What do you think you would shoot at Oakmont?

13,004 Views | 137 Replies | Last: 9 yr ago by watty
aginlakeway
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
Big difference between 12.5 and 15 or 16. I also wonder if they mowed the rough this morning. I also wonder if they putted everything out. I also wonder if they really played the actual tournament tees (I know they said they did but sometimes people play the "back" tees but aren't really all the way back). IF they did all those things and really shot those numbers, I would still maintain that they just played one of the rounds of their lives and couldn't back it up again even if given several tries. Just my opinion.
Bingo on all counts ...
agsalaska
How long do you want to ignore this user?
When did it run 15 or 16 this week? I never heard them say it got that fast. Pretty sure 12.5 was about where they were the first 3 rounds.



Edit. They ran a 14 on Sunday, the fastest they ran all week.
t - cam
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
Big difference between 12.5 and 15 or 16. I also wonder if they mowed the rough this morning. I also wonder if they putted everything out. I also wonder if they really played the actual tournament tees (I know they said they did but sometimes people play the "back" tees but aren't really all the way back). IF they did all those things and really shot those numbers, I would still maintain that they just played one of the rounds of their lives and couldn't back it up again even if given several tries. Just my opinion.


The point of the exercise was for them to play the tournament set up so I'm guessing they didn't make many changes today.
aginlakeway
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
When did it run 15 or 16 this week? I never heard them say it got that fast. Pretty sure 12.5 was about where they were the first 3 rounds.



Edit. They ran a 14 on Sunday, the fastest they ran all week.
I said IF he shot that playing the exact same course as Sunday, that's very impressive. But based on my experience, I doubt it was the same course. It can't be the same course 18 hours later. Still, that's very impressive.

07fta07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I saw them posted at 14.8 for Sunday and they said they expected them over 15 by the end of the day.
DannyDuberstein
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The rough was likely even higher. And it would have been Sunday tees. Played the Nelson several times like this on Momday when my company was the sponsor. That is the point. The only difference is that I'd guess the green were a bit slower because I would estimate they were mowed again but not rolled as much. Not going to add 10 strokes for a sub 5.

Another factor is mental approach and toughness. There is a difference between expecting high difficulty but with a plan to accept and approach it vs being intimidated and mentally your ass is already kicked before you hit your first shot. That can cause a huge swing in score between individuals of similar skill.
Quinn
How long do you want to ignore this user?


Here's another guy that played on Monday - says he is a 15.
watty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
A 15 shot a 102? What tees did they play from? Because there was a birdie and two pars on the 288 yard par 3, so that tells me they weren't playing the full length.
t - cam
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
A 15 shot a 102? What tees did they play from? Because there was a birdie and two pars on the 288 yard par 3, so that tells me they weren't playing the full length.


They were playing the championship tees. It has been mentioned her 3 times.
t - cam
How long do you want to ignore this user?
People are upset that most of us predicting we could break 100 if we played good are probably right.
watty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
quote:
A 15 shot a 102? What tees did they play from? Because there was a birdie and two pars on the 288 yard par 3, so that tells me they weren't playing the full length.


They were playing the championship tees. It has been mentioned her 3 times.

Where does it say that that guy played the championship tees? I don't see that anywhere, including his twitter feed.

There is no way a 15 could shoot a 102 on Sundays course. No way. A 15 is bad enough that they still occasionally shoot over 100 on their local 6400 yard course with no rough.
t - cam
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
quote:
quote:
A 15 shot a 102? What tees did they play from? Because there was a birdie and two pars on the 288 yard par 3, so that tells me they weren't playing the full length.


They were playing the championship tees. It has been mentioned her 3 times.

Where does it say that that guy played the championship tees? I don't see that anywhere, including his twitter feed.

There is no way a 15 could shoot a 102 on Sundays course. No way. A 15 is bad enough that they still occasionally shoot over 100 on their local 6400 yard course with no rough.


I'm assuming he was part of the media challenge that was referenced earlier in this thread a couple times.
agsalaska
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It's possible they played from different tees. They may not allow a 15 to go to the back but go ahead and let a 3 give it all they got.
Icecream_Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
A 15 shot a 102? What tees did they play from? Because there was a birdie and two pars on the 288 yard par 3, so that tells me they weren't playing the full length.
if you hit driver 270-280 it could put you in good position to make birdie.
07fta07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Stirring the pot with driver distances
Icecream_Ag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I know, I know,

Everyone and their dog hits their drives 320 right down the middle.
Gig-Em2003
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I doubt they played the tips. I can't imagine Oakmont is excited about hosting a bunch of hacker media types for 6:30 hour rounds the day after the Open. Who knows.
Matsui
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Greens were an 11 I read. And the only tees out were the championship tees. They played them. The snapchatted, periscoped shots and the round and all were hitting from the USGA tee markers.
Matsui
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oakmont and most courses let the media play the next day. Augusta does it as well (they have a lottery).
agsalaska
How long do you want to ignore this user?
They played the tips.
agsalaska
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I read 12.5

Who knows.
07fta07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
Greens were an 11 I read. And the only tees out were the championship tees. They played them. The snapchatted, periscoped shots and the round and all were hitting from the USGA tee markers.

No no no. Texags doubts this therefore it didn't happen.
watty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
I'd just say that the odds of three 10-20 handicappers playing a 288 yard par 3 in a combined one under par are astronomical.

But again, these scores they're shooting, you just never know. I obviously don't buy it. Something (likely multiple things) is different. Green speeds are down, I think that's a guarantee. And that's worth multiple shots. I also always wonder about the little things, little rules violations, putting out every time, not improving any lies, etc.

Is the hypothetical "what would you shoot at Oakmont if you played well?" or is it "what would you shoot on the exact same course that DJ played on Sunday if you played an average round?" Very different questions.

Maybe I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
t - cam
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
I'd just say that the odds of three 10-20 handicappers playing a 288 yard par 3 in a combined one under par are astronomical.

But again, these scores they're shooting, you just never know. I obviously don't buy it. Something (likely multiple things) is different. Green speeds are down, I think that's a guarantee. And that's worth multiple shots. I also always wonder about the little things, little rules violations, putting out every time, not improving any lies, etc.

Is the hypothetical "what would you shoot at Oakmont if you played well?" or is it "what would you shoot on the exact same course that DJ played on Sunday if you played an average round?" Very different questions.

Maybe I'm wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
definitely a big difference from what would you normally shoot at Oakmont vs. What's the best you could shoot at Oakmont.
cheeky
How long do you want to ignore this user?
As I recall I shot 92 from the member tee it was a little damp and very windy. I'm playing again in September and would be disappointed if I didn't break 90 now that I've played it once before. It's all about the rough there and when the wind gets to blowing that is very difficult. 4 handicap.
oldschool87
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Well one thing is for sure, maybe both...

Mr. 11 handicapper is a complete sandbagger and is really a 2. And, they were not playing from the tips...

288 par 3 and there was a birdie and 2 pars...

ummm no.
watty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
What's the best you could shoot at Oakmont.

I'm about a 14 or 15 right now, and I'd say the absolute best round I could play on Sunday's US Open course would be 120+. Looking hole by hole, if I played each hole with normal skill and no disasters or 3 putts, it would put me around 95-100, but obviously, the reason I'm a 15 handicap is that I have a few disasters a round and I do hit bad shots and I do hit bad putts and I chunk the occasional chip and I do shank the occasional drive. When you factor in extra putts, a few disastrous tee shots, a few other horrible shots, it's pretty easy to see it getting over 120 even with the exact same quality of game that shoots a 90 on my local course. I hit plenty of bad shots there that still lead to bogey. One bad shot at Oakmont, I'm not recovering for bogey.
oldschool87
How long do you want to ignore this user?
So a former College Golfer played the course from the tips. Said he thought maybe he left 4 strokes on the course, but other than that, he said he played as well as he could. He shot an 89.

What exactly are we arguing about again?????
03_Aggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
So a former College Golfer played the course from the tips. Said he thought maybe he left 4 strokes on the course, but other than that, he said he played as well as he could. He shot an 89.

What exactly are we arguing about again?????
I believe he referred to himself as a "rusty" four and proceeded to shoot an 89 with borrowed clubs. So the claim that single digit handicappers might break 90 doesn't seem so far fetched.
07fta07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
So a former College Golfer played the course from the tips. Said he thought maybe he left 4 strokes on the course, but other than that, he said he played as well as he could. He shot an 89.

What exactly are we arguing about again?????

so someone who used to be good shot 89. I'd say that supports the claims that under 100 is definitely possible for a low/mid single digit.
DannyDuberstein
How long do you want to ignore this user?
"College golfer" also leaves a wide range of what his "good" ever was.

As far as what is being argued about, every single score we've seen supports the case that a solid single digit handicapper is capable of shooting in the ballpark of 90. Then the ones that piss their pants at the thought of playing Oakmont try to marginalize it. So yes, what are we arguing about if we keep getting justification through actual scores?
Gig-Em2003
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
"College golfer" also leaves a wide range of what his "good" ever was.

As far as what is being argued about, every single score we've seen supports the case that a solid single digit handicapper is capable of shooting in the ballpark of 90. Then the ones that piss their pants at the thought of playing Oakmont try to marginalize it. So yes, what are we arguing about if we keep getting justification through actual scores?
I agree with you but will always tend to doubt the "actuality" of most scores. I know that when I play in a non-tournament environment there are typically rules violations, gimme's, etc. all over the place. For example, what are the odds one of these players lost a ball in that thick rough and just decided to drop one near where they think it went in rather than take stroke and distance?
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
How long do you want to ignore this user?
quote:
quote:
"College golfer" also leaves a wide range of what his "good" ever was.

As far as what is being argued about, every single score we've seen supports the case that a solid single digit handicapper is capable of shooting in the ballpark of 90. Then the ones that piss their pants at the thought of playing Oakmont try to marginalize it. So yes, what are we arguing about if we keep getting justification through actual scores?
I agree with you but will always tend to doubt the "actuality" of most scores. I know that when I plan in a non-tournament environment there are typically rules violations, gimme's, etc. all over the place. For example, what are the odds one of these players lost a ball in that thick rough and just decided to drop one near where they think it went in rather than take stroke and distance?


I hate this argument, a "pro" would never lose a ball 5 steps off the fairway because of crowds and spotters. Have them find their own ball and see what happens.
watty
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Enjoying the debate.

Side question: what course do you think you would struggle with the most?
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.