I sold every stock I own but one and went to cash

2,127 Views | 27 Replies | Last: 9 min ago by TTUArmy
knoxtom
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3:18p, 2/27/25
On my regular trading account I just sold every stock and went to cash. I may switch the entire 401k to bond funds as well.

Simple as this... I do not see how the stock market will be higher in 6 months or a year than it is now. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it will happen




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Tumble Weed
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3:22p, 2/27/25
I posted last week (2/21) on the stock trading thread that I though the top for the year was in for the S&P 500.

I bought GLD, which has also dropped in value since I bought it. I expect gold to perform better than the S&P 500 this year.
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knoxtom
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3:33p, 2/27/25
I am looking at avocado and chicken farms.

Probably have to surround them with prison fence and make sure they have a great well for the upcoming food wars.
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AgOutsideAustin
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3:33p, 2/27/25
AG
Was your one stock you kept Nvidia ?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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3:38p, 2/27/25
AG
So we rally to new ATHs by the spring.

Thanks OP!
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TxAG#2011
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3:41p, 2/27/25
You must be break even because if you have a high tax liability that would be very dumb
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knoxtom
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In reply to AgOutsideAustin • 3:53p, 2/27/25
AgOutsideAustin said:
Was your one stock you kept Nvidia ?

No, they reported yesterday and even with great numbers they fell today.

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Ag CPA
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3:58p, 2/27/25
AG
I hear you, I started selling at the end of 24 and am probably 60% cash right now, after the election things were starting to get silly again.
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AgEng06
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In reply to knoxtom • 4:18p, 2/27/25
AG
knoxtom said:
AgOutsideAustin said:
Was your one stock you kept Nvidia ?

No, they reported yesterday and even with great numbers they fell today.

It's WWR, isn't it?
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knoxtom
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4:33p, 2/27/25
Soundhound

Pretty confident they were going to have great numbers, knew today would be big once announced. probably sell it later tonight. Up 7.5% as I type, this is a VERY volatile stock. Should sell at $15, could just as easily be $4 in a month. I will come back to them, just taking a break during these somewhat dire times for stocks.

I almost sold it at $24 a share 2 months ago but my neighbor talked me into waiting. It was not good advice.


The trigger that told me I had to sell it all was NVIDIA. There is absolutely no reason the COMPANY should be falling, which means that people are losing faith in the economy as a whole. NVIDIA leads the pack. I am an expectationalist so I watch for philosophical moves and overall trust. This was a strong trigger. NVIDIA should have reassured, but the other signs overwhelmed it.


For the dude who said selling is a bad idea when in a high bracket I respond that I would rather pay 20-35% of my winnings than watch something (or everything) fall 30-50%.
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khkman22
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In reply to TxAG#2011 • 5:32p, 2/27/25
AG
TxAG#2011 said:
You must be break even because if you have a high tax liability that would be very dumb
Sure hope he didn't sell ARM and RKLB.
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knoxtom
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5:46p, 2/27/25
And I am out. Made an extra 9% on that last trade by waiting for the response to earnings, but it has stopped and I am done for a few months... or maybe longer. At the very best markets will be flat under Trump2 and I can make WAY more investing in the company or in hard assets.

It is Scary. I have been invested a LOOONNNGGG time and to sell the bitcoin, BerkB and VOO is frightening.


It all comes down to this. I might miss out of some slow growth and if this stuff stabilizes a bit I can move right back in. But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop. I don't want to risk that chance so I am taking the conservative route. I make 4.5% annually on idle money... do you all REALLY think the markets will rise 4.5% with the policies being thrown out there?


So long and thanks for all the fish.



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knoxtom
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In reply to khkman22 • 5:48p, 2/27/25
khkman22 said:
TxAG#2011 said:
You must be break even because if you have a high tax liability that would be very dumb
Sure hope he didn't sell ARM and RKLB.


The first is down 20% in the last month and the second is down 30%. Why would anyone still be holding these losers?

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YouBet
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In reply to Tumble Weed • 7:50p, 2/27/25
AG
Tumble Weed said:
I posted last week (2/21) on the stock trading thread that I though the top for the year was in for the S&P 500.

I bought GLD, which has also dropped in value since I bought it. I expect gold to perform better than the S&P 500 this year.
Bold but maybe this will be the year. History is against you but then past performance does not dictate the future.

Since Jan 2010, the S&P 500 has a total return of 603% while gold has a return of 114%.

Since 1926, on a 1-year time horizon, the S&P has a ~75% chance of beating inflation while gold has a ~45% chance.

And I'm not knocking you...I don't own any gold other than jewelry when I should at least have some allocation towards it.
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one safe place
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In reply to knoxtom • 12:28a, 2/28/25
knoxtom said:
But there is an equal or greater chance of serious drops in the markets, like I see a 30% to 50% drop.


lol
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BassCowboy33
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In reply to AgOutsideAustin • 3:21a, 2/28/25
AgOutsideAustin said:
Was your one stock you kept Nvidia ?


Serious bargain right now, especially now that it's made it through the expected Blackwell delivery lull and the rollercoaster that came with it.

This was the THIRD straight big stumble for NVIDIA after great Q reports. Each time it's made a mad rebound. Saw several firms raise guidance to $200+. That high of a number would surprise me, but I'm expecting at least $165 by the year's end.

As someone else mentioned, the wildcard is the economy as a whole. It feels like everything is teetering a bit. Tariffs are threatening to bring the whole thing toppling if a "certainty" can't be found. S&P is flat at a -0.12% YTD. It'll be hard to beat the last two years, which saw +23% and +24% gains, but I hope that this whole thing can right itself in the coming months and turn out a nice +8% on the year, but it feels like it's shaping up to be a 2018 or 2022.

My portfolio has been down for two straight months (One day left in Month 3), and I'm down about 10% since November. On the upswing, still up about 36% YoY.
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OldArmyCT
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4:29a, 2/28/25
AG
The oldest worst move stance in the stock market is the one where you say "I'm selling and will get back in once the market starts to go back up again." Have any of you guys ever averaged down?
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Bag
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In reply to knoxtom • 7:33a
AG
knoxtom said:
On my regular trading account I just sold every stock and went to cash. I may switch the entire 401k to bond funds as well.

Simple as this... I do not see how the stock market will be higher in 6 months or a year than it is now. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it will happen



Why do you hope you are wrong?
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Petrino1
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8:54a
Last year the market went down 10% and recovered. The market was down over 20% in 2022-2023 and recovered. The market went down over 32% in Covid 2020 and recovered.

We are currently down 4.4% from all time highs. This is a very small blip in the grand scheme of things.

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knoxtom
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In reply to Bag • 8:55a
Bag said:
knoxtom said:
On my regular trading account I just sold every stock and went to cash. I may switch the entire 401k to bond funds as well.

Simple as this... I do not see how the stock market will be higher in 6 months or a year than it is now. Hope I am wrong, but I doubt it will happen



Why do you hope you are wrong?


Because as a business owner the economy doing well helps me. I would happily miss out of some gains in the capital markets in exchange for overall economic boom.

I sold everything because I think combining tariffs with massive layoffs and cancelling of all projects will cause our entire economy to be crushed. For this I hope I am wrong.
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LMCane
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In reply to knoxtom • 9:17a
LOL

you do realize that as long as you DO NOT SELL then you don't lose during a 30% drop?

but good luck timing the market!

I'm sure you are smarter than Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman.That's why you post on an Aggies Athletic Board.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/market_timing.asp
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I Am A Critic
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In reply to LMCane • 9:19a
LMCane said:
LOL

you do realize that as long as you DO NOT SELL then you don't lose during a 30% drop?

but good luck timing the market!

I'm sure you are smarter than Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman.That's why you post on an Aggies Athletic Board.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/market_timing.asp
says the dude who photoshops himself onto magazine covers
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knoxtom
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In reply to LMCane • 10:48a
LMCane said:
LOL

you do realize that as long as you DO NOT SELL then you don't lose during a 30% drop?

but good luck timing the market!

I'm sure you are smarter than Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman.That's why you post on an Aggies Athletic Board.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/market_timing.asp


Buffett sold $127 billion of equities last year and is sitting on a higher percentage of cash than ever in his history. He is only bargain shopping and has divested from Apple (2/3 of his holdings sold) and BAC among others.

Berk portfolio is now 32% cash.

Seems more like I AM doing what Buffett is doing, not the opposite as you claim.


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Fredd
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In reply to knoxtom • 10:58a
AG
knoxtom said:
LMCane said:
LOL

you do realize that as long as you DO NOT SELL then you don't lose during a 30% drop?

but good luck timing the market!

I'm sure you are smarter than Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman.That's why you post on an Aggies Athletic Board.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/market_timing.asp


Buffett sold $127 billion of equities last year and is sitting on a higher percentage of cash than ever in his history. He is only bargain shopping and has divested from Apple (2/3 of his holdings sold) and BAC among others.

Berk portfolio is now 32% cash.

Seems more like I AM doing what Buffett is doing, not the opposite as you claim.




Why not just buy BerkB?
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Petrino1
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In reply to knoxtom • 11:04a
knoxtom said:
LMCane said:
LOL

you do realize that as long as you DO NOT SELL then you don't lose during a 30% drop?

but good luck timing the market!

I'm sure you are smarter than Warren Buffett and Bill Ackman.That's why you post on an Aggies Athletic Board.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/market_timing.asp


Buffett sold $127 billion of equities last year and is sitting on a higher percentage of cash than ever in his history. He is only bargain shopping and has divested from Apple (2/3 of his holdings sold) and BAC among others.

Berk portfolio is now 32% cash.

Seems more like I AM doing what Buffett is doing, not the opposite as you claim.


When do you plan to buy back in? The market is up today, what if it keeps going up?
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TxAG#2011
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In reply to knoxtom • 3:54p
Quote:
For the dude who said selling is a bad idea when in a high bracket I respond that I would rather pay 20-35% of my winnings than watch something (or everything) fall 30-50%.
I'm the guy and I just want to double-check that you are saying in order for this trade to make sense you need SPY to fall 30 to 50%?

I imagine this not a high probability.
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OldArmyCT
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4:01p
AG
Buffett has not said he sold due to market conditions, he has said he sold BC he is eyeing a purchase and needs cash. For the record I made more money today than what I paid for my first house.
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TTUArmy
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4:35p
Charlie would probably rollover in his grave if he knew Warren was taking physical delivery of gold.
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