I take that back...I'm staring at a closed sale right now that went $7k over list.
I'm actually kind of shocked at that.
I'm actually kind of shocked at that.
Checking in on our realtors...
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Last: 8 days ago by SoTheySay
Pizza said:Diggity said:
not seeing a ton of sales going over list in this market.
Those that do are mainly on the high end and low end. The middle is just dead.
I'm seeing less than 4% of sales go for 3%+ over list.
Nobody is going over list in the Market areas I cover.
Most realtors just price high, and settle within 3% of Real AVM/Realist, hoping the Appraisal comes in at a number they want.
I guess I'm not understanding your original post then.
if the successful agents are listing well under market to attract a "bidding war" wouldn't they be getting over list?
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MS08 said:Heineken-Ashi said:
Real estate cycles are slow. But inevitable. This has been coming for a while, and we're not even to the fun part yet.
I see you on the B&I boards, stocks thread, so, in your own words, what would you say the 'fun part' is?
Now you've done it....
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The thing I'll say is you're going to see lots of people talking about this is the lowest sales activity in the last 30 years. Which I am not debating.... The market seems to be holding up purely because there is a large contingent amount of owners who have low rates and don't need to sell.
But that just means we are ripe for a catalyst event that causes folks to sell (or rather need to sell) that can push more sellers into listing on the market. More sellers with continued apathy from the buyer pool could further push prices down.
Not to mention - the prevailing theory is that the higher rates go, the lower prices go. We've seen the rates go higher, but prices going lower is a lagging indicator and we've only just begun to see the data coming in.
But that just means we are ripe for a catalyst event that causes folks to sell (or rather need to sell) that can push more sellers into listing on the market. More sellers with continued apathy from the buyer pool could further push prices down.
Not to mention - the prevailing theory is that the higher rates go, the lower prices go. We've seen the rates go higher, but prices going lower is a lagging indicator and we've only just begun to see the data coming in.
The framing on the "Don't need to sell" crowd has always been interesting. When prices were higher, they were "Don't need to sell." When prices are going lower, they are more trapped.
If you bought a home in 2015 for 300k, that house reached 650k during Covid, and now it's 575k. You are probably eyeing a house worth 800k-1.0MM. Thats either expensive debt now, or you have to buy with more equity knowing the market is likely headed down or at the very most compressed returns. It's more strength than weakness, but that's real uncertainty, when you'd like to turn all that equity into a newer home, a better school district, more sq footage, etc.
If you bought a home in 2015 for 300k, that house reached 650k during Covid, and now it's 575k. You are probably eyeing a house worth 800k-1.0MM. Thats either expensive debt now, or you have to buy with more equity knowing the market is likely headed down or at the very most compressed returns. It's more strength than weakness, but that's real uncertainty, when you'd like to turn all that equity into a newer home, a better school district, more sq footage, etc.
What is the fun part?
many people will just stay put in that scenario.
Some will "have" to leave to get into the school boundary they're looking for, but many decide it's not worth the jump. In Houston especially, many have already given up on the public schools so that's no longer a big factor for them.
If you're out of space and no way to expand, that's another issue, but as you mentioned, you'll likely have to go down a notch or two on the neighborhoods you're targeting (unless money is no object).
Some will "have" to leave to get into the school boundary they're looking for, but many decide it's not worth the jump. In Houston especially, many have already given up on the public schools so that's no longer a big factor for them.
If you're out of space and no way to expand, that's another issue, but as you mentioned, you'll likely have to go down a notch or two on the neighborhoods you're targeting (unless money is no object).
Red Pear Luke said:
The market seems to be holding up purely because there is a large contingent amount of owners who have low rates and don't need to sell.
For us personally, we've gone from, "we're going to need a bigger house", to "the numbers dont make sense with rates being high so we'll wait", to "our oldest is now a freshman in highschool and we're just going to ride it out where we are". Then once the oldest is gone, the need to upgrade is gone permanently. We might move locations or buy a second home somewhere else but I'm pretty sure the ship has sailed on us ever moving up. From the birth of our first child until the last one leaves the house will only be two houses, whereas the original plan was for three.
Lots of other families on our street seem to be hunkered down as well with no plans to move up. Could be an interesting dynamic going forward, if the same thing is repeated all across the country.
CS78 said:Red Pear Luke said:
The market seems to be holding up purely because there is a large contingent amount of owners who have low rates and don't need to sell.
For us personally, we've gone from, "we're going to need a bigger house", to "the numbers dont make sense with rates being high so we'll wait", to "our oldest is now a freshman in highschool and we're just going to ride it out where we are". Then once the oldest is gone, the need to upgrade is gone permanently. We might move locations or buy a second home somewhere else but I'm pretty sure the ship has sailed on us ever moving up. From the birth of our first child until the last one leaves the house will only be two houses, whereas the original plan was for three.
Lots of other families on our street seem to be hunkered down as well with no plans to move up. Could be an interesting dynamic going forward, if the same thing is repeated all across the country.
This is exactly where we are. Add in that 5 years ago we refinanced to 2.125 for 15 years, and there is zero reason to leave. My guess is that we find some land in the next 5 years to build on once the kids are gone.
We downsized with the intent to build again after taking the signficant profits. The offer was too good to not accept. Now the kids are entering high school and we are probably going to go the second home route instead of going up in square footage.
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My transaction volume is down quite a bit this year. I've averaged 11-12 homes sold each year over the last three years, and I'm sitting at just 6 right now. Lots of buyers are on the fence with interest rates where they are, and plenty of sellers still think it's 2022 when it comes to pricing.
Luckily, I also teach real estate at my local high school, so it hasn't hurt me too bad. But man, I feel for the agents who do this full-time and depend on it to pay the bills.
Luckily, I also teach real estate at my local high school, so it hasn't hurt me too bad. But man, I feel for the agents who do this full-time and depend on it to pay the bills.
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1,112 to 6?!? Wow, I had no idea things were that bad.
ETA: maybe you meant "11-12" not 1,112...
ETA: maybe you meant "11-12" not 1,112...
I'm assuming he meant 11-12 homes per year. Otherwise he could payoff Elko's contract.
Yeah 3 sales a day would be pretty impressive
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wessimo said:
1,112 to 6?!? Wow, I had no idea things were that bad.
ETA: maybe you meant "11-12" not 1,112...
Yes, sorry. 11-12 homes.
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looking to downsize, use proceeds from sale to pay cash and then a mortgage rate doesn't matter. No incentive to move sitting at 2.75% mortgage rate now. We are Eanes ISD (Austin Westlake).
What's the opportunity cost of paying cash?
I have been debating this pay vs just ride it out. I have a rental at 7.25% and probably net negative 40K/yr. I can pay off the note/taking write off vs putting it in the market.
Likely will just throw in the market in something like GPIQ and gain 10-11% dividends. I understand the risk and willing to take this bet.
Likely will just throw in the market in something like GPIQ and gain 10-11% dividends. I understand the risk and willing to take this bet.
I finally looked. I've sold 9 less than I did in all of 2025. Could be much, much worse! I have a few good listings coming and a few active buyers but already pushing some closings in 2027.
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