Anyone playing with these? Is it too soon?

Tracking but no money in

I bought a little. But my focus this year is BTC Miners and now MSTR since it looks to be oversold.

blackrock bought 11.5k bitcoin this week. current supply issuance is 900 per day, that cuts in half in ~3 months.

ac04 said:

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blackrock bought 11.5k bitcoin this week. current supply issuance is 900 per day, that cuts in half in ~3 months.

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What controls the 900 supply

So it's like an asset or I guess a commodity like oil, but we know now we'll only be able to pump half as much in 3 months

Obviously we burn oil but perhaps bitcoin could be considered wealth storage capacity

I have had GBTC since April last year. I wouldn't buy it now because their fees are too high but I liked the ~40% discount and I felt they would be able to covert to an ETF within 2-3 years and the halving event in 2q made me bullish on BTC.

jamey said:

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So it's like an asset or I guess a commodity like oil, but we know now we'll only be able to pump half as much in 3 months

Obviously we burn oil but perhaps bitcoin could be considered wealth storage capacity

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And in 4 more years it'll be 225 per day

So far these are down about 14%

Still too early?

be patient until GBTC finishes selling off. imo

This should serve as the reminder of buy the rumor, sell the fact. It works way more often than not.

Average in while the GBTC effect is sorting itself out.

Pepper Brooks said:

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Average in while the GBTC effect is sorting itself out.

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Is GBTC the biggest dog among the bitcoin ETFs

jamey said:

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Pepper Brooks said:

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Average in while the GBTC effect is sorting itself out.

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Is GBTC the biggest dog among the bitcoin ETFs

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They should all get similar returns with slightly lower performance from GBTC due to the higher fees.

the fees aren't the only reason GBTC is getting smoked, it is the only ETF that was previously a trust, which was trading at a huge discount vs spot for a couple of years. people locked in there have been waiting for the discount to close to get out (and some arbitraged the discount anticipating ETF approvals). FTX's bankruptcy estate has sold ~$1B of GBTC since it was converted to ETF, almost half of the outflows.

ac04 said:

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the fees aren't the only reason GBTC is getting smoked, it is the only ETF that was previously a trust, which was trading at a huge discount vs spot for a couple of years. people locked in there have been waiting for the discount to close to get out (and some arbitraged the discount anticipating ETF approvals). FTX's bankruptcy estate has sold ~$1B of GBTC since it was converted to ETF, almost half of the outflows.

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The discount had all but disappeared by the time of approval. It is now trading at a small premium (less than 0.5%). If by smoked you mean losing assets under management, you are correct.

If you mean poor performance, it is tracking Bitcoin with a near perfect correlation as are the other ETFs so the only performance different is the fees which would result in about a 0.1% lower performance per month than the best performing ETFs. Unless they lower the fees, they will get almost no inflow other than from people that don't look at fees and existing shareholders will move money to the other ETFs especially once it is clear which new ETFs will make it. . They are advertising a lot to try to stop this but most investors are too fee sensitive to have this work.

yes, losing AUM is exactly what i meant. hence the suggestion to wait for them to finish selling off.

ac04 said:

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yes, losing AUM is exactly what i meant. hence the suggestion to wait for them to finish selling off.

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They are done now.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/ftx-sold-about-1-bln-grayscales-bitcoin-etf-since-its-approval-coindesk-2024-01-22/#:~:text=Jan%2022%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20FTX,opens%20new%20tab%20on%20Monday.

I still don't understand why they're intent on self implosion. Why not take the fee lower from the jump and retain the title as the largest BTC ETF by AUM?

I've picked up several shares of FBTC. I'm down on every purchase, but I intend to hang on for a long time. I picked up MSTR back under $290 and dumped my shares once my loss approached 7 percent. That was a mistake, obviously.

Outflows related to the fee being high likely won't stop just because FTX sold a large chunk of shares. I wont be surprised if it keeps going for a few more weeks but who knows.

Average in and quit trying to time the bottom.

Pepper Brooks said:

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Outflows related to the fee being high likely won't stop just because FTX sold a large chunk of shares. I wont be surprised if it keeps going for a few more weeks but who knows.

Average in and quit trying to time the bottom.

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Agreed but likely those outflows will be largely offset by people taking that money to other ETFs to reduce fees.

Like you said, no one knows the bottom.

Geez. Satoshi do something bro

TxAG#2011 said:

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Geez. Satoshi do something bro

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Welcome to Bitcoin where 50+% drawdowns are normal. You could see this one coming from a mile away as it ran hard into the ETF announcement. Where will it stop dropping? No one knows so as said above, if you want to get in, dollar cost average.

DCA into BTC ETFs for about a month and look into buying some Microstrategy shares (to hold).

Also, Schwab is likely about to enter the BTC ETF game. They have been sitting back watching and now see how best to approach it with lower fees.

So is there a consensus on best current bitcoin ETF? IBIT?

Boat Shoes said:

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So is there a consensus on best current bitcoin ETF? IBIT?

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I picked IBIT because its the lowest price, currently at $27 a share where others I loked at are in the 40s but they appear to track up and down the same amount, all around +4.3% today for example

The lower cost just allows me to cost average in more often

IBIT and FBTC are separating themselves from the pack with respects to inflows and AUM. Share price shouldn't matter a ton unless one is trading at a premium or discount to NAV.

Do you think an ETF give you a greater percentage gain than just owning BTC outright? Assuming same dollars are being used. I know the ETF's are new, so wasn't sure if they will have more price movement upward this year due to that once the halfing cycle starts.

I think the main thing is it is easier to trade/work with/accumulate in an IRA. As with all funds, it benefits from a professional management yet there is a cost to that.

No. Theoretically the share price should correlate to the increase/decrease in value of the underlying asset. It's never perfect but the larger funds should be fine.

However, I would only buy the ETFs in accounts where the money is locked up. The value propositions for Bitcoin are only maximized when you self custody the asset itself. The ETFs only give you exposure to the price action.

I own the ETF in my IRA but also own the asset instead of holding the ETF in my brokerage account, for instance.

This ETF move catching everyone off guard. Up only in this new paradigm

I think it's a great place to move some assets if one believes the market is due for a downturn this spring.