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inflation not slowing down

17,702 Views | 126 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by Sea Speed
hedge
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9:10a, 7/2/24








Sad

But hey I have good news

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EnronAg
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9:16a, 7/2/24
AG
grocery prices only up 25% since the pandemic is absolutely laughable...I shop for a family of 6 and there is just no sane person that can tell me otherwise...
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Heineken-Ashi
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9:21a, 7/2/24
And this is with oil prices low. Wait until crude is back at $95.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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EnronAg
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:36a, 7/2/24
AG
thanks for ruining my day
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LMCane
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 10:03a, 7/2/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
And this is with oil prices low. Wait until crude is back at $95.
Come on HA!

the Russians, Saudis, Iranians and Venezuelans will ensure the price of oil never reaches $95

that's just silly!
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LMCane
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In reply to hedge • 10:04a, 7/2/24
now add in $34 Trillion in debt with another trillion dollars being added every 6 months.
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confucius_ag
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10:11a, 7/2/24
AG
Ocean Freight rates for July are getting some steep surcharges $1500-$2000 per 40'.

Port congestion in Asia.

Equipment shortages.

Same old song and dance. We get squeezed

"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
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Captain Winky
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In reply to hedge • 11:10a, 7/2/24
Isn't CEO pay mostly tied to stock performance? Having the highest stock market prices ever would certainly help with their pay.
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General Jack D. Ripper
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12:38p, 7/2/24
Honest question. What has been done that would be reasonably expected to lower inflation? I say nothing. We are on the same path as before.
Well…you sounded taller on radio.
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El_duderino
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1:18p, 7/2/24
Looked at a grocery order from December 2021 and compared the item prices from then to now. Every item has increased between 25-100% and Most seemed to have increased by about 40%
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EnronAg
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In reply to El_duderino • 1:28p, 7/2/24
AG
agree, dude...I would say the floor to even begin discussions of grocery inflation for a total bill would be 50%...so the 25% number is just laughable...but I bet the arguments could be made for close to 75% total difference on an entire grocery bill...
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Heineken-Ashi
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2:00p, 7/2/24
An important read for this thread.

Gasoline Price Pairs And Inflation by Daniel Amerman
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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LMCane
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In reply to General Jack D. Ripper • 2:25p, 7/2/24
General Jack D. Ripper said:
Honest question. What has been done that would be reasonably expected to lower inflation? I say nothing. We are on the same path as before.
HIGHER INTEREST RATES by the Fed.
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Aggie Dad 26
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In reply to EnronAg • 2:32p, 7/2/24
EnronAg said:
grocery prices only up 25% since the pandemic is absolutely laughable...I shop for a family of 6 and there is just no sane person that can tell me otherwise...
Do you have an Aldi, grocery store in your area? If so, I highly suggest you give it a try. The savings are real
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Aggie Dad 26
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 2:37p, 7/2/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
An important read for this thread.

Gasoline Price Pairs And Inflation by Daniel Amerman
any chance you can answer my question in the ETF forum? 2nd from the very bottom

Thanks
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confucius_ag
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2:50p, 7/2/24
AG


Here at the office we decided to just track the price of a 25-lb bag of flour at HEB. We started this on March 8, 2022. This is a good snapshot of the inflation we've seen and it's not pretty.
"Me not know, me not tell, me push button and run like hell."
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AgOutsideAustin
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In reply to confucius_ag • 3:13p, 7/2/24
AG
confucius_ag said:


Here at the office we decided to just track the price of a 25-lb bag of flour at HEB. We started this on March 8, 2022. This is a good snapshot of the inflation we've seen and it's not pretty.



I'm not great at math but that inflation table looks transitory……….
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Aggie Dad 26
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4:53p, 7/2/24
when are we up for a new President again
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YouBet
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In reply to LMCane • 7:21p, 7/2/24
AG
LMCane said:
General Jack D. Ripper said:
Honest question. What has been done that would be reasonably expected to lower inflation? I say nothing. We are on the same path as before.
HIGHER INTEREST RATES by the Fed.


Not enough to matter because they can't. The math doesn't work anymore.

Volcker took us to 20% in 1980 but that was because we only had $1T in debt at the time.

We are now sitting at $35T which is why you only see quarter point moves up and down. Any more than that has an outsized effect on debt interest and other issues.

The Fed no longer has tools that work. What they are doing these days is purely theater.
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Mas89
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7:33p, 7/2/24
AG
Gas was 1.78 at my Heb station in November 2020 when Trump was still the president.
Gas is 2.89 today at the same store.
That's a 62.36 percent increase.
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chris1515
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In reply to YouBet • 7:47p, 7/2/24
AG
The Fed is using the only tool they can, interest rates.

But the problem was caused/aggravated by other factors.
Tax cuts
Covid stimulus
Loan and rent repayment holidays

Lack of anti-trust enforcement (is there more or less competition in the food supply chain and grocery industry today than 10 years ago?)

Trump's tariffs

And the Fed is trying to fix the inflationary affects with just rates.
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agdaddy04
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8:58p, 7/2/24
AG
And my homeowner insurance is about to go up 4x. Property taxes have 2x since 2021. Not a fun time.
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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In reply to Heineken-Ashi • 9:29p, 7/2/24
Heineken-Ashi said:
And this is with oil prices low. Wait until crude is back at $95.
That'll be the back breaker.

Put us into economic gridlock.
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one safe place
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In reply to chris1515 • 9:41p, 7/2/24
chris1515 said:
The Fed is using the only tool they can, interest rates.

But the problem was caused/aggravated by other factors.
Tax cuts Out of control spending
Covid stimulus
Loan and rent repayment holidays

Lack of anti-trust enforcement (is there more or less competition in the food supply chain and grocery industry today than 10 years ago?)

Trump's tariffs

And the Fed is trying to fix the inflationary affects with just rates.
FIFY
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YouBet
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In reply to chris1515 • 9:47p, 7/2/24
AG
chris1515 said:
The Fed is using the only tool they can, interest rates.

But the problem was caused/aggravated by other factors.
Tax cuts
Covid stimulus
Loan and rent repayment holidays

Lack of anti-trust enforcement (is there more or less competition in the food supply chain and grocery industry today than 10 years ago?)

Trump's tariffs

And the Fed is trying to fix the inflationary affects with just rates.


Spending is what got us here. That and almost only that.
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Stat Monitor Repairman
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10:18p, 7/2/24
Gonna be a wild ride.
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Complete Idiot
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9:31a, 7/3/24
The title of the thread insinuates inflation is rising in the recent months, or past year, as quickly as it was rising in the previous 2-3 years.

The supporting data provided by the OP shows total increases since the pandemic started in 2020, which does not back up the insinuation. Saying "Rent up 26% since start of pandemic" could mean it went up 26% between 2020 and 2021, and 0% since 2021 - it doesn't prove recent increases. I'm not saying the thread title is proven wrong either, just that the statement is not proven here.

In the following links you can see inflation is still running higher than historic norms, hence undesirable, but not as high as it was earlier in the 4+ year timeframe since the pandemic started. Inflation is almost always happening, throughout history of our economy, but rate of increase is what we keep an eye on.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm

https://www.statista.com/statistics/273418/unadjusted-monthly-inflation-rate-in-the-us/


There was another thread on this forum discussing impacts of inflation on our households, when analyzing my data the biggest increase was definitely seen in food - groceries, eating out. FOr me, just over 30% increase since 2020 but there are some variables beyond inflation as well. Insurance is another area of big increase but I have different cars, more drivers in household, etc. My home insurance went up but not drastically, which seems to be an outlier in Texas.
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CS78
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9:39a, 7/3/24
Rents are finally starting to catch up. They have not kept up with inflation. Property taxes, insurance, roofs, AC, and labor cost have all destroyed rental numbers and owners have to do something.

The building of new homes has been halted via high interest rates and demand will continue to push towards rentals.

Expect to see rents to increase heavily in the next year or two. It wont slow until they shave about 2% off of home loan and developer loan rates.
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Nagler
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9:46a, 7/3/24
AG
I used to be able to get a Breakfast Jack and a medium Coke Zero for $3.87.

It's now $5.00 at the same Jack in the Crack.
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Heineken-Ashi
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In reply to CS78 • 10:09a, 7/3/24
CS78 said:
Rents are finally starting to catch up. They have not kept up with inflation. Property taxes, insurance, roofs, AC, and labor cost have all destroyed rental numbers and owners have to do something.

The building of new homes has been halted via high interest rates and demand will continue to push towards rentals.

Expect to see rents to increase heavily in the next year or two. It wont slow until they shave about 2% off of home loan and developer loan rates.
Not so sure. Might have some modest rent growth, but the massive injection of supply in almost every market is keeping pressure down. Not to mention the huge supply of new homes and resales that have come online, with many renters choosing SF homes over apartments. From Costar..

Quote:
By the end of May, national rent growth remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.9% and 1.0% over the past three quarters. The 4 & 5 Star segment exhibited the weakest performance, with a decline of 0.1%, and has consistently reported either slightly negative or zero year-over-year rent growth for the last four quarters due to increasing vacancies. Since the first quarter of 2022, overall rent growth has slowed significantly from 10.2% to just under 1% in May. However, projections for the remainder of 2024 indicate rent growth holding steady through July, with potential for accelerated growth in the latter half of the year.

The Sun Belt markets no longer exhibit the most robust rent growth, as many previously fastest-growing markets have experienced significant deceleration. By the end of the first quarter, the metropolitan areas with the strongest rent growth were Louisville, Kentucky; Northern New Jersey; Cleveland; Washington, D.C.; and Norfolk. In contrast, Austin and Jacksonville have experienced the steepest rent declines over the past four quarters, with year-over-year rent growth of -5.7% and -3.6%, respectivelya stark departure from the mid-teen growth rate both markets enjoyed at the end of 2021.

Currently, the Midwest and Northeast regions lead the nation in rent growth, a trend expected to continue into 2025. These markets have avoided the sharp reversal in rent growth observed in Sun Belt locations, mainly due to their more modest construction pipelines during the pandemic. Projected deliveries in the Midwest for 2024 are only 11,000 units higher than in 2019. This restrained increase in projected new supply is expected to keep Midwestern markets more balanced, thereby avoiding the oversupply conditions contributing to weaker rent growth in the Sunbelt.

Nationally, the forecast shows rent growth acceleration for the first time since 2021, with growth expanding from 1.0% currently to 2.7% at the end of this year. At the market level, projections suggest that all but four major markets will return to positive rent growth by the end of 2024. However, approximately half of the top 50 markets by inventory are expected to fall short of their five-year pre-pandemic average rent growth in 2024. This suggests that significant variation in rent performance across different markets will likely persist throughout the remainder of the year.
I can believe your post for the market you operate in, but it's not consistent with other markets..

Quote:
With year-over-year rent growth reaching 3.8% in the College Station-Bryan multifamily market, the local market's performance has differed significantly from other markets in the state. In fact, as of early March, the market's annual rent growth figure was 240 basis points ahead of the nation as a whole. A lack of new supply has been the primary factor behind this trend, as less new competitionand a growing student base in the areahas made for a tighter vacancy situation in the Brazos Valley. As of today, 8.6% of multifamily units were vacant in the College Station-Bryan metro, below the average in the Texas Triangle. The Texas Triangle is a highly-urbanized portion of the state that contains its fastest-growing markets, including Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. College Station sits near the middle of this triangle, albeit closer to Houston.

At $1,090/month on average, asking rents in the College Station and Bryan areas is below the national average of $1,710/month. These figures cut across all quality types, however. For 4 & 5 Star inventory in particular, the average asking rental rate is closer to $1,370/month, though this is still approximately $750 below the national average for this segment.
"H-A: In return for the flattery, can you reduce the size of your signature? It's the only part of your posts that don't add value. In its' place, just put "I'm an investing savant, and make no apologies for it", as oldarmy1 would do."
- I Bleed Maroon (distracted easily by signatures)
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Beckdiesel03
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5:36p, 7/3/24
AG
What killed me this week was picking up bean dip for my youngest son. It is HIS beach snack must. $3.98 a freaking can and the can is smaller. I grocery shop every week so I realize the prices are stupid but damn.
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Troglodyte
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5:48p, 7/3/24
AG
Rents seemed to have peaked last summer. They are now flat June 2023 compared to June 2024. They are up big from 2021.
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SteveBott
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2:35p, 7/4/24
AG
This is what is most important to the Fed in policy decisions. The PCE. Notice it was right in line with their stated goals of 2% with as much as 2.5% the upper limit. Gas price in 2020 is worthless covid data.

We are almost right where we should be in 24
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Canyon99
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In reply to El_duderino • 4:08p, 7/4/24
AG
El_duderino said:
Looked at a grocery order from December 2021 and compared the item prices from then to now. Every item has increased between 25-100% and Most seemed to have increased by about 40%


Yeah that 20-25% figure they throw out is complete bull*****
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Aggie Dad 26
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In reply to confucius_ag • 1:39p, 7/5/24
confucius_ag said:


Here at the office we decided to just track the price of a 25-lb bag of flour at HEB. We started this on March 8, 2022. This is a good snapshot of the inflation we've seen and it's not pretty.


Please keep this updated on texags. I'm using it as a tool when teaching others about inflation and investing. It's amazing how many people still won't get into investing though I'm trying to put them under my wing. Im not only fully explaining everything but I'm willing to do the work for them to get things started.
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