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What happened to the College Station market?

37,030 Views | 134 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by akaggie
AggieAces06
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11:33a, 6/13/17
AG
It seems that the market in College Station has just tanked if your house is listed between $250k to $500k.

Lots of houses in the market with little to no movement. Now it looks like even the new builds are dropping their prices faster and faster.

What happened? Over build by new construction? Prices too high? Would the hiring freeze at A&M have this much impact?

I'm just curious for others opinions, and what they think it will take for the market to turn back around.
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CS78
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12:13p, 6/13/17
I would agree but put the number closer to $280k than 250k.

Why the problem though? Overbuilding of 2-story mcmansions crammed on to small lots. It was profitable for the builders at first but there are only so many buyers in the $300k+ range and they have overbuilt the supply.

The people like myself that bought before the price surge just cant see the value in trading up. Our house is 1900 sq/ft, built 2008, on a 11,000 sq/ft lot. We paid $204k for it in 2014. I'd love to add another 300-400 sq/ft but not at the cost of another $700 per month, and downgrading to a patio-home sized back yard. I look probably once a month and just cant find anything compelling.

I think the ratio of new build 2-stories is a large part of the problem too. If you were to separate out the data between 2-stories and single, I'd guess you would find a vastly different story. A good percentage of buyers, myself included, are simply not even going to walk in the door of one.
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Ragoo
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12:45p, 6/13/17
AG
I was thinking about this the other day. TAMU needs to continue growing the enrollment as it seems to be the only market mover in the local economy. Obviously, TAMU doesn't need to increase enrollment. That is tongue in cheek.
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aggiepaintrain
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3:55p, 6/13/17
AG
Over priced houses aren't selling.
hth
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dallasiteinsa02
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5:06p, 6/13/17
The math is off in some areas. Developers took lot prices up dramatically, with building cost increases, and builders trying to maintain their margins, the finished prices have skyrocketed. The demand is still there just not quite at the level of the new prices. Something will give between the three factors and we will see absorption returning to the high pace.
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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5:38p, 6/13/17
AG
Looking to buy in but waiting until the fall or longer if it's still tanking.

From what I gather there is a ton of apartments and beds/dorms that came on/are coming on soon that has the market over sat....
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AggieAces06
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11:07p, 6/13/17
AG
Dallasite - I completely agree about the lot prices. We were looking at the new Lick Creek Neighborhood, until we found out they wanted $95,000 for 1/3 acre lot and $112,000 for a 1/2 acre.

Rusty - I definitely think you will be able to find a good deal if you wait a little longer. Those who don't have to move are going to pull off the market, while those who need to get will continue to drop their prices.

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aggiepaintrain
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7:40a, 6/14/17
AG
smart money already cashed out of this inflated market

nothing will tank but a 10% adjustment is possible
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Diggity
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11:07a, 6/14/17
AG
the prices had gotten out of hand. I'm not surprised there's some push back.
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CM1999
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11:05a, 6/15/17
.
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AggiePlaya
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In reply to CM1999 • 11:11a, 6/15/17
AG
jen99ag said:
I blame all the realtors in the area. The realtors convinced all these home owners that their homes are worth more than the actually are, because the the 200K houses were going for more than 200K.

so those who live in 300-400k houses put them on the market for $600-700k. No one in their right mind would buy a house over 100K of tax appraisal! and now we have a ton of houses sitting on the market for months with no lookers. Really sad what the realtors have done here.
I don't think you realize how many homeowners insist on listing at prices higher than true market value...that would be no fault on the realtor.

But then someone would still blame the realtor for "wanting to list lower for a quick sale" LOL
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Diggity
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In reply to CM1999 • 11:15a, 6/15/17
AG
jen99ag said:
I blame all the realtors in the area. The realtors convinced all these home owners that their homes are worth more than the actually are, because the the 200K houses were going for more than 200K.

so those who live in 300-400k houses put them on the market for $600-700k. No one in their right mind would buy a house over 100K of tax appraisal! and now we have a ton of houses sitting on the market for months with no lookers. Really sad what the realtors have done here.
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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In reply to CM1999 • 11:19a, 6/15/17
AG
jen99ag said:
I blame all the realtors in the area. The realtors convinced all these home owners that their homes are worth more than the actually are, because the the 200K houses were going for more than 200K.

so those who live in 300-400k houses put them on the market for $600-700k. No one in their right mind would buy a house over 100K of tax appraisal! and now we have a ton of houses sitting on the market for months with no lookers. Really sad what the realtors have done here.


Someone bought my house for 200k over tax appraisal

That has nothing to do with anything
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MAS444
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11:33a, 6/15/17
AG
Yeah...I blame the realtors, too. And the liberals.
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drewser95
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In reply to Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno • 11:48a, 6/15/17
AG
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Someone bought my house for 200k over tax appraisal
Well clearly the buyers were not in their right mind at the time. I blame you. And both the listing agent and the buyers' agent, obviously. Really sad.
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SoTheySay
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12:00p, 6/15/17
S
So it's my fault that my seller wants to list for what their neighbors sold for or higher and then it's my fault when my seller gets that price or more? Noted.
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26.2
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In reply to Diggity • 12:30p, 6/15/17
Quote:
I blame all the realtors in the area. The realtors convinced all these home owners that their homes are worth more than the actually are, because the the 200K houses were going for more than 200K.

so those who live in 300-400k houses put them on the market for $600-700k. No one in their right mind would buy a house over 100K of tax appraisal! and now we have a ton of houses sitting on the market for months with no lookers. Really sad what the realtors have done here.


I am literally laughing out loud and can't stop. HELP!
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AggieAces06
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8:33p, 6/15/17
AG
I'm not sure you can blame the agents... they pull comps from recent sales and make recommendations.

I just think the market is either over saturated right now, or the buyers are just not there right now.

The other part of my original question that hasn't been discussed yet, is what will it take to turn things back around? Prices are dropping, but houses still aren't selling. So it has to be something other than the prices.
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The Fife
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In reply to aggiepaintrain • 5:40a, 6/16/17
aggiepaintrain said:
smart money already cashed out of this inflated market

nothing will tank but a 10% adjustment is possible
Feeling pretty good about selling all that I wanted to offload last fall and diversifying these days.
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ontheedge
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6:11a, 6/16/17
IMO part of the problem is not enough developed lots for the 200K and under market. Lots are developed for higher sq ftg and the pricing of the lots makes it such you have to build the larger house for the numbers to work. Builders need lots so we have the higher priced home saturation. There still are not enough lower priced homes so multiple offers line up when they come on the market and people are paying above asking to get the home. That may be starting to change but I haven't seen it yet.
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Gig Em5014
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7:16a, 6/16/17
AG
I've heard that the median home price in CS far exceeds the median income of CS. Therefore, lower priced homes get above asking while "median" priced homes sit because the majority of buyers can't afford what should be a highly sought after price range.

I believe the houses around campus are what has caused this. You can charge such a ridiculous amount for rent that those homes are now being sold for far over the actual home's value. Those numbers then show up when someone a few miles down the road is looking at comps. Single families are looking at their house rather than investors but they're listing in such a way as to capitalize on the market created by "campus" houses.
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Ragoo
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7:24a, 6/16/17
AG
No one wants to sell their house at a loss or where they bought it, so naturally the market goes up. And with any bubble it will burst.
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jmazz
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8:54a, 6/16/17
AG
I think the main factor right now is over supply in certain price points. We had a re-sale listing last summer/fall in Castlegate II that was in the mid $300k range. CGII is still being built out so there's new builds all over too. Between CGII and Estates of Creek Meadows (a close, comparable neighborhood to CGII) there was 40+ active listings that were all 'competition' to our listing. Needless to say, it didn't sell after 6 months on market. Listing terminated and they re-listed a few months later and it sat for 4 more months before finally getting an offer. So...10 months and still not officially sold/closed.

Similar things happening in the student rental market. Institutional players are in town now and some more local developments (A&M on campus stuff included) are sucking up students and leaving some of the single family stuff not filling up. I have some property back behind Northgate as you get into Bryan that for the past 3-4 years has been pre-leased in Jan-March for the upcoming August. This year I still have one house not pre-leased and two units in a 4-plex not yet pre-leased.

On the flip side, homes below $250k (or maybe even $280k like previously mentioned) are generally moving pretty quickly. Stuff below $200k is flying off the market as long as it's a decent place and priced appropriately. I have a HomeVestors business (We Buy Ugly Houses) and we're flipping a manufactured home on an acre up in NE Bryan and we got a cash offer in about 36 hours on market.

I don't know what it's going to take for that $300-600k market to pick back up but there's more developments in that price point slated in the near future so I guess those folks (developers/builders) aren't too worried.
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AggiePlaya
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9:19a, 6/16/17
AG
Unless we get an influx of high paying jobs in the area, the 300k and up market will soften further is my prediction. In order to afford 300k+ homes, families gotta be making higher level incomes, which is why the 200k an under moves faster because they can't afford more and they are underserved.

Excess supply and lower demand for higher price homes is not a good situation for sellers of higher priced homes.
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The Original AG 76
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In reply to AggiePlaya • 1:20p, 6/16/17
AG
AggiePlaya said:
Unless we get an influx of high paying jobs in the area, the 300k and up market will soften further is my prediction. In order to afford 300k+ homes, families gotta be making higher level incomes, which is why the 200k an under moves faster because they can't afford more and they are underserved.

Excess supply and lower demand for higher price homes is not a good situation for sellers of higher priced homes.
Regarding the 300k plus market..I still think that the biggest growth factor in this area will be retiring Former Students coming home. I talk to Ags my age and a tad younger all the time. They find out that I am retiring up here and all of em ask about what the market is like and express vey serious interest in moving here. Its all about coming home. What is the fly in the ointment is the temp ( I hope) Houston housing market due to the O&G crash and the high price per sq ft of home in BCS vs Houston. Selling a $500k home in Cy-Fair and finding out that the smaller " downsized" retirement home is 50% higher per sq ft here is a bit of a shock. Building costs in this town are horrendous when compared to suburban Houston and don't EVEN get m started on the insanity in the pries for remodeling...HORRIFIC !! The old Ags are coming but the Houston market needs to firm up and costs here need to settle a bit.
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Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno
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1:38p, 6/16/17
AG
Besides the university and a few jobs here and there. What exactly is holding up the 300-600k mkt? Too much supply... easy as that.
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CS78
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In reply to The Original AG 76 • 3:45p, 6/16/17
The Original AG 76 said:
The old Ags are coming but the Houston market needs to firm up and costs here need to settle a bit.
HAR: Houston home sales heat up in May
HOUSTON (Houston Association of Realtors) Area single-family home sales continued to outpace 2016's record performance last month, reports the Houston Association of Realtors.

The greatest sales gains were among homes priced at $750,000 and above (luxury segment), followed by homes in the $150,000 to $249,999 range. May marked the seventh consecutive month of rising sales in the luxury segment.

A total of 8,156 single-family homes sold in May versus 7,315 a year earlier, representing an 11.5 percent increase. Year-to-date, sales are 7.4 percent ahead of 2016's volume. New listings elevated inventory levels from a 3.6-months supply to 4.1 months, the highest in nearly five years.

The single-family home median price climbed 4.4 percent to $235,000, the area's highest median price of all time. The average price rose 4.3 percent to $302,362, the second highest average ever.
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jmazz
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4:55p, 6/16/17
AG
B/CS housing stats: http://www.bcsrealtor.com/index.php?submenu=areaHousingStatistics&src=gendocs&ref=AreaHousingStatistics&category=forConsumers
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FC12
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In reply to Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno • 9:07p, 6/16/17
Rustys-Beef-o-Reeno said:
Besides the university and a few jobs here and there. What exactly is holding up the 300-600k mkt? Too much supply... easy as that.


I would like to know the same thing...
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schwack schwack
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In reply to jmazz • 9:52a, 6/17/17
AG
Quote:
B/CS housing stats
Interesting data. Thank you for posting.
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752bro4
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6:30a, 6/19/17
AG
You wanna know how I know you don't know anything about real estate? You reference CAD values when talking about list price.
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Our-turn-to-rule
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8:20p, 6/19/17
AG
So, how do we use this in our tax protest hearings??
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Cancelled
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9:03p, 6/21/17
AG
Honestly, I never understood where so many people work to afford the monthly payment on a $500k note.
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The Original AG 76
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In reply to Cancelled • 11:02p, 6/21/17
AG
queso1 said:
Honestly, I never understood where so many people work to afford the monthly payment on a $500k note.
kinda bizarre statement . I hope you meant to say you don't understand why folks work to "afford" more than a a 25% of monthly take home note. The great curse of the middle class is the "dallas $30,000/yr millionaire" syndrome where folks commit such a monstrous percentage of their take home to cars and homes simply to keep up with the Jones's and impress the neighbors. A $500,000 mortgage for a person making $250,000/yr and living a sane life style is rational....A $500,000 mortgage on a $95,000 income is dallas stupid ...
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26.2
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In reply to ontheedge • 9:29a, 6/23/17
ontheedge said:
IMO part of the problem is not enough developed lots for the 200K and under market. Lots are developed for higher sq ftg and the pricing of the lots makes it such you have to build the larger house for the numbers to work. Builders need lots so we have the higher priced home saturation. There still are not enough lower priced homes so multiple offers line up when they come on the market and people are paying above asking to get the home. That may be starting to change but I haven't seen it yet.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-23/surging-prices-for-new-u-s-homes-suggest-tight-low-end-supply?srnd=157392052

Quote:
Record prices for new U.S. homes amid a sales pickup indicate the supply of houses may be tight at the lower end of the market, pinching first-time buyers, government data showed Friday.
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