- Big one right now & one reason we grew a replacement business so fast, is the R-22 milestone on Jan. 1 2020. ( R-22 is ~1,800x more damaging than Carbon Dioxide to the Ozone) Fun Fact : Prices have been falling to buy R-22 for a few years, and contractors keep charging more to pump it in..
Jan 1 no more can be made or imported - there's a large supply, but hopefully soon it's going to make contractors feel a bit shady selling it, bigger businesses don't like to step into gray areas like other are willing. ( If a system has been leaking- putting more in is knowingly releasing it into the Ozone. )
- Whatever happens with Tariffs and such- idk, but we've seeing an industry wide increase in the cost of everything. Willing to bet Q1 of 2020 equipment prices are going to jump again- we've seen up to ~14% in the past 18 months. IMO every 4 to 6 months that homeowners wait to replace, their equipment cost might go up ~$400 to $600. ( We now have 3 major brands to shop inbetween to help mitigate this cost increase as much as possible) Once a tariffs increase the price once, manufactures don't decrease it if it goes away.
- There has been one major change that will effect older Furnaces, when the current supply of the older motors runs out, many older furnaces are going to have to be replaced altogether. ( New Furnaces are very efficient, older ones are not, but older inefficient furnace still can get the job done- especially in Texas. So in a round about way, someone higher up said it's time for older furnaces to go)
- in 2023 R-410a is looking like it'll be replaced and we'll have another generational phase-out for New System installs / Replacements. From the looks of things, this replacement will likely be flammable ( think propane), which will likely do wonders in taking a largely unregulated industry into regulation mode- almost overnight. This year I had a COO of a major manufacture hold up his hands and say 'We have no idea what that's going to look like"- Lots of Code changes, Insurance, Transportation, Safety systems, how things can be brazed with a torch with propane inside the copper etc.. We'll be having to carry A/C systems preloaded with a flammable refringent and put a torch to it. - costs go up I would assume.
( I hope to have about 100 vans sitting all over Texas waiting for 2023 to arrive- a lot of my competition without licenses & big insurance policies might not be competition)
There's also predicted to be a shortage of techs- by about 115,000 in next few years, especially with the so many in the trades aging out. so add a bit more cost to install these higher tech / higher efficiency rated systems.
- Source of a lot of info is the Trade publications I get in the mail multiple times per week. Good times for millennials to learn this Trade.