Houston

• Supply is up about 14% compared to last month and about 20% compared to this time last year.
• On the demand side, new mortgage applications are down to their lowest level in more than 20 years.
• Pricing is up about 15% compared to this time last year.

Quote:

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Helped by a 9.0 percent increase in new listings, months of inventory reached a 1.6-months supply, the highest level since October 2021 when it was 1.7 months. Housing inventory nationally stands at a 2.2-months supply, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A 6.0-months supply is traditionally considered a "balanced market," in which neither the buyer nor the seller has an advantage.

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https://www.har.com/content/newsroom

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/08/mortgage-demand-falls-to-the-lowest-level-in-22-years.html

So with cratering demand for loans, is it safe to assume the rates will follow?

On the demand side, new mortgage applications are down to their lowest level in more than 20 years.

As I understand it, mortgage rates are ultimately driven by MBS prices/investors. If the fed is both increasing rates generally and dumping MBS on the market this should lower prices/drive up yields across the board and particularly for MBS. Assuming I'm not spouting nonsense, I'd think that means MBS become less attractive which drives higher loan rates or lower quantity of originations.

It does seem counterintuitive from a consumer supply/demand standpoint though so not sure if that's 100% right...

https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news

CPI at the highest rate in 40 years

CPI - 8.6%
PPI - 10.8%

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

Bryan-College Station

• This market is still hot, driven by lack of supply
• Pricing for the overall market is up ~20% year over year
• College Station median pricing is up 29% year over year!
• Active listings in the overall market are actually UP, while listings in College Station are way down. This tells me that the College Station market should outperform the overall MSA in the coming months/years

https://www.bcsrealtor.com/index.php?src=gendocs&ref=AreaHousingStatistics&category=forConsumers&link=AreaHousingStatistics

North Texas In General:



Collin County



Dallas County



Denton County



Rockwall County



Tarrant County



Interesting Stories:

DFW Home listings up 41%

Here's what it takes to spend for a North Texas Home

Guadalupe County:



Comal County:



New Braunfels:

Quote:

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Dr. Adam Perdue, a research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, offered his insight into the current state of the market.
"The Austin region saw dangerously low levels of inventory, as low as 0.4 months of inventory in January 2021, so this slight increase in inventory and active listings point to the market beginning to normalize. While year over year price increases will continue to remain high, we project them to fall slightly lower than the long-term trend we've monitored over the past two years."
Perdue added that the affordability issues Austin is facing does not point to the housing market collapsing or a bubble bursting.
"The Austin housing market has experienced a multitude of factors that have influenced its current state, one of those being the high influx of companies and individuals migrating to the area both from within Texas and out-of-state, which has contributed to a strong and diverse economy attractive to people seeking opportunity. These migrations of individuals and companies will continue to happen, especially as Austin is relatively affordable compared to some out-of-state markets when it comes to owning a home and operating a business. Given this growth and continued increases in prices, the sales decline appears to be more likely a supply issue than a demand one and does not indicate a bubble bursting."

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Austin-Round Rock



Bastrop County



Caldwell County



City of Austin



Hays County



Travis County



Williamson County

HAR just released their first ever Rental Market Update on June 15th. I would imagine that this hold true across Texas, not just Houston:

Quote:

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HOUSTON (June 15, 2022) With housing inventory still near the lowest levels in history and mortgage rates continuing to climb, more and more homebuyers are turning to Houston's rental market for relief.

"We are seeing a surge of activity in Houston's rental market as prices of homes for sale and interest rates move beyond the reach of some consumers," said HAR Chair Jennifer Wauhob with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Gary Greene. "For now, there appears to be an adequate supply of rental properties throughout the Houston market, but that could change if demand grows."

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San Antonio

Compared to May 2021:

• SA area shows 2 percent decrease in sales
• 20 percent increase in price per square foot
• houses are staying on the market for an average of 27 days

Quote:

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Home sales in Bexar County saw an increase of 3.9 percent in May 2022. In total, 2,521 homes were sold in the area. That is a 3.9 percent decrease from May 2021. 101.9 percent of homes were sold for list price and the price per square foot increased to $178. The average home price for the area increased 17.6 percent to $372,347 and the median price increased 21.7 percent to $325,000. Other major counties in the state also reported an increase in median home prices. Travis County is sitting at $694,000, Harris Co. at $349,362, and Dallas Co. at $415,000 in median home prices.

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https://sabor.com/Market-Research-and-Statistics/Market-Statistics/San-Antonio-Area-Market-Report

Tyler

• Even though supply remains low, the ratio of sales price to list price is starting to ease, meaning demand is gradually decreasing
• Pricing is still up roughly 15% year over year

https://dds.terradatum.com/public/market-area-trends/greater-tyler-association-of-realtors/MTEvMjE=/?mlsId=TYLER&search=normal&timePeriod=mth&timePeriodValue=13&areaType=ALL&areaValueList=ALL&propertyTypeList=5,10,15,20,25,30,215,310,315,320,405,505,510,515,905&areaValuesDisplayText=ALL&propertyTypeDisplayText=Single%20Family%20Detached,Manufactured(Mobile)%20Home,Condominium,Garden%20Home,Town%20Home,Modular%20Home,Residential,Single%20Family%20Detached,Manufactured(Mobile)%20Home,Modular%20Home,Rural%20Acreage,Duplex,Fourplex,Triplex,Commercial&search_enable_flag=MQ==