vs the Officers who practiced Islam, it was a big difference and not as "in sha allah time"…..

My father has been in Saudi Arabia for quite sometime now…..he will tell you the same thing.

Aggie Therapist said:

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Based on my experience, and maybe I'm showing my western and religious bias, when I had dinner and worked with the Christian Egyptians vs the Officers who practiced Islam, it was a big difference and not as "in sha allah time"…..

My father has been in Saudi Arabia for quite sometime now…..he will tell you the same thing.

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I don't think it's a religious thing, persay. Though I suspect there is more nepotism among Arab Muslims as opposed to Arab Christians. As such I suspect the non-Muslim Arabs probably have to work harder than the Muslim arabs, to come up in the armed forces, or elsewhere. Even among Muslims, they still have a tribalistic culture where you give preference to someone who may be from your tribe from 1000 years ago. But I could be wrong.

Also, the YouTube channel Task & Purpose has a pretty good recap of kinda just the military aspect of the conflict and where it might go.

That's true. Throw in the tribal mindset and it really makes a huge difference. I probably need to reflect more on what I studied about the Middle East and my lived experience. I will say I still think religion makes a difference.

And those dudes are going to war for religious purposes for the rest of humankind

Not to turn this discussion into theology, but I remember a friend of mine (USMC combat vet) cool guy, great wife and still a hard sob. He told me that thus particular portion if the world, in addition to all the worldly reasons each of you have stated, will always be in conflict it's a biblical issue that has roots beyond many nations who themselves are involved in the issue today.

I believe him, everything you guys have said backs that up, and it's as if no matter who tries or what country lends support it never works, almost like it's been ordained that this will persist. These poor people, they are being pushed by forces beyond their control, not to mention every IDF soldier faced with a decision to end a threat or be ended themselves, it's an absolute nightmare.

The common theme in war I find is this, after millions of rounds are expended, machines built and destroyed, lives irrepreably damaged or too infirmed to see the fruits of their service, the world just goes on. Of course, that's from the comfort of my bed, safe (and so thankful) for the iron monster that surrounds me.

Not sure how credible the source is. But I expected mostly airstrikes from Israel.

The ground operation brings this to a whole new level.

More civilian casualties, accepted IDF losses, war crimes likely to occur, IDF occupation, etc


I saw some footage of Israeli HETS transporting tanks as well.

I think Biden is going to do exactly what Putin demanded that he do and stay out of it and let Israel do what they want. Of course, Putin meant it as a threat against US involvement directly, but I think the real threat is Israel acting without any handcuffs on them from the western governments.

Let's watch this one from the sidelines

AgLA06 said:

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Aggie Therapist said:

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Let's watch this one from the sidelines

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I struggle with this thinking as this sticking our head into the sand got us WW2. Many also called for it in Ukraine.

I don't see Israel needing our troops. Even Special forces. What they would need is support (info, equipment, arms). Given US citizens were killed and held hostage, I don't think "staying out of it" is truly an option. I wouldn't want it to be if it was my family that had this happen in an allied nation.

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I misspoke. I meant on the ground. I know we will offer advisors and military equipment.

Now that I saw a headline with Americans being held hostage by hamas, I can see guys on compound training for extraction.

Interesting thoughts. Regarding Iranian involvement, however it would be impressive if they planned it. Because, without a direct connection, they would've had to rely on a lot of electronic communication. And I'm sure there are more Israeli spies in Iran than there are in Gaza - as evidenced by lots of sabotage and such. For them to have planned this with Hamas over such a far distance without the use of electronic means, would truly be impressive. And if done with electronic means, for it to not get intercepted in any way by Israel would be extremely embarrassing for Israeli intelligence, or Iran has new encryption or something that no one has cracked yet.

Another thought, regarding resupply of Israel. I remember there being a thread a few months ago about how supplying Ukraine was depleting our munition stockpiles. Granted we will probably be resupplying Israel with different things than we will be supplying Ukraine with, does this potential drain on our munitions from two wars put us at any strategic disadvantage in the greater world stage? Or does the military industrial complex just get to raise prices and up the manufacturing capacity they probably already have?

They've literally killed Iranian advisors and Hams admitted Iran planned, funded, and armed it.

AgLA06 said:

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They've literally killed Iranian advisors and admitted Iran planned, funded, and armed it.

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Who admitted that? Hamas? I must have missed it.

Would be hard to get Iranian advisors into Gaza, as it's heavily blockaded. Would need to sneak in through Egypt, which would pose its own difficulties.

CT'97 said:

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I think Biden is going to do exactly what Putin demanded that he do and stay out of it and let Israel do what they want. Of course, Putin meant it as a threat against US involvement directly, but I think the real threat is Israel acting without any handcuffs on them from the western governments.

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why is this "the real threat?"

I'm quite familiar with Rafah Crossing Gate as we used it daily/weekly to transport US rations and supply in and out of Egypt. The Egyptian Officers and Customs Officials made life difficult and would check every package or box because they always thought we were bringing in equipment to spy on them.

But now we are talking about a secret military movement of passing Iranian Soldiers/Advisers through an Egyptian controlled gate (Israel left this crossing after they left that region so it's Egyptian run now) and I highly doubt that Egypt would allow that to happen at the expense of IDF lives.


I do wonder what there doing about civilian from Gaza fleeing through that border crossing into Egypt. Those towns in the northern Sinai are pretty bad to and prone to terrorists attacks and VBIEDs.

Sticky situation going on.

Here's a detailed look at what Israel will be facing in Gaza. Hamas has spent years digging in and preparing for this.

GAZA METRO

74OA said:

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Here's a detailed look at what Israel will be facing in Gaza. Hamas has spent years digging in and preparing for this.

GAZA METRO

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Funny isn't the right word. But after cursing Russia laying waste to every town and city in Ukraine, that's exactly what I'd recommend Israel to do. Otherwise don't even go in. Because that's probably the only way to neutralize the underground fortifications without losing their entire army.

Hamas has a dope multimedia team. Not so much OPSEC but the beat was on point.

#Hamas Terrorists showed an Underground Storage for rockets.
These tunnels run deep underground so that Israeli Airstrikes cannot reach them. Launches are made from here. pic.twitter.com/t0RaavQcHw

— RoINTEL (@RoINTEL) October 10, 2023

Massive CIV CAS incoming with this direct assault on the ground. But I agree, if you want to flush out HAMAS intel, limit war fighting functions, capture leaders and ammo from the underground networks, you'll have to be right above it.

Even as an Infantry Officer, this wont be fun to watch for me.