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Revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million?

1,686 Views | 14 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by Fenrir
jamey
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8:19p, 8/19/24
AG
Is this guy real, or one of those scare tacticians?

Trying to decide if I should load up pre-market sell orders

He's got a large following, which means nothing


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MRB10
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In reply to jamey • 8:27p, 8/19/24
AG
It's real. I've seen it from other sources.

Par for the course for the last two years. There's a chart that gets updated every month with the new revisions that I'll post if I can find it.
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jamey
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8:39p, 8/19/24
AG
This would be one hell of a revision
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Sims
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8:52a, 8/20/24
AG
Zerohedge is an aggregator in the same vein as drudge but for alternative finance news, almost 99% is more bearish than the person reading it. There are some very level headed authors that he tracks - Michael Every with Rabo Bank and Jonathan Turley come to mind.

Lots of precious metal dealers advertise/provide content there.

For the most part, when Zerohedge tweets something out directly and not just sharing others content, they're more analysis driven than they are sensational and this is one of those times. There definitely has to be an adjustment here to get the overestimates in line with company reported hiring/firing.
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Fenrir
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In reply to MRB10 • 12:23p, 8/20/24
MRB10 said:
It's real. I've seen it from other sources.

Par for the course for the last two years. There's a chart that gets updated every month with the new revisions that I'll post if I can find it.
Curious if you found this.
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Killin Me Smalls
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12:44p, 8/20/24
AG

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MRB10
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In reply to Fenrir • 1:39p, 8/20/24
AG
I didn't but I got distracted. I'll get back on it.
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MRB10
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1:49p, 8/20/24
AG
Here's the first half of 2023. Looking for 2024 YTD.



The one I'm thinking about has all of 2023 and Q1 2024.
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FaceMask
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In reply to Sims • 3:15p, 8/20/24
Sims said:
Zerohedge is an aggregator in the same vein as drudge but for alternative finance news, almost 99% is more bearish than the person reading it. There are some very level headed authors that he tracks - Michael Every with Rabo Bank and Jonathan Turley come to mind.

Lots of precious metal dealers advertise/provide content there.

For the most part, when Zerohedge tweets something out directly and not just sharing others content, they're more analysis driven than they are sensational and this is one of those times. There definitely has to be an adjustment here to get the overestimates in line with company reported hiring/firing.


Aggregator for truth. We've known from the beginning and during Obama years.
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SteveBott
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12:53p, 8/21/24
AG
Here is a good graphic of the changes. As you can see the changes over the year is not as dramatic as the headlines. FYI it is normal to update these numbers both up and down. Happens almost every month
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strbrst777
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9:19p, 8/22/24
In other words, don't rely on gov stats. Lol to "over ten years" costs and savings estimates. Phony and everyone knows it.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to SteveBott • 9:25p, 8/22/24
Is it relevant that we have less native born workers employed than before COVID? Or is that just normal too. Is it normal for the majority of job growth to be in government and part time work? Is it normal for the government to spend 2.5+ dollars for ever dollar of growth in the country?

And remember, this 800M net downward revision only goes through March of this year. Since then, unemployment has ticked up. The months since are probably the same or even worse.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Fenrir
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In reply to SteveBott • 10:59p, 8/22/24
Not as dramatic? Based on that graph ~200k per month seems to be close to the average. That means 4 months worth of job growth was bogus. That's extremely significant revisions.
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SteveBott
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In reply to Fenrir • 11:08p, 8/22/24
AG
Where are you getting 200k? Not even close. The graph clearly states we have had solid job growth but not as much first thought. Any job increase over 125-150k is growth. You see what you want to see.
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Fenrir
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In reply to SteveBott • 11:14p, 8/22/24
SteveBott said:
Where are you getting 200k? Not even close. The graph clearly states we have had solid job growth but not as much first thought. Any job increase over 125-150k is growth. You see what you want to see.


I took a rough measure based on that graph instead of taking the time to average numbers. If you're arguing that 6 months of job growth being wiped out because of a revision is not dramatic then I'm not sure there is any common ground to discuss anything.

It's simple math. If 150k is a good month and 800k was wiped out from poor estimating in a single report, how is that not a dramatic event?
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