Commercial Loan rate question

BoDog

Joined: Aug 6, 2012

Posts: 3,351

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

11:24a, 6/19/26

AG

I have a commercial loan set to expire/reamortize at year end. I know this may be a crystal ball type question, but what is the prevailing consensus of what rates will do between now and December? Should I look into starting that process soon or just wait until late Q4? TIA!

Gaeilge

Joined: Aug 26, 2024

Posts: 5,482

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to BoDog • 12:08p, 6/19/26

Expect the Fed to initiate 25-50bps increase before EOY. My guess would be 25bps in December, to get past the midterm elections.

Warsh's new reporting method will make it hard to predict the when of anything.

1 edit

cgh1999

Joined: Nov 8, 2000

Posts: 18,386

User Profile

Private Message

Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

12:55p, 6/19/26

AG

I was a commercial banker for 22 years and I'm now in private real estate lending. My advice would be to start immediately. You don't know what will happen in the future or how long the process will take. If rates go up, you'll be glad you locked in now if rates go down materially, there's nothing that would prevent you from refinancing.

If you're not happy with what the terms look like, you're not under the gun of a maturity to make a decision. Do you have time to shop. You also don't wanna be messing with that in Q4. Holidays, end of year schedules, etc. all have a way of making deals take longer than necessary.

5

1 edit

vette

Joined: Apr 19, 2007

Posts: 24,881

User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

3:31p, 6/20/26

AG

If anyone says they know what's going to happen with rates between now and end of year, they are full of it… Fed funds, treasury yields, etc

1

1 edit

Heineken-Ashi

Joined: Jul 15, 2022

Posts: 10,188

User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring

How long do you want to ignore this user?

24 hours One week Permanently Cancel

In reply to cgh1999 • 8:39p, 6/20/26

cgh1999 said:
I was a commercial banker for 22 years and I'm now in private real estate lending. My advice would be to start immediately. You don't know what will happen in the future or how long the process will take. If rates go up, you'll be glad you locked in now if rates go down materially, there's nothing that would prevent you from refinancing.

If you're not happy with what the terms look like, you're not under the gun of a maturity to make a decision. Do you have time to shop. You also don't wanna be messing with that in Q4. Holidays, end of year schedules, etc. all have a way of making deals take longer than necessary.

This is probably your best answer. I'm someone that DOES attempt to prognosticate where rates are going. But in such a short timeframe, there's a lot of noise in the data and it's anyone's guess. Get the process started.

1