The Houston market in 3 charts

30 Year Mortgage Rate - red
US Active Listings - blue
US Existing Home Sales - green

Heineken-Ashi said:

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30 Year Mortgage Rate - red
US Active Listings - blue
US Existing Home Sales - green

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Market segmentation is the real story in this phase of the market. Insulated higher end market still setting records and hyper competitive in Houston at least.

So many market trends and data points don't make sense to me (and haven't for a while).

I think we're in for some major pain. I'm ready to just get it over with at this point. Rip the bandaid off.

WestHoustonAg79 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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30 Year Mortgage Rate - red
US Active Listings - blue
US Existing Home Sales - green

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Market segmentation is the real story in this phase of the market. Insulated higher end market still setting records and hyper competitive in Houston at least.

So many market trends and data points don't make sense to me (and haven't for a while).

I think we're in for some major pain. I'm ready to just get it over with at this point. Rip the bandaid off.

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The most pain comes from the slow bleed. Don't believe me? Go ask a class C apartment investor.

This is why I'm remodeling my house and not trying to sell/upgrade. Two houses that have identical floorplans to mine sold in the last year. One was remodeled and sold for almost $200k more than the other. The remodeled house was on the market for a week. The other was on the market for months.

How's the high-end San Antonio market looking in and around the Dominion?

cgh1999 said:

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This is why I'm remodeling my house and not trying to sell/upgrade. Two houses that have identical floorplans to mine sold in the last year. One was remodeled and sold for almost $200k more than the other. The remodeled house was on the market for a week. The other was on the market for months.

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but how much was the remodel?

aggiepaintrain said:

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cgh1999 said:

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This is why I'm remodeling my house and not trying to sell/upgrade. Two houses that have identical floorplans to mine sold in the last year. One was remodeled and sold for almost $200k more than the other. The remodeled house was on the market for a week. The other was on the market for months.

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but how much was the remodel?

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The price was less than the $200k difference. Buying a new home of similar size and upgrades would cost $400k more than I can sell my house for and would require moving schools for my sophomore. Not to mention that a pool and patio to match mine would cost $200k vs the $100k I spent 7 years ago.

Heineken-Ashi said:

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WestHoustonAg79 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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30 Year Mortgage Rate - red
US Active Listings - blue
US Existing Home Sales - green

---

Market segmentation is the real story in this phase of the market. Insulated higher end market still setting records and hyper competitive in Houston at least.

So many market trends and data points don't make sense to me (and haven't for a while).

I think we're in for some major pain. I'm ready to just get it over with at this point. Rip the bandaid off.

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The most pain comes from the slow bleed. Don't believe me? Go ask a class C apartment investor.

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Talk about a group that is taking it in the shorts right now...
Unless there's a 2008-level collapse in the housing market, it's going to take forever for all those 3% house notes to cycle through the market.

Here are today's mortgage rates. Absolutely brutal. These are all primary residence home loans.

Iran war and the feds spending like drunken sailors is overwhelming the bond markets. On top of this oil is comfortable over 100 a barrel.

Edit: this was after the Fed raised their rates. Basically the market has already priced in the raise.

median (CDOM-DOM)/DOM per month is one I like to keep on my spreadsheet.

For every day homes were on the market, how much time were they actually exposed to the market before they went pending. Gives a nice & simplistic snapshot of market velocity.

Pizza said:

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median (CDOM-DOM)/DOM per month is one I like to keep on my spreadsheet.

For every day homes were on the market, how much time were they actually exposed to the market before they went pending. Gives a nice & simplistic snapshot of market velocity.

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When terminated listings are sky high, that data can be meaningless as it doesnt care if a house sold or was pulled. If everyone is pulling listings at 30 days, and houses that sell are going pending in 30 days, then your data is only telling you that listings are exposed to the market for 30 days. Even if you tracked just confirmed sales, thats just the low % of listings that actually transact, at a time when transactions are historically low.

I'd like to see how many of those terminated listings are then re-listed again at a lower cost. I've already seen a few in my neighborhood.

this is true. They're often terminated and brought back at the same price as well. Just a low effort way to show up in the MLS as a "new listing" and get some renewed attention in a crowded market.

Diggity said:

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this is true. They're often terminated and brought back at the same price as well. Just a low effort way to show up in the MLS as a "new listing" and get some renewed attention in a crowded market.

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Doesn't change the sheer volume of them. It's significantly elevated over prior years indicating that sellers are not getting their price and are removing listings. With transaction volume running extremely low, it's very unlikely there's some huge conversion rate from re-listings.

it's significantly elevated because listings are sitting longer. It's obviously a tough time for most sellers and you're naturally going to see a higher percentage of terminated listings when the market is slow and there's a lot of competition. It's just an easy way to drum up new attention.

Just pointing out that a lot of those get re-listed immediately. CDOM is still going to be your best metric.

I saw HAR actually introduce a new "terminated - relisted" category because of this phenomenon creeping up.

For example, here's a listing in an area I track that terminated 4 times before pulling the plug. that would show as 4 separate terminations in your report.

Speaking of interest rates. Fugging ugly