Not trying to turn this into the politics board so please no comments on the attacks and/or justification other than how it relates to oil prices.

I am wanting to get people's thought on what oil does with the escalation of tension in the Middle East with the attack on the Houthi's and the Iranians pirating a tanker and taking it back to Iran. I would have expected a bigger rally in oil prices than the 2-3% we are seeing now.
Thanks

Kansas Kid said:

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Not trying to turn this into the politics board so please no comments on the attacks and/or justification other than how it relates to oil prices.

I am wanting to get people's thought on what oil does with the escalation of tension in the Middle East with the attack on the Houthi's and the Iranians pirating a tanker and taking it back to Iran. I would have expected a bigger rally in oil prices than the 2-3% we are seeing now.
Thanks

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We have an over supply problem with waning demand as economies are sputtering.

I don't see it really doing much other than stabilizing current prices at current levels. We don't have a bunch of people driving or needing petroleum as the economy expands. China is not using as much as forecasted. I'm worried more about prices collapsing from oversupply

Red Pear Luke (BCS) said:

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Kansas Kid said:

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Not trying to turn this into the politics board so please no comments on the attacks and/or justification other than how it relates to oil prices.

I am wanting to get people's thought on what oil does with the escalation of tension in the Middle East with the attack on the Houthi's and the Iranians pirating a tanker and taking it back to Iran. I would have expected a bigger rally in oil prices than the 2-3% we are seeing now.
Thanks

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We have an over supply problem with waning demand as economies are sputtering.

I don't see it really doing much other than stabilizing current prices at current levels. We don't have a bunch of people driving or needing petroleum as the economy expands. China is not using as much as forecasted. I'm worried more about prices collapsing from oversupply

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I agree with the view of oversupply in 2024 IF Middle East exports aren't impacted but I would think the market would start pricing in a risk of major disruption for a period of time. Gold is rallying 2% today on the back of global tension and US bonds are also rallying. The one other commodity that usually rallies on global unrest is oil but it is now only up 1% and falling.

All I know right now is the trade. $75 and above. Sell. $68-70. Buy. Rinse and repeat. Why? No one really knows right now. It almost seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy at the moment.

Furlock Bones said:

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All I know right now is the trade. $75 and above. Sell. $68-70. Buy. Rinse and repeat. Why? No one really knows right now. It almost seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy at the moment.

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I can't disagree because oil is clearly range bound right now. I just thought this might finally get it to break out but clearly it isn't for some reason.

2024 outlook seems to be pointing at flat-ish.

But, a handful of execs at the Majors have been insinuating that '25 could show signs of global shortage, which could kick off the next round of loose cannon crude market trading.

I've been waiting for $61 crude to buy oil stocks.

massive consolidation especially in the Permian is likely to curb growth especially if crude maintains this range bound trading.

True. But, last year was so heavy with M&A that I'm not sure how much more consolidation is out there for the time being anyhow. Shell is likely up to bat next, and Delaware and Permian basins are still the target areas to amass acreage and traditional production

Delaware is part of the Permian. Maybe you meant Delaware and Midland Basins.

And I'm not sure I see Shell reentering the Permian after they just sold out in 2021 to COP.