quote:
will they do it? i wouldnt bet alot of U.S. currency on it.
quote:
SABERMETRICIAN
A person who studies baseball statistics.
This is not a particularly well-used word anywhere, but it’s almost unknown outside North America, even among the minority who follow baseball in other countries. The game, I am told, is unusual among competitive sports in that there has been no fundamental change in the rules for almost a century and that, as with cricket but unlike most other team sports, statistics on the performance of individual players have real meaning. So it is possible to compare the players of today with those of previous generations in a meaningful way. According to my US sources, the term is first attested in the early 1980s, and derives from the acronym SABR, short for the Society for American Baseball Research, whose members collect and analyse baseball statistics. Several compounds are known, such as sabermetrics for the discipline.
quote:
Secondary Average: This is my favorite statistic to compare players and teams because it takes into account all important aspects of the game: hitting for power, ability to get on base via the walk and base running. It correlates very well with run production, that is, an above average team will score an above average number of runs, almost proportionately.
SecAvg = (doubles + 2*triples + 3*homers + walks + stolen bases - caught stealing) / AB
Pythagorean Theory: Bill James noticed that dividing a team's wins by it's loses will result in a very similar number if he divided the square of their runs scored by the square of the runs allowed. In other words,
wins / losses ~=~(runs scored)^2) / (runs allowed)^2)
From this theory, we can judge whether a team was an overachiever if the wins to losses ratio was higher than the runs ratio. Otherwise, the team was an underachiever.
Expected Wins (EW): By comparing the number of runs scored and allowed against the league average, it can be determined how many games a team should win. For example, if a team scores an average number of runs and also allows an average number, it should play .500 ball. If either number goes up or down, the number of wins goes up or down accordingly.
EW = (((runs scored / league average) - (runs allowed / league average)) * games / 2) + (games / 2)
Once again, if we compare this expected wins total with the actual total, we can see whether the team overachieved or underachieved. Usually, EW is within three games of the actual total.
XR (Extrapolated Runs): The concept behind this stat was to assign a number of runs scored to players. The higher the number, the better, and a player with 100 runs who is being replaced with one with 85 runs will cost his team 15 runs. The complicated formula is:
XR = (.50 *x 1B) + (.72 * 2B) + (1.04 * 3B) + (1.44 * HR) + (.34 * (HP + TBB - IBB)) + (.25 * IBB) + (.18 * B) + (-.32 * CS) + (-.090 * (AB - H - K)) + (-.098 * K)+ (-.37 * GIDP) + (.37 * SF) + (.04 * SH)
The problem with it, and the creators know this, is that these multipliers can vary from season to season. In fact, the formula was created based on data since the 1955 season. Another formula is needed for seasons prior to 1955. There is also a "reduced" XR formula as well as a "basic" one.
ZR (Zone Rating): Invented by Stats, Inc. around 1989, it is a very good stat to compare players defensively. Basically, although it is in reality more complicated than this, each player has a zone to cover. Any ball hit in that zone is counted and any outs made by the player. Dividing one into the other results in a zone rating. It is possible to have a ZR over 1. The problem with it is that Stats Inc. does not publish ZR data and it is impossible to calculate retroactively for players of the past since we need to know where each ball was hit. However, it is a better tool than fielding average in my opinion.
BAT/BAR: Bases Advanced Teammates and Bases Advanced as Runner. My own unofficial statistic, something I came up with a while ago yet I have never calculated it. BAT it is a measure of how many bases a hitter advances teammates already on base.
If a teammate is on second, there is a potential of two bases to advance him. If he scores, the hitter goes 2-for-2 or a 1.000 BAT. If the hitter advanced him to third, he goes 1-for-2, otherwise, he is 0-for-2. If there are runners on first and third, there is the potential of four bases to advance teammates. In a bases loaded situation, there are six potential bases to advance teammates.
My opinion is that this stat would be much more informative than just recording the number of team-mates that scored - runs batted in - as a result of your hitting. Once on base, you also have the opportunity to be advanced by your teammates. So if you are on first, you have an opportunity to advance three bases. This is a measure of how good your teammates are at advancing you instead of just counting the number of times that you scored.
On a team level, BAT and BAR will be equal. Presumably, a higher average team will score more often or at the very least, be difficult to prevent them from scoring
quote:
Boston believing in new Theo-logy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com
Just wanted to answer a couple of inquiries today, while at the same time I try to figure out how to ask Billy Beane -- I'll see him this weekend in Oakland -- why on earth he'd want to lock up Scott Hatteberg for two more seasons ...
Good morning, Rob.
I'll be the first to admit that I really like Phil Dumatrait, the minor-league pitcher traded to Cincy for Scott Williamson. That said, Theo Epstein has done an amazing job of improving the Red Sox with very limited prospects. The last two months the Sox have added Kim, Sauerbeck, Jones and now Williamson, and as best as I can tell, Dumatrait is the only real prospect that the Sox have dealt to get them. Is there another GM who has done a better job with trades this season? I think the Sox ownership has found a gem of a GM in Epstein!
-- Ryan Vachon
Theo Epstein has made an immediate impact.
Based on what we've seen since Epstein took over last winter, I'm inclined to agree. I'm not the biggest Todd Jones fan in the world, but Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Sauerbeck, and Scott Williamson all are quality relievers.
When the season started, the standard criticisms of the Red Sox bullpen were 1) they had the wrong plan, or 2) they had the wrong pitchers, or 3) both.
Well, now they've got everybody else's plan and they've got a lot of the right pitchers, so it seems to me that if the Red Sox bullpen is not a strength down the stretch, then it's on the manager.
And you know, I don't really buy the notion that it's only now that Theo Epstein has proved his worth. In addition to building what now looks like a pretty good bullpen, isn't Epstein also the guy who, months ago, built a roster that's leading the major leagues in runs scored?
There's really not much more that Epstein can do. Sure, the Sox could use a quality starting pitcher, as neither John Burkett nor Ramiro Mendoza inspire great confidence these days. But whatever happens from this point forward, it's been a great first year for the youngest general manager in major-league history.
