Almost every sector is down today.
Is today the beginning of a stock market correction?
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Last: 4 mo ago by Toros23
I seem to recall this same question from March and April.
These ****ing threads
Yep! I'd say time to go to cash...except the board has been "going to cash" for years in light of imminent crash.
I made a buy that was pretty significant for me yesterday, so yes, today is the beginning of the end. Technically, yesterday afternoon was the high water mark.Gabster43213 said:
Almost every sector is down today.
MAS444 said:
Yep! I'd say time to go to cash...except the board has been "going to cash" for years in light of imminent crash.
I read Buffett is extremely heavy cash right now.
Schiller PE is almost back to what is was pre correction.
Stocks are overvalued imo.
The interest on our debt is now larger than the defense budget. First time in history. In a couple of years, the interest payments will surpass both Social Security and Medicare. First time in history. It's mathematically not sustainable.
Thus, I'm heavy cash. Could be wrong. We shall see.
Correction starts when fed cuts rates, buy the rumor sell the news.
Logos Stick said:MAS444 said:
Yep! I'd say time to go to cash...except the board has been "going to cash" for years in light of imminent crash.
I read Buffett is extremely heavy cash right now.
Schiller PE is almost back to what is was pre correction.
Stocks are overvalued imo.
The interest on our debt is now larger than the defense budget. First time in history. In a couple of years, the interest payments will surpass both Social Security and Medicare. First time in history. It's mathematically not sustainable.
Thus, I'm heavy cash. Could be wrong. We shall see.
And what good does being heavy on cash do you if this all comes tumbling down like the fear mongers think? You're not going to use it to buy back in because the government isn't going to fix what you perceive as the problem.
If capitalism ends as we know it, or America craters for an extensive amount of time (or forever), being heavy on cash won't do you much good.
Logos Stick said:
The interest on our debt is now larger than the defense budget. First time in history. In a couple of years, the interest payments will surpass both Social Security and Medicare. First time in history. It's mathematically not sustainable.
Thus, I'm heavy cash. Could be wrong. We shall see.
The game being played between the Democrats and the Republicans is our mutually assured destruction. A 3rd party is our only hope. I'll tell my daughter I did not vote for our mutually assured destruction but it's hard to imagine her generation doesn't have a very different life than her parents, grand parents and so on
Cash (the Biden kind) may be the most depreciating asset of all right now. I have really upped my RE holdings portion of my portfolio over the last several years.
roger on that, if it gets to the point where holding equities is no longer a viable investment option then we got much much bigger problems than being in cash is going to solve. At that point you are going to need an AR, ammo and sustainable food supply. We are all going down together in that scenarioQuote:
If capitalism ends as we know it, or America craters for an extensive amount of time (or forever), being heavy on cash won't do you much good.
What is the "correct" position for the stock market?
Asking because I'd like to buy low and sell high. Thanks!!
Asking because I'd like to buy low and sell high. Thanks!!
Welcome to the China Club
"Here's the pitch...POPPED it up! Oh man, that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
-Harry Carey
"Here's the pitch...POPPED it up! Oh man, that wouldn't be a home run in a phone booth."
-Harry Carey
All the bears who told me to sell when SPY was 430-450 are going to be pounding their chest and telling me they "told me so" when it retreates to 505
Stive said:Logos Stick said:MAS444 said:
Yep! I'd say time to go to cash...except the board has been "going to cash" for years in light of imminent crash.
I read Buffett is extremely heavy cash right now.
Schiller PE is almost back to what is was pre correction.
Stocks are overvalued imo.
The interest on our debt is now larger than the defense budget. First time in history. In a couple of years, the interest payments will surpass both Social Security and Medicare. First time in history. It's mathematically not sustainable.
Thus, I'm heavy cash. Could be wrong. We shall see.
And what good does being heavy on cash do you if this all comes tumbling down like the fear mongers think? You're not going to use it to buy back in because the government isn't going to fix what you perceive as the problem.
If capitalism ends as we know it, or America craters for an extensive amount of time (or forever), being heavy on cash won't do you much good.
LOL, perhaps ask Mr Buffet since he is heavy in it. Perhaps you can educate the man and his analysts!
Capitalism as we know it will end in this country. We are headed for socialism. That doesn't mean we wont have a stock market anymore. China does.
And I never said the currency would be replaced. HTH.
Charlie Murphy said:
What is the "correct" position for the stock market?
Asking because I'd like to buy low and sell high. Thanks!!
You could use the Schiller PE as a guide. Do you really believe that 35 is correct? I think the mean has risen from the 80s, but it's nowhere near 35.
Also the market value to gdp ratio is almost 200%. When that happens, it always corrects if you look at history.
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
El Chupacabra said:
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
I think you can just bookmark this post link and reference it any time you'd like with a "as I predicted..."
Gotta say, I agree with Prop Joe here. No offense, but that's some VooDoo word salad worthy of certain politicians.Proposition Joe said:El Chupacabra said:
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
I think you can just bookmark this post link and reference it any time you'd like with a "as I predicted..."
Signs point to either an up, down, or sideways movement.
Buffett is often long cash* because when BRKA finds a business they like, they go all in to purchase a large percentage of the company, if not the whole thing, with cash. They typically do not use leverage when making purchases. BRKA prefers to be the bank, not use them.
*and it's likely not cash, probably T-bills earning ~500 bps
*and it's likely not cash, probably T-bills earning ~500 bps
tysker said:
Buffett is often long cash* because when BRKA finds a business they like, they go all in to purchase a large percentage of the company, if not the whole thing, with cash. They typically do not use leverage when making purchases. BRKA prefers to be the bank, not use them.
*and it's likely not cash, probably T-bills earning ~500 bps
LOL, of course he's not holding dollar bills. He's in fixed income like the rest of us.
He indicted that the market is overpriced.
Quote:
Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has reached a new high. It sold a portion of its largest holding, Apple, to buy U.S. Treasury Bills. And Warren Buffet has all but told us at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha that the market is overly expensive and unattractive.
May 7, 2024
Proposition Joe said:El Chupacabra said:
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
I think you can just bookmark this post link and reference it any time you'd like with a "as I predicted..."
We had a joke on my old trading desk that every analyst and portfolio manager that goes on CNBC summarizes themselves using a version of 'short term cautious, long term bullish.' Totally noncommittal hedge
Ahhh....always one of my favorites:
"well.....________ is doing it so it's justified in my case"
As if that person/entity has the same equation and variables as any other individual. Warren will react very differently (and quicker) with his cash that just about anyone who's trying to mimic him can or will.
"well.....________ is doing it so it's justified in my case"
As if that person/entity has the same equation and variables as any other individual. Warren will react very differently (and quicker) with his cash that just about anyone who's trying to mimic him can or will.
That username.permabull said:
All the bears who told me to sell when SPY was 430-450 are going to be pounding their chest and telling me they "told me so" when it retreates to 505
My wife told me "You are always an optimist, and you are almost always wrong". I told her to put that on my tombstone.
Bullish since year 2000 here.
Buffett was also very late to the Apple game and since he's sold a portion of his holding it's up 10 points. I own ELF and for 2 weeks every news story I could find was saying Sell. I didn't. Sometimes the people who get paid to tell you about the market know less than their readers.Logos Stick said:tysker said:
Buffett is often long cash* because when BRKA finds a business they like, they go all in to purchase a large percentage of the company, if not the whole thing, with cash. They typically do not use leverage when making purchases. BRKA prefers to be the bank, not use them.
*and it's likely not cash, probably T-bills earning ~500 bps
LOL, of course he's not holding dollar bills. He's in fixed income like the rest of us.
He indicted that the market is overpriced.Quote:
Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has reached a new high. It sold a portion of its largest holding, Apple, to buy U.S. Treasury Bills. And Warren Buffet has all but told us at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha that the market is overly expensive and unattractive.
May 7, 2024
El Chupacabra said:
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
I thought reading charts to influence investment decisions was considered 'insider trading'?
or is it just frowned upon, like counting cards, or farting in an elevator
Does it matter? I mean...seriously.
If you are dollar cost averaging on a consistent disciplined basis (and you have a somewhat longer time horizon)...then you are positioned well.
As for the outright ending of American Capitalism...well...we will likely have bigger issues at that point.
If you are dollar cost averaging on a consistent disciplined basis (and you have a somewhat longer time horizon)...then you are positioned well.
As for the outright ending of American Capitalism...well...we will likely have bigger issues at that point.
OldArmyCT said:Buffett was also very late to the Apple game and since he's sold a portion of his holding it's up 10 points. I own ELF and for 2 weeks every news story I could find was saying Sell. I didn't. Sometimes the people who get paid to tell you about the market know less than their readers.Logos Stick said:tysker said:
Buffett is often long cash* because when BRKA finds a business they like, they go all in to purchase a large percentage of the company, if not the whole thing, with cash. They typically do not use leverage when making purchases. BRKA prefers to be the bank, not use them.
*and it's likely not cash, probably T-bills earning ~500 bps
LOL, of course he's not holding dollar bills. He's in fixed income like the rest of us.
He indicted that the market is overpriced.Quote:
Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has reached a new high. It sold a portion of its largest holding, Apple, to buy U.S. Treasury Bills. And Warren Buffet has all but told us at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha that the market is overly expensive and unattractive.
May 7, 2024
If the news sites and their writers could predict which way a stock was going to go with a high degree of accuracy, they wouldn't be writers.
At the same time, ultimately a stock price is going to go up or down -- and most of the time it does is simply because of macro market factors. So being right about what direction a stock is going to go doesn't really mean a whole lot.
A stock is going to go up, go down, or stay even. And since no one really gives much attention to a stock that isn't moving, your avar
Perfectly legal and very common. Machines count the cards for yaEliteZags said:El Chupacabra said:
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
I thought reading charts to influence investment decisions was considered 'insider trading'?
or is it just frowned upon, like counting cards, or farting in an elevator
I'm making an app that uses past roulette numbers to predict the next number. If you bet on red or black, I can assure you that it will win 47.37% of the time. It's like printing money! Who wants to send me $100 for the app?
Sometimes, portfolio managers reduce positions in names they love due to concentration and risk (like the 5% allocation rule for mutual funds). If a stock price increases and the position becomes too large relative to other holdings, managers have to haircut that position or find creative ways to restructure.OldArmyCT said:Buffett was also very late to the Apple game and since he's sold a portion of his holding it's up 10 points. I own ELF and for 2 weeks every news story I could find was saying Sell. I didn't. Sometimes the people who get paid to tell you about the market know less than their readers.Logos Stick said:tysker said:
Buffett is often long cash* because when BRKA finds a business they like, they go all in to purchase a large percentage of the company, if not the whole thing, with cash. They typically do not use leverage when making purchases. BRKA prefers to be the bank, not use them.
*and it's likely not cash, probably T-bills earning ~500 bps
LOL, of course he's not holding dollar bills. He's in fixed income like the rest of us.
He indicted that the market is overpriced.Quote:
Berkshire Hathaway's cash position has reached a new high. It sold a portion of its largest holding, Apple, to buy U.S. Treasury Bills. And Warren Buffet has all but told us at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting in Omaha that the market is overly expensive and unattractive.
May 7, 2024
Also, firms are supposed to publicly disclose when they cross over the 5% and 10% ownership thresholds. So its very common for larger shareholders to do what then can to stay just under those levels. I've also see some firms stay at like the 4.5% ownership stake through 13D/G reporting season and then ramp up purchases so they can 'hide' their position as long as possible.
EliteZags said:El Chupacabra said:
Could be. IF the lines I drew on a chart match up correctly, we could see a major correction. But only if my price target is triggered and SPY breeches the other lines on my chart. But we could go the other direction too if the bar charts confirm the trend. I'd look for another major leg up if we stay out of the normal range for a few sessions, but only if the lines confirm it...even then we could see the opposite. Would need the confirmations of the charts to determine if a correction or another run up. Based on recent price action, it is inconclusive at this point. But momentum tends to favor the other side of the chart and the market could be overbought (with confirmation of the chart of course). If we go outside the bands of the lines on my chart, it could suggest a correction of epic proportions, but only with price confirmation.
I thought reading charts to influence investment decisions was considered 'insider trading'?
or is it just frowned upon, like counting cards, or farting in an elevator
This is frowned upon? I have been making a horrible mistake.
Not really a strategy to follow when the elephant in the room (The Debt) decides to implode. I met with my FA yesterday and I always bring this up and he agrees with me that if The Debt decides it's going to crash the country then there isn't **** any of us can do.
Basically, financial advisors and their firms look ahead and just assume everything will not crash so they ignore it as a factor like everyone else. They obviously keep tabs on it and we look at charts and what not but there is nothing to be done about it.
Goldman's only take on the debt is that they think Congress will eventually do something about it before it crashes. Lol. Ok.
Basically, financial advisors and their firms look ahead and just assume everything will not crash so they ignore it as a factor like everyone else. They obviously keep tabs on it and we look at charts and what not but there is nothing to be done about it.
Goldman's only take on the debt is that they think Congress will eventually do something about it before it crashes. Lol. Ok.
YouBet said:
Not really a strategy to follow when the elephant in the room (The Debt) decides to implode. I met with my FA yesterday and I always bring this up and he agrees with me that if The Debt decides it's going to crash the country then there isn't **** any of us can do.
Basically, financial advisors and their firms look ahead and just assume everything will not crash so they ignore it as a factor like everyone else. They obviously keep tabs on it and we look at charts and what not but there is nothing to be done about it.
Goldman's only take on the debt is that they think Congress will eventually do something about it before it crashes. Lol. Ok.
Congress is pretty worthless so, it's highly doubtful they offer any honest solutions to a situation which they helped to create.
My eye is on the bond markets. With the debt going parabolic, interest rates on long T-Bills are going to get out of hand. When we start seeing 7-10% on 10 or 30 yr treasuries, failed treasury auctions, Fed monetizing debt, this game is done. Probably a mad rush into BTC or metals. I figure we'll be neck deep in global wars and conflicts. Until then, I guess we keep plugging along, playing the game.
One week later:
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