Asking those who study tactical strategy it seems to me the Russians are orchestrating a Cold War military strategy against the Ukrainian army. They do not seem to control airspace and have a desire to get entangled in an urban conflict.
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Putins Strategy
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Last: 2 yr ago by RedAnimal12
This is unofficial but is fairly close approximation found on several websites:
Total combat losses by Russian occupying forces from 24 Feb to 15 Mar (approximation): 13500+ troops, 404 tanks, 1279 armored vehicles, 150 artillery systems, 64 rocket systems, 36 anti-air systems, 81 airplanes, 95 helicopters, 640 military auto vehicles, 3 military boats, 60 fuel tanks, 9 tactical UAVs. - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine \
Whatever strategy Putin wanted to employ will probably work but no army can lose that much in 3 weeks and continue.
Total combat losses by Russian occupying forces from 24 Feb to 15 Mar (approximation): 13500+ troops, 404 tanks, 1279 armored vehicles, 150 artillery systems, 64 rocket systems, 36 anti-air systems, 81 airplanes, 95 helicopters, 640 military auto vehicles, 3 military boats, 60 fuel tanks, 9 tactical UAVs. - General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine \
Whatever strategy Putin wanted to employ will probably work but no army can lose that much in 3 weeks and continue.
There is no strategy. This is missing all the aspects of a strategically planned invasion.
This does a decent job of explaining what's going on.
Putin's Killing Machine That Isn't Working
This does a decent job of explaining what's going on.
Putin's Killing Machine That Isn't Working
Texas A&M - 148 years of tradition, unimpeded by progress.
This is the kind of thing you would expect from a dictator in a small failed state. Not a nation state with an intelligence service and a trained military. All I can think is that he has insulated himself so far from anybody who would give him real advise that all he's getting is yes men telling him whatever he wants to hear.
I think he's scared of a coup from his own military and has allowed them to be picked apart by organized crime and corruption to keep them weak.
I think he's scared of a coup from his own military and has allowed them to be picked apart by organized crime and corruption to keep them weak.
Texas A&M - 148 years of tradition, unimpeded by progress.
Based on the first few days of the invasion, I have a feeling the Russians were going for a "shock and awe" like we did in Iraq. They went heavy with a show of rockets, artillery, helicopters, jets, tanks, paratroopers, etc. Based off the fact that Putin kept a significant chunk of his military inside Russia, I suspect they didn't think it would be this long of a fight.
Then, as has happened to many armies before, they both outran their supply lines and began dealing with an insurgency. The fact that the insurgency had real weapons, also took them by surprise. Now, their poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly supplied army, is relying on shear numbers and force to make any progress.
Supposedly the Russians are also not employing their best weapons as they're afraid it'll fall into western hands. Not sure how much of a difference it would make.
At this point, I'm curious what Putin's endgame is going to be. I'm sure they can eventually take Kyiv if they're willing to tolerate the pain.
Then, as has happened to many armies before, they both outran their supply lines and began dealing with an insurgency. The fact that the insurgency had real weapons, also took them by surprise. Now, their poorly trained, poorly equipped, and poorly supplied army, is relying on shear numbers and force to make any progress.
Supposedly the Russians are also not employing their best weapons as they're afraid it'll fall into western hands. Not sure how much of a difference it would make.
At this point, I'm curious what Putin's endgame is going to be. I'm sure they can eventually take Kyiv if they're willing to tolerate the pain.
I have zero knowledge or background here, but any chance he was reserving his more experienced troops and better equipment for an inevitable battle with Nato?
He certainly held back some of his troops, about 50% of his combat power.
He didn't hold back top troops. There is graphic evidence of the 4th Guards Army, one of their top and most historic units, T-90 tanks and BMP's destroyed in fighting around Kharkyiv. Their VDV(AIrborne) troops are all contract and supposedly top of the line and they are the one's stalled up north of Kyiv and have battled back and forth over Holstemel airport with a Ukrainian National Guard unit.
He didn't hold back top troops. There is graphic evidence of the 4th Guards Army, one of their top and most historic units, T-90 tanks and BMP's destroyed in fighting around Kharkyiv. Their VDV(AIrborne) troops are all contract and supposedly top of the line and they are the one's stalled up north of Kyiv and have battled back and forth over Holstemel airport with a Ukrainian National Guard unit.
Texas A&M - 148 years of tradition, unimpeded by progress.
How are those losses remotely possible? In an age where there is video of everything, there is very little evidence of any such losses. We lost less than 2000 troops in the entire Afghan war. Seems like western media propaganda unhinged.
There's been tons of video media of those losses for weeks now. Just wander over to the politics board and scroll thru the Ukraine "tactical and strategic updates" thread which is replete with examples. But, anyway, divide those numbers in half and it's still staggering for just a few weeks of combat.RAB87 said:
How are those losses remotely possible? In an age where there is video of everything, there is very little evidence of any such losses. We lost less than 2000 troops in the entire Afghan war. Seems like western media propaganda unhinged.
74OA said:There's been tons of video media of those losses for weeks now. Just wander over to the politics board and scroll thru the Ukraine "tactical and strategic updates" thread which is replete with examples. But, anyway, divide those numbers in half and it's still staggering for just a few weeks of combat.RAB87 said:
How are those losses remotely possible? In an age where there is video of everything, there is very little evidence of any such losses. We lost less than 2000 troops in the entire Afghan war. Seems like western media propaganda unhinged.
You don't see the volume or quality of videos of combat losses on the news networks because their reporters aren't in the combat zone. It's really dangerous there which means that none of the recognized names and faces want to go there to get an on-site video. All the best reporting is being done by locals who are in the middle of it without a choice. There is an incredible amount of visually verified destroyed Russian equipment being tracked independently by Twitter accounts such as @oryxspioenkop.
There is no place in Ukraine like the balcony of the Al Rasheed hotel in Baghdad where "journalists" took turns putting on body armor and a helmet reporting with "shock & awe" in the background because they knew that there was a giant NFA around their location. Isn't it strange that journalists have no such trust and sense of safety around Russian army.
I also have my doubts on the Russian losses posted above. That being said, even if their losses are much less, it's still an unsustainable path they're on.
But I think Putin is quite headstrong. I believe Zelenski offered to negotiate recently. Putin would be wise to take him up on that offer instead of continuing. I mean, eventually I think the Russians will take Ukraine. But they'll pay a heavy toll militarily, and economically.
But I think Putin is quite headstrong. I believe Zelenski offered to negotiate recently. Putin would be wise to take him up on that offer instead of continuing. I mean, eventually I think the Russians will take Ukraine. But they'll pay a heavy toll militarily, and economically.
It's certainly a different war with different risks for the media, but watching major network news since this thing kicked off, I've seen name US journalists in the combat zone--particularly Kiev--since the beginning and the reporting has been at least as "on-scene" as the hotel balcony in Baghdad, imo.Ulysses90 said:74OA said:There's been tons of video media of those losses for weeks now. Just wander over to the politics board and scroll thru the Ukraine "tactical and strategic updates" thread which is replete with examples. But, anyway, divide those numbers in half and it's still staggering for just a few weeks of combat.RAB87 said:
How are those losses remotely possible? In an age where there is video of everything, there is very little evidence of any such losses. We lost less than 2000 troops in the entire Afghan war. Seems like western media propaganda unhinged.
You don't see the volume or quality of videos of combat losses on the news networks because their reporters aren't in the combat zone. It's really dangerous there which means that none of the recognized names and faces want to go there to get an on-site video. All the best reporting is being done by locals who are in the middle of it without a choice. There is an incredible amount of visually verified destroyed Russian equipment being tracked independently by Twitter accounts such as @oryxspioenkop.
There is no place in Ukraine like the balcony of the Al Rasheed hotel in Baghdad where "journalists" took turns putting on body armor and a helmet reporting with "shock & awe" in the background because they knew that there was a giant NFA around their location. Isn't it strange that journalists have no such trust and sense of safety around Russian army.
RAB87 said:
How are those losses remotely possible? In an age where there is video of everything, there is very little evidence of any such losses. We lost less than 2000 troops in the entire Afghan war. Seems like western media propaganda unhinged.
Further to my other tweet, in case anyone is interested in comparing the Oryx numbers to Ukrainian reserves, here are the force estimates from The Military Balance 2021 by IISS
— Michael Bond (@HelloMrBond) March 18, 2022
https://t.co/pOe8kmuPSN pic.twitter.com/MJ9HQiAipo
If all you are watching is Fox or CNN you won't see it. As others have said get on twitter and TikTok and start searching Ukrainian combat footage and Russian losses. There are several accounts that are teams of people independently verifying each claimed loss and they seem to track. The numbers being put out by Ukrainian government are as suspect as what ours was putting out at the height of Afghanistan and Iraq.RAB87 said:
How are those losses remotely possible? In an age where there is video of everything, there is very little evidence of any such losses. We lost less than 2000 troops in the entire Afghan war. Seems like western media propaganda unhinged.
Bottom line is by US standards Russia has two or three divisions that are combat ineffective.
There are also verified sightings of the Russian soldiers returning to Belorussian hospitals with wounded and dying in anything that would drive. Lots of civilian vehicles being used as field ambulances and just driving up to any civilian hospital and dropping off wounded soldiers. That statement alone shows you how I'll prepared the Russian army was for this invasion.
Texas A&M - 148 years of tradition, unimpeded by progress.
It's also worth noting that our medical service corps is leaps and bounds ahead of many of our peers.
The amount of personnel, training, and resources we pour into saving lives is very impressive.
I'd go so far as to say that I would rather experience a traumatic injury while in the military than in a rural civilian setting.
The amount of personnel, training, and resources we pour into saving lives is very impressive.
I'd go so far as to say that I would rather experience a traumatic injury while in the military than in a rural civilian setting.
Having been on the receiving end of that treatment and seeing the medivac process from the inside I wouldn't argue with that.
Texas A&M - 148 years of tradition, unimpeded by progress.
https://kyivindependent.com/national/how-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bukraine-swaps-living-soldiers-for-dead-russians/
Here is another example of not only how bad the Russian army is doing but their total lack of ability to recover bodies just a few Km from their own front lines.
T90 and two BMP 2 destroyed in an ambush. The bodies barrier by locals and then dug up by Ukrainians to swap for two living Ukrainian POWs.
Here is another example of not only how bad the Russian army is doing but their total lack of ability to recover bodies just a few Km from their own front lines.
T90 and two BMP 2 destroyed in an ambush. The bodies barrier by locals and then dug up by Ukrainians to swap for two living Ukrainian POWs.
That's the antique stuff the Russians are giving the separatist militias in Donbas.BQ_90 said:
https://instagr.am/p/CbayW-9O5Vs
is busting out WWII gear a good sign?
A classic Maxim and what appears to be a bolt action rifle.
Is anyone else shocked about the Russians comms and logistic issues?
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
Not really. What they lack on sophistication and execution they've always made up for in fodder. Except in Ukraine.
This is true. I had figured they had come out of that mindset. Maybe it is just because I'm American, but I cannot fathom having troops go in like that with off the shelf radios and no logistic support. Not to mention the failure to gain complete dominance of the airspace.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
Supposedly multiple Russian generals, and many colonels and other officers are getting killed in Ukraine. Putin can't keep this up much longer, as has been said multiple times already.
I think he just needs an exit strategy where he can somewhat save face.
I think he just needs an exit strategy where he can somewhat save face.
F him.
He can exit or one way or the other he loses his head.
Giving in and allowing him to save face is the reason we continue to have issues with dictators.
He can exit or one way or the other he loses his head.
Giving in and allowing him to save face is the reason we continue to have issues with dictators.
Yeah, nobody wants those battlefield promotions.bigtruckguy3500 said:
Supposedly multiple Russian generals, and many colonels and other officers are getting killed in Ukraine. Putin can't keep this up much longer, as has been said multiple times already.
I think he just needs an exit strategy where he can somewhat save face.
AgLA06 said:
F him.
He can exit or one way or the other he loses his head.
Giving in and allowing him to save face is the reason we continue to have issues with dictators.
The problem is the Ukrainian people are suffering. If they're ok with suffering to continue to do damage to the Russians, then that's their call. But I don't think we should be using them to extend the war for the sake of getting rid of Putin for our own interests.
bigtruckguy3500 said:
Supposedly multiple Russian generals, and many colonels and other officers are getting killed in Ukraine. Putin can't keep this up much longer, as has been said multiple times already.
I think he just needs an exit strategy where he can somewhat save face.
Their failure of coms and loss of moral is forcing their GO's and senior Col's to push to the front toaintaon C2. They have little to no ISR and are just stumbling into combat. Every mission they run seems to be a blind movement to contact.
bigtruckguy3500 said:
Based on the first few days of the invasion, I have a feeling the Russians were going for a "shock and awe" like we did in Iraq. They went heavy with a show of rockets, artillery, helicopters, jets, tanks, paratroopers, etc. Based off the fact that Putin kept a significant chunk of his military inside Russia, I suspect they didn't think it would be this long of a fight.
Russian generals for years have been infatuated with Desert Storm. In particular, how quickly the US destroyed Saddam's entire C2 via air dominance.
It seems there was a lack of intelligence or maybe just an arrogance powerful armies have. However I read the head of FSB was dismissed.
Uh oh…
Quote:
(Reuters) - British military intelligence said on Monday the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, has been deployed to eastern Ukraine.
"They are expected to deploy more than 1,000 mercenaries, including senior leaders of the organisation, to undertake combat operations," Britain's Ministry of Defence said.
https://news.sky.com/story/russians-reportedly-take-out-own-secure-communications-system-during-kharkiv-assault-12560577AgBQ-00 said:
Is anyone else shocked about the Russians comms and logistic issues?
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