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6,459 Views | 47 Replies | Last: 14 days ago by AgsMyDude
ReelAg6
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sts7049 said:

i want to dip my toes into these. thinking i should wait and see whether we get a rate hike though. is there a bond fund you like?
Ditto, where are you buying these?
MemphisAg1
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sts7049 said:

i want to dip my toes into these. thinking i should wait and see whether we get a rate hike though. is there a bond fund you like?

Here's a link to Vanguard that list their muni bond fund options VG munis

Ignore those that are state-specific, unless you pay state taxes there.

The more common ones you'll be interested in span a range of durations, from ultra-short, short, intermediate, and long term. There's also a hi-yield option.

The key thing is to understand the tradeoff between duration, interest rate risk, and return.

The higher the duration, the higher the interest payment, and also higher interest rate risk.

Interest rate risk simply means the value of the bond fund can decline if interest rates rise. The flip side of that is if they stay elevated from your purchase point, the value of interest will gradually increase too as the fund reinvests maturing bonds into new bonds with higher interest.

It's also true that if interest rates fall, the value of your bond fund goes up, although the interest payments over time will decline if rates stay lower than your purchase point.

The trick is to keep whatever money you're going to need in the near term in money market funds that have no interest rate risk and then spread the rest of your money across those different durations to align with your risk tolerance vs. reward. If you have money you won't need for 3 to 5 years, a long-term or hi-yield fund could generate a lot more cash for you than shorter duration. 1 to 3 years... some mix of shorter duration funds.

It's important to note this interest is tax-free on your federal return. So a 4% rate is equivalent to 5.6% before-tax if you're in the 24% tax bracket and also subject to the NIT tax of 3.8%.

I've been in these funds for years and sleep well at night. Munis have a little more protection than corporate bonds in that most of them are from taxing authorities. If they get into financial trouble, many of them can raise taxes to meet their debt obligations. The historical record says investment grade munis have a default rate of 0.1%, about 2 percentage points lower than investment grade corporate bonds. Plus, these funds are broadly diversified with hundreds if not thousands of loans per fund to a wide variety of issuers across a large range of issuer types (states, cities, counties, hospitals, water districts, etc.)

fullback44
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Bayou City said:

3 month T bills is what we do.

Yep… I have a lot of cash in BIL right now … waiting for the market to crash then I'm going all in, right now just making 3.82 % on about 60% of my cash… the rest is making about 15% or so right now. I don't need to be agressive but I will if this crashes down the road.. I think I'm average about 6 % … which I'm fine with
AggieInHouston
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MemphisAg1 said:

sts7049 said:

i want to dip my toes into these. thinking i should wait and see whether we get a rate hike though. is there a bond fund you like?

Here's a link to Vanguard that list their muni bond fund options VG munis

Ignore those that are state-specific, unless you pay state taxes there.

The more common ones you'll be interested in span a range of durations, from ultra-short, short, intermediate, and long term. There's also a hi-yield option.

The key thing is to understand the tradeoff between duration, interest rate risk, and return.

The higher the duration, the higher the interest payment, and also higher interest rate risk.

Interest rate risk simply means the value of the bond fund can decline if interest rates rise. The flip side of that is if they stay elevated from your purchase point, the value of interest will gradually increase too as the fund reinvests maturing bonds into new bonds with higher interest.

It's also true that if interest rates fall, the value of your bond fund goes up, although the interest payments over time will decline if rates stay lower than your purchase point.

The trick is to keep whatever money you're going to need in the near term in money market funds that have no interest rate risk and then spread the rest of your money across those different durations to align with your risk tolerance vs. reward. If you have money you won't need for 3 to 5 years, a long-term or hi-yield fund could generate a lot more cash for you than shorter duration. 1 to 3 years... some mix of shorter duration funds.

It's important to note this interest is tax-free on your federal return. So a 4% rate is equivalent to 5.6% before-tax if you're in the 24% tax bracket and also subject to the NIT tax of 3.8%.

I've been in these funds for years and sleep well at night. Munis have a little more protection than corporate bonds in that most of them are from taxing authorities. If they get into financial trouble, many of them can raise taxes to meet their debt obligations. The historical record says investment grade munis have a default rate of 0.1%, about 2 percentage points lower than investment grade corporate bonds. Plus, these funds are broadly diversified with hundreds if not thousands of loans per fund to a wide variety of issuers across a large range of issuer types (states, cities, counties, hospitals, water districts, etc.)



That's a good write-up. Now that we got the 25 bp hike yesterday, a few things I'd add.

I wouldn't wait for the Fed to finish hiking before buying munis. Expected moves tend to get priced in ahead of time, and longer muni yields don't move point-for-point with Fed funds anyway.

I'd also separate duration from yield. Longer duration means more rate sensitivity, not necessarily more income. A fund with a 7-year duration could lose roughly 7% if yields rose another percentage point, all else equal. And unlike an individual bond, a traditional bond fund doesn't have a set maturity date, so if you'll need the money in 3 to 5 years, I'd be careful with a long-duration fund. A bond ladder or defined-maturity muni ETF might fit better.

High-yield munis are a different animal too. You pick up some extra yield, but you're taking on real credit and liquidity risk to get it.

One tax wrinkle I run into with retirees: tax-exempt muni interest isn't subject to NIIT, but it still counts for Medicare IRMAA and when figuring how much of your Social Security is taxable. And generally, munis belong in taxable accounts; in an IRA you waste the exemption.
MemphisAg1
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AggieInHouston said:

I'd also separate duration from yield. Longer duration means more rate sensitivity, not necessarily more income. A fund with a 7-year duration could lose roughly 7% if yields rose another percentage point, all else equal. And unlike an individual bond, a traditional bond fund doesn't have a set maturity date, so if you'll need the money in 3 to 5 years, I'd be careful with a long-duration fund. A bond ladder or defined-maturity muni ETF might fit better.

One tax wrinkle I run into with retirees: tax-exempt muni interest isn't subject to NIIT, but it still counts for Medicare IRMAA and when figuring how much of your Social Security is taxable. And generally, munis belong in taxable accounts; in an IRA you waste the exemption.

Good additions to the discussion. A couple observations:

1. That 7% loss isn't really a loss if you don't sell the fund. Just like a stock that drops in value and keeps printing dividends while you wait for it to rebound. If you've got time on your side, you can minimize the practical impact of interest rate risk. Those monthly dividends actually increase with time as rates moves up. The key is trying not to be in a position where you have to sell if you're showing a loss on principal. Thus, the wisdom in spreading across a range of durations. Even then, I think about the net difference compared to other options... if I make a lot more dividends with a muni and maybe take a small haircut if I have to sell some, am I still better off on a net basis than if it was parked in a MM or HYSA? Plus, any potential loss can be reduced with a tax deduction.

2. Fully agree that munis belong in a taxable account only, not tax-deferred or exempt.
Joseph in Cypress
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I think it is ROCY and ROCQ that are new ETF's for jpm focused on non-qual money that was going into JEPI and JEPQ. Might want to check those out. Also check out their HELO.

Joseph George '92
RightWingConspirator
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YouBet
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Quote:

Now that I know everything I post here is scrutinized, let me come clean and say my salary is not $400 per year but $370 per year depending on bonus. For that matter, my net worth isn't quite $5MM but $4.8MM. I spoke in round figures but that appears to be a dangerous practice.


You...you lied to us??

Here is the unfortunate outcome of this - because you haven't actually cleared the $5m hurdle I will have to revoke posting privileges on our other real millionaires thread.

DM me when you get back above the minimum....if you do.
RightWingConspirator
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Diggity
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RightWingConspirator said:

Wrighty said:

RightWingConspirator said:

We keep about two years of living expenses in TMCXX. Yes, that may be a bit much but it's overall a small portion of our net worth (less than one percent of our net worth).

lol ok. if you have living expenses of 80,000, that means you have 160,000 and that overall net worth of $16,000,000. never change texags.


We keep about $240k in cash but it grows. Our net worth is about $5MM which today is about 4 or 5 percent of our net worth. Like I said, it grows and perhaps a bit much to carry in cash but it's our rainy day fund. It has grown by about $15k just this month as I use it to funnel surplus out of my checking into TMCXX. This month was an anomaly as my company paid a special bonus due to a boost in earnings (thanks, Iran), but I normally only transfer about $3-$4k/month. My living expenses are around $120k/year as best as I can tell.

Not sure where I came up with the less than one percent figure. That may have been the case at one point in time and I just assumed it still applied but it does not apply today. Today with about $240k in cash it's about 4 to 5 percent of our net worth. My apologies for the bad info.

Ive been on here for longer than I care to admit, but at no point have I ever cared about the collective opinion of TexAgs enough to lie about anything in here. I'm good if you don't believe me.

Now that I know everything I post here is scrutinized, let me come clean and say my salary is not $400 per year but $370 per year depending on bonus. For that matter, my net worth isn't quite $5MM but $4.8MM. I spoke in round figures but that appears to be a dangerous practice.

to be fair...he was apparently correct to not believe you. don't take it personally.
RightWingConspirator
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Ag CPA
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This is TexAgs, everyone's a millionaire.
AgsMyDude
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FishrCoAg said:

or since you are already in it, you could have answered the question in the time it took to type out a smart ass reply



Plus, you know, AI is often wrong
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