Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos

August 2026 Central Texas Housing Report

Quote:

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"Austin is not immune to what is happening across the rest of the country, and August's housing data reflects some of the same affordability and interest rate pressures we're seeing nationwide," Vaike O'Grady, market research advisor at Unlock MLS, said. "Still, Austin is resilient. Central Texas continues to see economic development and job growth across the region. Higher interest rates mean fewer potential buyers, but positive pending sales and continued building activity show the market is still moving. Continued job creation and business growth across the region remain important signals of the underlying strength supporting Central Texas housing."

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Wow, has it been a tough year for real estate. Nationally, there are now roughly 500K more sellers than buyers. I just got my Fredericksburg listing under contract after only 13 days on the market, which I'm pretty damn happy about considering that market has around 12 months of inventory. For those who don't follow this stuff, that's roughly 2 sellers competing for every buyer. My clients will save just over $13K in listing fees by using Red Pear Realty and our 1.5% listing fee.

I've said it before, but I think it's especially true right now: every dollar matters.

Whether it's negotiating below asking price, getting seller concessions, helping with closing costs through a buyer rebate, or saving sellers thousands on listing fees, I'm always looking for ways to put more money back in my clients' pockets.

Here's a quick look at the August 2026 Austin-area housing market:
Median Sales Price: $412,000, down 6.4% year-over-year
Closed Sales: 2,501, down 7.3%
Sales Dollar Volume: $1.40 billion, down 11.1%
Months of Inventory: 5.1 months, down 0.4 months year-over-year
New Listings: 3,579, down 7.0%
Active Listings: 13,676, down 6.5%
Pending Sales: 2,623, up 1.5%
Average Days on Market: 66 days, down 3 days
Average Close-to-List Price: 93.2%, compared to 92.2% last August

Buyer Takeaways:

• Buyers still have leverage. Homes are closing at about 93% of original list price, leaving room to negotiate on price, concessions, repairs, and rate buydowns.
• Prices have moved lower. The median sales price fell 6.4% year-over-year to $412,000.
• Buyers still have choices. The market has 5.1 months of inventory, giving buyers more options and less pressure to rush.

Seller Takeaways:

• Pricing matters more than ever. Closed sales fell 7.3% and the median price declined 6.4%, making realistic pricing critical.
• There's less competition. Active listings are down 6.5% and new listings are down 7% compared with last year.
• Homes are moving slightly faster. Average days on market dropped from 69 to 66 days, while pending sales increased 1.5%.

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County

Mortgage rates in the US rose above 7% for the first time since January 2025, putting further pressure on the struggling housing market.

• Yes rates are high, but historically rates have averaged 7.68% since 1971. The 10 YR, currently at 5.18 has averaged 5.8% since 1962. If Fed inflation target is 2% (however, realistically 2-3%) and GDP growth is around the same range that pegs the 10 YR in the 5s. Yes, there's a lot of factors pushing yields up (war, oil, lack of buyers for US paper, deficit growth, AI) but I don't know how you can get rates back in the 3s unless we have a major negative economic event.
  
• The issue is the explosive value increase in homes in 2020-2022 and Buyers getting dinged with higher rates and wages that haven't kept up with the increased costs of living.
  
• Best case scenario, values stay flat to slightly down for the next 3 years with rates in the 6-7% range while giving a chance for wage growth to catch up and value increases to track back in line with the trend line.
  
• Worst case scenario, runaway inflation, economic deterioration, mass unemployment.
• Place your bets..

North Texas
Looking at August, the market is stable but slowing. Supply and sales both fell by roughly the same amount, so prices held flat rather than moving either way.

• Inventory tightened slightly to 4.4 months. That's still below the roughly 6 months usually considered balanced, but I wouldn't say that translates into a sellers market, given the higher rates. That is a deliberately choice by sellers pulling listings off the market because they rather sit tight on their 3% mortgages or not wanting to realize a loss if bought after 2023.
• Nationwide, the average rate on existing, outstanding mortgages sits between 4.3% and 4.4%, climbing gradually from a low of 3.8% in 2022 as newer, higher-rate originations enter the pool. Nearly 50% of outstanding mortgages still carry an interest rate under 4%, though the share of loans with rates above 6% has risen to over 22%.
• Pricing power is limited: price growth is under 1%, and it still takes about 90 days from listing to closing.
  For buyers, that means room to negotiate on homes that have been sitting.
  
• Notably, Tarrant, Rockwall, and Parker counties all with YoY pricing declines.
  
• Sellers should continue to price realistically if they really want to sell.
  
• Overall, I would characterize the market as stagnant. I've tracked a lot of listings that have either been terminated or converted to rentals as sellers are not hitting their number and can't come to grasp with the realization of taking a loss in order to sell. If you have a mortgage in the 3s, renting might make sense, however, if you bought in the last 3 years renting likely doesn't pencil.

DFW and Austin.. we getting anything for the Houston area?