Howdy Ags!

I'm doing a periodic survey to see where TexAgs thinks the housing market in Texas is headed over the next year. Please star the post below that shows the rate of pricing increases or decreases that you expect to see in your local Texas market from Q3 2022 through Q3 2023. The more responses we get, the better. And feel free to comment why you picked what you did as well.

Cheers,

Jamie

(below is the link to results from Q1 2022)

https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3277475

DOWN 5.00% or more

DOWN 0.01% to 4.99%

UP 0.00% to 2.99%

UP 3.00% to 5.99%

UP 6.00% to 9.99%

UP 10.00% to 14.99%

UP 15.00% to 19.99%

UP 20.00% or MORE

I picked decline as supply increases and mortgage loan applications are at a 40 year low I see a surplus in home that inherently will cause a decline. On top of that, if the fed hikes another 75 basis points, lending for higher prices homes is less affordable. Take all of this into consideration plus the end of work from anywhere flexibilities, I believe there will be a correction in the housing market that would show a decline in home prices as the market is less appealing for more people.

Edited to add a comma...or 7

I don't see prices going down by more than 5%

Those with fixed rate mortgages are highly incentivized to not move since their next home would have a higher mortgage rate.

The inventory of homes will be artificially low for many years to come due to reluctance of home owners to give up low interest mortgages. The lack of inventory could offset lower demand and prevent prices to drop.

The lack of mobility for American workers who are tied to homes with low / fixed mortgage rates will be a major challenge for employers. A lot of people will be passing up job opportunities to relocate because it would require giving up their low fixed rate mortgages.

BTHOtrolls said:

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I don't see prices going down by more than 5%

Those with fixed rate mortgages are highly incentivized to not move since their next home would have a higher mortgage rate.

The inventory of homes will be artificially low for many years to come due to reluctance of home owners to give up low interest mortgages. The lack of inventory could offset lower demand and prevent prices to drop.

The lack of mobility for American workers who are tied to homes with low / fixed mortgage rates will be a major challenge for employers. A lot of people will be passing up job opportunities to relocate because it would require giving up their low fixed rate mortgages.

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Sounds like a high quality, more expensive than normal, property management firm could do well in the near future. People might be less incentivized to cash flow, but just break even and have a company that does a good job taking care of the property and managing tenants while the owners sock away the principal.

Generationally speaking, low interest rates was the biggest opportunity millennials had to get in on the easy wealth generation game. This will set up a 5-10 year windfall where people are quickly socking away cash through principal payments they wouldn't have been able to and then unwind them in to the market in a decade.

My big picture view is that millennials who own a home with low interest rates right now, with boomer parents are going to leave the workforce early in their late 40s early 50s as they inherit their parents wealth.

I picked "up 0 - 3%"

one MEEN Ag said:

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BTHOtrolls said:

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I don't see prices going down by more than 5%

Those with fixed rate mortgages are highly incentivized to not move since their next home would have a higher mortgage rate.

The inventory of homes will be artificially low for many years to come due to reluctance of home owners to give up low interest mortgages. The lack of inventory could offset lower demand and prevent prices to drop.

The lack of mobility for American workers who are tied to homes with low / fixed mortgage rates will be a major challenge for employers. A lot of people will be passing up job opportunities to relocate because it would require giving up their low fixed rate mortgages.

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Sounds like a high quality, more expensive than normal, property management firm could do well in the near future. People might be less incentivized to cash flow, but just break even and have a company that does a good job taking care of the property and managing tenants while the owners sock away the principal.

Generationally speaking, low interest rates was the biggest opportunity millennials had to get in on the easy wealth generation game. This will set up a 5-10 year windfall where people are quickly socking away cash through principal payments they wouldn't have been able to and then unwind them in to the market in a decade.

My big picture view is that millennials who own a home with low interest rates right now, with boomer parents are going to leave the workforce early in their late 40s early 50s as they inherit their parents wealth.

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The low rates were offset by significantly higher prices. Millennials absolutely did not save themselves any money and will not be "socking away" cash. We're already seeing this be true with a massive credit bubble.

Just looking at the initial stats on this thread and the results of the last one it is pretty wild how much sentiment has changed that quickly

This is going to be really interesting to watch going forward I think.

For the record, I'm in the 0% to 3% camp, and I would have been in the 6% to 10% camp last go around.

zagman said:

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one MEEN Ag said:

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BTHOtrolls said:

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I don't see prices going down by more than 5%

Those with fixed rate mortgages are highly incentivized to not move since their next home would have a higher mortgage rate.

The inventory of homes will be artificially low for many years to come due to reluctance of home owners to give up low interest mortgages. The lack of inventory could offset lower demand and prevent prices to drop.

The lack of mobility for American workers who are tied to homes with low / fixed mortgage rates will be a major challenge for employers. A lot of people will be passing up job opportunities to relocate because it would require giving up their low fixed rate mortgages.

---

Sounds like a high quality, more expensive than normal, property management firm could do well in the near future. People might be less incentivized to cash flow, but just break even and have a company that does a good job taking care of the property and managing tenants while the owners sock away the principal.

Generationally speaking, low interest rates was the biggest opportunity millennials had to get in on the easy wealth generation game. This will set up a 5-10 year windfall where people are quickly socking away cash through principal payments they wouldn't have been able to and then unwind them in to the market in a decade.

My big picture view is that millennials who own a home with low interest rates right now, with boomer parents are going to leave the workforce early in their late 40s early 50s as they inherit their parents wealth.

---

The low rates were offset by significantly higher prices. Millennials absolutely did not save themselves any money and will not be "socking away" cash. We're already seeing this be true with a massive credit bubble.

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Yeah, if you bought two months ago and tried to sell today. You'd be underwater under any economy with that quick of a turnaround.

But I bought my home before the run up (but not by that much). I refinanced to 15 year 2.0% from 30 year 4.25%. My interest payment went from 1400 to 400. Refinancing shaved $220,000 off the total cost of the loan. My monthly payment is now supercharged into paying off my loan early.

So even if I home hop let say in 4 years from now when rates aren't expected to still be this impaired, I'll have totally come out ahead on equity. But I don't plan to move anytime soon. If I did, it wouldn't be unless I've got enough equity to dump into the next home that I could significantly reduce a mortgage payment.

I chose down 0-4.9i think the market will zero out. Don't really see a decline. Demand will be much lower the next 12 months than it was the last 12z. Supply stop low but improving. Rates increasing driving some out of market. Weaker economy in general

Down 7% or more.

The combo of mortgage rates increasing , costs of capital for institutional investors going up, and a slowing economy are going to hit hard.

Picked up 0-3. Demand is still too strong in my opinion for things to slide backwards here in Texas. Still way too many cash buyers and out of staters that aren't impacted by interest rates. A close to flat line sounds more realistic than demand completely disappearing and causing a slide.

Whatever happens here will be 5-10x better than what the rest of the country experiences.

Final Results Screenshots below: