Here's some more of his banger takes from the same panel https://t.co/xTJbN3BO1x pic.twitter.com/9WS60SqZEq

— Ken Kirtland IV (@KenKirtland17) June 13, 2026

lb3 said:

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Waffledynamics said:

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Is this actually going to be a good buy, or is it just hype? Can't decide if it would be a bad idea to buy or not.

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If TerraFab comes online in the next 5 years, SPCX will pass Nvidia and TSMC in global importance regardless of whether we have data centers in space. At some point in the next 5 years I expect SpaceX will acquire Tesla. SpaceX's AI role and Tesla's robotics fit too well together not to merge.

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This is a good point. Rain or shine, Musk's companies have become vitally important to our national security.

JTA1029 said:

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Damn that must be where I messed up. I had signed up for 100 shares but didnt "affirm" my interest.

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I literally could not navigate through the seven prospectus on fidelity's app in order to put in my order for the IPO. I was listening to CNBC minutes before the stock went live and they were talking about the expected value. Put in my limit trade. 10 minutes later got a confirmation message. So that's META and now SPCX I purchased on ipo day with limit buys.

SPCX down 6% today and has gone down 20% since last Wednesday.

Anyone else picking up more shares?

I am probably mistaken but I think funds that track the "CRSP US Total Market Index" like VTI have to start buying SPCX after the close today so I am surprised to see this drop.

I bought SSPC last Thursday, and decided to close it out at a 24% gain a few minutes ago. I have plenty of access to SPCX through ETFs and mutual funds, so wanted to hedge a bit on the heated IPO. Worked out!

Going digging... Here's what Morningstar has to say about the Indexes...

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds-are-adapting

Quote:

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S&P
The S&P tweaked the float criteria for its suite of broad US indexes on June 4 but notably abstained from loosening its long-standing profitability requirementa rule that requires new additions to have positive earnings in the most recent quarter and the most recent four quarters combined. This prevents SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, or other IPOs from being added to the S&P 500 roster for at least one year.
Another Musk company, Tesla TSLA, failed this screen for over a decade before being added to the bogy in 2020.
Once any of these firms satisfy this "financial viability" requirement, they don't necessarily have to float at least 10% of shares. They'd be added once the stock's float-adjusted market capitalization is greater than or equal to 10% of the 100th largest company in the S&P Total Market Index, ranked by total market capitalization.
Regardless of when SpaceX is added, trillions of dollars of index fund assets tied to the S&P 500 will rebalance. Further, the myriad active managers who maintain some mandate to that index may also have to adjust their portfolios to reflect the change in benchmark composition.

CRSP
The Center for Research in Securities Prices, acquired by Morningstar in early 2026, was one of the only index providers that had previously admitted IPOs ahead of any scheduled rebalance, and it remains the case this year. CRSP allows new IPOs into its suite of market indexes after five trading days if they pass the index's eligibility and investability screens.
The eligibility screen was tweaked earlier this year to allow low-float companies into its benchmarks. Fast-track IPOs now must have at least 10% float or have a float-adjusted market that's at least 0.005% of the "index-eligible universe"roughly $3.3 billion as of March 2026. CRSP only applied the 10% float test for fast-track IPOs previously.
Since over $3 trillion in Vanguard index funds track CRSP US market indexes, eligibility and investability screens are crucial. Quickly adding new IPOs to an index allows that index to better reflect its target market, but the point is moot if funds aren't able to efficiently buy or sell the newly public stock.

Russell
Russell's new fast-entry rule allows large IPOs into its suite of market indexes after five trading daysthe same as CRSP. It only applies to sizable IPOs with float-adjusted market caps that rank in the top 500. This cutoff would be roughly $17.5 billion as of May 31.
Previously, its US equity indexes, including the Russell 1000, granted IPOs entry at each scheduled quarterly rebalance but only if the stock also met certain other eligibility requirements, like a 5% minimum float and 5% minimum public voting share. The recent update does not require a minimum float or voting percentage for fast-track IPOs.

MSCI
MSCI has not changed its rules. MSCI's US market indexes admit IPOs after 10 trading days as long as they're at least 80% larger than MSCI's minimum size requirement. This policy has been in place since 2007. On May 31, 2026, the minimum size requirement was about $13 billion, making fast-track IPOs eligible with float-adjusted market caps above roughly $23.4 billion.
Fast-track IPOs do not need to meet free-float requirements or a liquidity screen.

Nasdaq
Nasdaq's new rule clearly targets only the largest IPOs and even favors such offerings in its newly modified weighting scheme.
For fast entry, a newly public company must rank within the top 40 holdings of the Nasdaq-100 Index by total market cap. This meant a total market cap of roughly $149.4 billion on May 31. SpaceX easily qualifies.
Nasdaq waits 15 trading days before adding any IPO to its flagship index to avoid possible early volatility in those stocks' prices. This makes it easier and cheaper for index funds to implement any adjustment. After 15 days, it scales a large IPO's float-adjusted weight up by 3 times until its float ratio reaches 33.3%. This multiplier is down from the 5 times weighting adjustment considered in the original proposal, but it's still somewhat arbitrary and gives more prominence than might be deserved to a low-float company. This slightly distorts the total picture since the rest of the portfolio is weighted by float-adjusted market cap.
With hundreds of billions pegged to the Nasdaq-100 Index, scaling up the weight of a low-float company triples the amount of SpaceX stock that Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ and other Nasdaq-linked index funds will have to buy. In isolation, these purchases should amount to only a few percentage points of the company's available shares, but across dozens of other index funds, it adds up.

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The impact of the low float!!! I'm seeing estimates of roughly 4% -- 7%

Quote:

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Float Will Determine SpaceX's Market Impact
A total market capitalization of $2.11 trillion at the end of its first trading day makes SpaceX the seventh largest public company in the world. However, it will not immediately be one of the largest holdings in broad index funds. Its puny initial float limits its immediate size in many index funds. The company's float-adjusted market cap of nearly $90 billion places it outside the top 100 and is expected to collect less than 0.20% of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI once added.

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I finally figured out how to turn off Fidelity IPO alert e-mails.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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Going digging... Here's what Morningstar has to say about the Indexes...

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/spacex-ipo-how-index-funds-are-adapting

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Since Friday wasn't a trading day I think that means the buying for the two indexes that set the time to 5 days would have been yesterday or today. I'm not sure if its added after 5 trading days or on the 5th trading day... Or if last Monday counted as a full trading day since it didn't start trading untill mid day.

Tesla filed a trademark for "MegaPod", a conceptual modular data center that can be placed where they already have high voltage connections and land leases (Supercharger stations, Megapack battery storage, etc.). A nice hangout spot for AI bots across the country to receive their instructions to eliminate all humans

NASDAQ 100 will be adding SPCX to the index on Tuesday July 7.

That will very likely create fairly significant buying pressure with their current low float.

I don 't necessarily disagree with changing the rules for these very large IPO's (we can debate market conditions that are leading companies to stay private longer elsewhere). But I do think that this will create a longer "break-in" period as the market works to truly determine SPCX true market value. Once insiders start to unlock I suspect the VC folks that are in will be looking to exit fairly quickly as publicly tradeable stock isn't the game for VC folks. They won't be able to unload it overnight, but they will create volume in the back half of the year.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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NASDAQ 100 will be adding SPCX to the index on Tuesday July 7.

That will very likely create fairly significant buying pressure with their current low float.

I don 't necessarily disagree with changing the rules for these very large IPO's (we can debate market conditions that are leading companies to stay private longer elsewhere). But I do think that this will create a longer "break-in" period as the market works to truly determine SPCX true market value. Once insiders start to unlock I suspect the VC folks that are in will be looking to exit fairly quickly as publicly tradeable stock isn't the game for VC folks. They won't be able to unload it overnight, but they will create volume in the back half of the year.

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Please share your view.

SPCX
I have been considering a MOC at the closing cross on July 6th. Looking to re-buy in 5-7 weeks after the drip down from the unload.

I don't have a firm price target, but personally I wouldn't mind getting in at $150 or possibly a bit lower.
Like I said next week I think that Index inclusion will create buying pressure as the funds that track the Nasdaq 100 are forced to rebalance. After that we'll see selling pressure as the insider shares begin to unlock following release of 2Q earnings. The timelines for that have been published, I believe in an S1. It's my understanding that the VC firms will look to start unloading their common stock positions. They aren't long term investment firms. A successful and profitable IPO was always their goal so it's time for them to take their profits and move on.

The key though is that the number and timing of the unloading of VC shares is completely unknown to the general public. I think there's some general idea, but that's about it. If it's a sizeable percentage though I think it could provide downward price movement. I'm not suggesting they'd crash the stock, but it will face sell side pressure if enough firms are unloading.

Kenneth_2003 said:

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I don't have a firm price target, but personally I wouldn't mind getting in at $150 or possibly a bit lower.
Like I said next week I think that Index inclusion will create buying pressure as the funds that track the Nasdaq 100 are forced to rebalance. After that we'll see selling pressure as the insider shares begin to unlock following release of 2Q earnings. The timelines for that have been published, I believe in an S1. It's my understanding that the VC firms will look to start unloading their common stock positions. They aren't long term investment firms. A successful and profitable IPO was always their goal so it's time for them to take their profits and move on.

The key though is that the number and timing of the unloading of VC shares is completely unknown to the general public. I think there's some general idea, but that's about it. If it's a sizeable percentage though I think it could provide downward price movement. I'm not suggesting they'd crash the stock, but it will face sell side pressure if enough firms are unloading.

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Inclusion and rebalance by etf's and index funds will begin at the close cross at 4 pm on July 6th. This moc and loc should rise SPCX to approximately in the $165-$170 range.

Hedge funds and retail investors will begin dumping the stock on July 7th to profit harvest. SPCX should experience a slow bleed down over the next 4-7 weeks. Analyst are projecting a floor at that time between $125-$135.

At that time, I would execute a re-buy. If I execute at 95% efficientcy, I would increase my spcx shares by +400 shares.

S&P 500 Inclusion in June 2027 will present the same opportunity, but with the possibility of greater impact.

I just placed a bet on success in this afternoon's test. Bought the rest of the original 188 I had asked for in the IPO (got 15) at 131.04. Planning a very long hold, so will ride out any dips from insider sales down the line unless something really big changes.

tk for tu juan said:

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Tesla filed a trademark for "MegaPod", a conceptual modular data center that can be placed where they already have high voltage connections and land leases (Supercharger stations, Megapack battery storage, etc.). A nice hangout spot for AI bots across the country to receive their instructions to eliminate all humans

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Man, this crossed my mind a few times.

hph6203 said:

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hph6203 said:

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Will over time approach the cost of terrestrial construction while absolutely obliterating it from a speed of deployment perspective.

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Re-read what I wrote. Re-read your first sentence again. Ask yourself "Am I addressing their claim?" If you answer yes, then proceed to first step in this paragraph and repeat until you answer no.


You did a lot of calculations for a launch vehicle that they are absolutely, positively, not going to launch orbital compute on and ignoring adaptable variables that can be adjusted to limit cost.


Watch this:



Read: This

Debunking the Cooling Constraint for Space Data Centers ❄️🛰️

We tackled one of the most persistent objections to orbital compute: “How do you cool data centers in space?”

Using first-principles and Starlink V3 scaling (20kW > 100kW) as a reference, we show the cooling problem… pic.twitter.com/wSSAF6RA46

— Vlad Saigau (@VladSaigau) December 17, 2025

You are under the false impression that the limit on terrestrial data centers is the cost to deploy them rather than the speed of acceptance by society. NIMBYism is a powerful effect that can raise costs dramatically.

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Sorry, not sorry, for dragging up an old topic, but I came across this today.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/07/how-hard-is-it-to-build-orbital-data-centers-actually/

Seems that smarter people than I did the math and came to the same conclusions.

You can build a datacenter in space. It is just going to cost a lot more than on Earth.

~egon

Dr. Doctor said:

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hph6203 said:

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hph6203 said:

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Will over time approach the cost of terrestrial construction while absolutely obliterating it from a speed of deployment perspective.

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Re-read what I wrote. Re-read your first sentence again. Ask yourself "Am I addressing their claim?" If you answer yes, then proceed to first step in this paragraph and repeat until you answer no.


You did a lot of calculations for a launch vehicle that they are absolutely, positively, not going to launch orbital compute on and ignoring adaptable variables that can be adjusted to limit cost.


Watch this:



Read: This

Debunking the Cooling Constraint for Space Data Centers ❄️🛰️

We tackled one of the most persistent objections to orbital compute: “How do you cool data centers in space?”

Using first-principles and Starlink V3 scaling (20kW > 100kW) as a reference, we show the cooling problem… pic.twitter.com/wSSAF6RA46

— Vlad Saigau (@VladSaigau) December 17, 2025

You are under the false impression that the limit on terrestrial data centers is the cost to deploy them rather than the speed of acceptance by society. NIMBYism is a powerful effect that can raise costs dramatically.

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Sorry, not sorry, for dragging up an old topic, but I came across this today.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/07/how-hard-is-it-to-build-orbital-data-centers-actually/

Seems that smarter people than I did the math and came to the same conclusions.

You can build a datacenter in space. It is just going to cost a lot more than on Earth.

~egon

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Initial construction yes, but what about long term operating costs? Once you launch it, you don't have to pay some guy to sit on site 24/7 and babysit anything. You can pay one guy to sit at a terminal and babysit a thousand of them at the same time. No property taxes, no water bill, no charge for electricity. Capex may be high, but I bet you get it back in lower operating cost pretty quick.

What is the current cost per GW data center being constructed? Are the costs going up or down? Whats the price Anthropic is paying to SpaceX per year at a 1 GW capacity equivalency?


You are solving for the wrong problem, not understanding actual circumstances as they exist, over estimating the cost of the 17,000th Starship launch, overestimating the cost of the 1,000,000th satellite built and underestimating the cost of the 100th GW of terrestrial compute.


Eric Berger is great. He would not be on the list of people I ask about what a 1 million satellite constellation would cost. The guy I would ask is the guy presently pursuing it.

"It's way cheaper to build on Earth."

Our message is simple: Build in New York, invest in New Yorkers. 

That's the standard we're setting for the next generation of data center development. pic.twitter.com/BsSMGEuzty

— Governor Kathy Hochul (@GovKathyHochul) July 17, 2026

Is this a parody account?

This is the state where AOC took credit for killing Amazon 2HQ that would have added thousands of high paying jobs. There is no way they will approve a data center (not to mention the high cost of electricity in NY)

It is not a uniquely popular sentiment for New York. That she did it when it's not a material concern to her voters is relevant, because they are the opinions of voters in states where they are actually being built in volume. It's not "this happened in New York" it's "a governor in the United States believed this would boost her popularity."

Greg Abbott went from "if you don't want them, we'll take them" to "we must regulate them so they do not harm our communities" in about 6 months because of voter opinion. They are not popular infrastructure builds.


Current estimated cost of construction of a 1 GW data center is ~$40 billion when they build their own power. Those prices are likely to rise as restrictions get inflicted on those projects across the country. Anthropic is contracted with SpaceX to rent 1GW of capacity on an annual rate at the same expense as it would cost to green field build a 1 GW data center. Why would they spend that much to rent what they could build? Because the rate of construction is not matching the rate of demand. That will get worse over the next 5 years.



Space based compute is not solving for cost to deploy in the near term. It is solving for speed of deployment.

SPCX gonna drop below $100?

I'm buying some for the first time today and probably waiting till November when most insider shares are unlocked to buy some more

Probs more like 85 maybe lower

Unlocks coming up from Aug through year end. Then cursor unlocks early next year

What is expected to happen once more shares unlock?

Slowly building a position to hand over to the kids in 15 years.....I don't need it, so just stashing away cheap shares.

Against my own advice, bought my first shares today on the drop. Plan to wait out some of the lockup to get some more closer to $100.

Big Baccala said:

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Slowly building a position to hand over to the kids in 15 years.....I don't need it, so just stashing away cheap shares.

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"cheap"

LOL

I bought the IPO and then sold once the price dropped back to the IPO price; seemed obvious it was going to keep falling. I have to admit I'm surprised the price fell so fast to where it is today; I overestimated Musk fan boy support.

flashplayer said:

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Against my own advice, bought my first shares today on the drop. Plan to wait out some of the lockup to get some more closer to $100.

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I've love to be a fly on the wall when you sit down and give yourself advice.

Bookmark and let's check in again in 5 years.