Will we see a downturn in the market when SCOTUS rejects tariffs?

2,220 Views | 13 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by themissinglink
jamey
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8:00a, 10/21/25
AG
Maybe they dont reject all but some chunk of Trumps tariffs?


I think market sentiment on tariffs have changed. They were really bad in April then slowly over the months have been accepted, the impact has been a slow trickle to the consumer and ultimately we need the money to offset some of congress outrageous spending habit.

Too top it off, what's been figured out will be thrown into chaos once again we go back to the drawing board on what specifically SCOTUS allows and what has to go thru congress

These guys are saying late Nov to early Dec SCOTUS decision


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YouBet
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8:24a, 10/21/25
AG
Who knows but you are probably right that we will see some decrease in the market. It's a fickle thing, the market.

Trump did tariffs partially because it was one of the few levers he could pull since this country has decided not to cut spending. It was one of his ways to outgrow spending. Was always going to be a questionable way to get there.

Obviously, it would be better if we just cut spending but that won't happen.
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jamey
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9:42a, 10/21/25
AG
What would be good would be to put the 300 to 500 billion in tariffs on debt principle AND simultaneously cut spending.


The tariff money will end up just being a defacto raising of the debt ceiling and absorbed by increases in spending. In other words a useless tax on business and consumers. And thats assuming trump does turn it into stimulus to boost inflation again


I was excited we might be able to work our way out of this but Rs and Ds just can't be more financially responsible than a bunch of teenagers dropped off at the mall with a credit card and no rules
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Ag CPA
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2:35p, 10/24/25
AG
10-year Treasury rates will go up which should make the market go down but who knows these days, market seem able to ignore anything that is thrown at it.
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LOYAL AG
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5:20p, 10/24/25
AG
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.
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YouBet
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 6:50p, 10/24/25
AG
LOYAL AG said:
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.


Yeah, I think this is what the unspoken goal is in Washington. Gives them an easy out while letting them spend us to Bolivia in the meantime.

Question will be...will they actually let that happen?
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to YouBet • 9:08p, 10/24/25
AG
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.


Yeah, I think this is what the unspoken goal is in Washington. Gives them an easy out while letting them spend us to Bolivia in the meantime.

Question will be...will they actually let that happen?


Hard to say. We don't really know how much spending gets to the supposed beneficiaries of the program and how much is stolen by political entities. We found out this week that as much as $1B has been stolen by NGO affiliated with housing programs in Minnesota. I fear we look up in 20 years and the boomers are gone and spending as a percent of GDP hasn't changed.
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YouBet
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 10:48a, 10/25/25
AG
LOYAL AG said:
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.


Yeah, I think this is what the unspoken goal is in Washington. Gives them an easy out while letting them spend us to Bolivia in the meantime.

Question will be...will they actually let that happen?


Hard to say. We don't really know how much spending gets to the supposed beneficiaries of the program and how much is stolen by political entities. We found out this week that as much as $1B has been stolen by NGO affiliated with housing programs in Minnesota. I fear we look up in 20 years and the boomers are gone and spending as a percent of GDP hasn't changed.


The level of corruption in all of government spending is, I'm sure, mind-blowing. Could likely cut 50% of it and no one would know any different when it comes to services rendered.

There is so much grift in the system we probably can't comprehend it all.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to YouBet • 12:31p, 10/25/25
AG
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.


Yeah, I think this is what the unspoken goal is in Washington. Gives them an easy out while letting them spend us to Bolivia in the meantime.

Question will be...will they actually let that happen?


Hard to say. We don't really know how much spending gets to the supposed beneficiaries of the program and how much is stolen by political entities. We found out this week that as much as $1B has been stolen by NGO affiliated with housing programs in Minnesota. I fear we look up in 20 years and the boomers are gone and spending as a percent of GDP hasn't changed.


The level of corruption in all of government spending is, I'm sure, mind-blowing. Could likely cut 50% of it and no one would know any different when it comes to services rendered.

There is so much grift in the system we probably can't comprehend it all.


Exactly. I'm at the point where if you think government is part of the solution I assume you're ok with corruption. The evidence is everywhere all the time so either you know and don't care or you don't know which means you aren't paying attention.
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Gordo14
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 4:17p, 10/25/25
LOYAL AG said:
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.


Yeah, I think this is what the unspoken goal is in Washington. Gives them an easy out while letting them spend us to Bolivia in the meantime.

Question will be...will they actually let that happen?


Hard to say. We don't really know how much spending gets to the supposed beneficiaries of the program and how much is stolen by political entities. We found out this week that as much as $1B has been stolen by NGO affiliated with housing programs in Minnesota. I fear we look up in 20 years and the boomers are gone and spending as a percent of GDP hasn't changed.


The level of corruption in all of government spending is, I'm sure, mind-blowing. Could likely cut 50% of it and no one would know any different when it comes to services rendered.

There is so much grift in the system we probably can't comprehend it all.


Exactly. I'm at the point where if you think government is part of the solution I assume you're ok with corruption. The evidence is everywhere all the time so either you know and don't care or you don't know which means you aren't paying attention.


Well the good news is that tariffs dramatically increase government involvement in the economy and as a result enhance corruption. You want a tariff exemption - I'm sure there's a way. Just bring something gold, grab a mic, buy some Trump coin, and "donate" money.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to Gordo14 • 5:11p, 10/25/25
AG
Gordo14 said:
LOYAL AG said:
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
YouBet said:
LOYAL AG said:
We aren't cutting spending until the boomers die off. That's a built in spending cut but we aren't going to do it proactively.


Yeah, I think this is what the unspoken goal is in Washington. Gives them an easy out while letting them spend us to Bolivia in the meantime.

Question will be...will they actually let that happen?


Hard to say. We don't really know how much spending gets to the supposed beneficiaries of the program and how much is stolen by political entities. We found out this week that as much as $1B has been stolen by NGO affiliated with housing programs in Minnesota. I fear we look up in 20 years and the boomers are gone and spending as a percent of GDP hasn't changed.


The level of corruption in all of government spending is, I'm sure, mind-blowing. Could likely cut 50% of it and no one would know any different when it comes to services rendered.

There is so much grift in the system we probably can't comprehend it all.


Exactly. I'm at the point where if you think government is part of the solution I assume you're ok with corruption. The evidence is everywhere all the time so either you know and don't care or you don't know which means you aren't paying attention.


Well the good news is that tariffs dramatically increase government involvement in the economy and as a result enhance corruption. You want a tariff exemption - I'm sure there's a way. Just bring something gold, grab a mic, buy some Trump coin, and "donate" money.


Ok? Feel better? I've said since 2016 that in the mythical corruption trial of Hillary Clinton he is the state's star witness who testifies about paying bribes to avoid prosecution. From where I sit the only difference between him and the past three Democrat presidents is that he got rich outside of elected office. All three of them did nothing in the private sector and all of them are stupidly rich. at least Trump has done something outside of winning elections.
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JSKolache
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11:30p, 10/25/25
AG
The market hates tariffs as a general rule.
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YouBet
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In reply to JSKolache • 8:45a, 10/26/25
AG
JSKolache said:
The market hates tariffs as a general rule.


Guess not these tariffs. Granted, the market at this point in its evolution seems to be wholly disconnected from the rest of reality.
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themissinglink
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7:50p, 11/5/25
AG
It sounded like a rough day for the Trump admin, but you never can fully say with SCOTUS.

Betting markets (PredictIt, Kalshi, Polymarket) go from giving Trump a 40-50% chance of prevailing before the argument to a 20-30% chance after.
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