Saturday's Showdown at Reed is a potential bubble-burster

Click here to view Texas A&M’s Friday press conference.

The stakes don’t get much higher than this.

The Cotton Holdings Lone Star Showdown trophy might not be the most important prize awarded on Saturday at 3 p.m. CT, as there’s an at-large bid to March Madness potentially up for grabs.

Texas A&M (19-9, 9-6) hosts Texas (17-11, 8-7) at Reed Arena in the second matchup of the Lone Star Showdown as both teams look to reach their magic number of SEC wins needed to feel great about making the NCAA Tournament.

The Longhorns have eight wins and need nine.

The Aggies have nine and need 10.

“To get to 10 wins in SEC play with two games to go, with all these guys coming together late, this is a great spot we’re in,” head coach Bucky McMillan said. “We have to take advantage of it by playing great.”

One team will leave with its at-large odds well above 90 percent, and the other will leave with plenty of work to do in the final week of the regular season.

Over at Blue Bell Park, bubbles are a sign of happiness and celebration to signify that the Aggies just scored another run.

At Reed Arena, bubbles usually mean the Aggies are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives.

Life on the bubble has become a regular and stressful occurrence for A&M hoops.

In 2022, the Ags worked their way up onto the bubble with a late winning streak, but it wasn’t enough as they were snubbed from the tournament.

In 2024, they rallied from a five-game losing streak and won two games in Nashville to survive the bubble and end up with a No. 9 seed.

Like clockwork, two years later, they are once again on the bubble.

This season has been a rollercoaster, with low expectations, a fast start to SEC play and a steady decline in the month of February that has put them back on the bubble.

“Our team has played awesome in SEC play,” McMillan said. “Anyone who doesn’t get that doesn’t see the totality of putting this team together two weeks late to the portal, battling through adversity and doing all we’ve done. This group should be saluted for that.”

Through all the adversity, A&M control its own destiny, and a win on Saturday puts the Ags one step closer to doing the improbable. Except they have to go through their bitter rival, who is also on the bubble.

Texas found a mid-season resurgence under Sean Miller, winning five games in a row and working its way up from the wrong side of the bubble to right next to the Aggies. Despite recent losses to Georgia and Florida, the Longhorns are playing some of their best basketball over the last month.

“I’m hoping they bring their best, we bring our best, and we’ll see who comes out on top,” said Zach Clemence, who is coming off a career-high 29 points on Wednesday.

Dailyn Swain is playing like a first-round NBA Draft pick and a first-team All-SEC player. Matas Vokietaitis continues to anchor the Texas front court, and Tramon Mark looks to terrorize the Aggies one last time.

Will Huffman, TexAgs

When the Aggies and Longhorns met earlier this season, Rylan Griffen tied for the team-lead with 17 points.

Beating a team twice in the same season is never easy.

“The hardest part is them knowing what we do with our press, plays, defensive schemes and offensive schemes,” Rashaun Agee said. “Great teams find a way. You have to do everything just a little extra. You put more fight into what you do.”

It wasn’t easy the first round in Austin, and it will be even more challenging on Saturday.

In the Jan. 17 meeting, Rylan Griffen exploded for 10 points in the first four minutes of the second half to finish with 17 in the period. Jacari Lane and Pop Isaacs hit massive 3-pointers down the stretch to hold off the Longhorn rally at Moody.

In a battle of veteran back courts, A&M’s key shot makers and ball handlers from the Quad 1A road win in Austin have to step up once again to outperform Texas’ guards.

“You cannot play these teams and hand them the ball,” McMillan said. “We’ve got to play aggressive and tight with the ball. They are capable of doing that. They just have to do it consistently.”

Starting guards Lane, Rubén Dominguez and Griffen are averaging just 11.5 points per game combined in A&M’s last two losses. A&M will only go as far as those three can take them, and there is no better time to start playing consistently well than right now.

March is all about guard play.

If the Aggies want to make it to March Madness, they’ll need more from their guards, and that starts on Saturday at Reed.