Nm
Seeing Beyond the "Price Stability" of Bitcoin
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131 Replies |
Last: 2 mo ago by Algorithmic Epiphany
Quote:
Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao Agrees to Step Down, Plead Guilty
Zhao's crypto exchange will also admit wrongdoing and agree to pay $4.3 billion in fines
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao-step-down-plead-guilty-01f72a40
so now that the heads of the crypto equivalents of Chase and Bank of America have both been outed as criminals, can the real healing start to begin?
Diggity said:Quote:
Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao Agrees to Step Down, Plead Guilty
Zhao's crypto exchange will also admit wrongdoing and agree to pay $4.3 billion in fines
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao-step-down-plead-guilty-01f72a40
so now that the heads of the crypto equivalents of Chase and Bank of America have both been outed as criminals, can the real healing start to begin?
Healing in what way?
It'd be far more interesting to see the $4.3B in fines used to purchase bitcoin.
I'd say the fine is also significant, especially comparing the handslaps given to the banks discussed above, $4.3B out of $65B (as of 2022). Although I'm uncertain whether the $60B was CZ's personal wealth or valuation of the tokens and company together.
Also, interesting to note that FTX, had it not filed bankruptcy, would be solvent at the moment but still stealing customer funds.
I'd say the fine is also significant, especially comparing the handslaps given to the banks discussed above, $4.3B out of $65B (as of 2022). Although I'm uncertain whether the $60B was CZ's personal wealth or valuation of the tokens and company together.
Also, interesting to note that FTX, had it not filed bankruptcy, would be solvent at the moment but still stealing customer funds.
Regarding the "inoculation" tweet I was responding to.
Diggity said:
Regarding the the "inoculation" tweet I was responding to.
Ah gotcha, thank you. I agree, clear out the infection. Bitcoin will march onward.
It's estimated that all 21-million bitcoin will be mined by 2140.
That last chunk of coins may be increasingly valuable.
That last chunk of coins may be increasingly valuable.
i was told that CZ going down would cause BTC price to "drop like a rock" because michael lewis said so. what gives?
I'm surprised Lewis would have said that. He seemed pretty sold on Crypto.
Maybe Lewis was talking out his arse?
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Zero to $35K is a "general upward trend". This shouldn't be difficult to comprehend.aTm said:
Bitcoin has not generally trended upward. Just because it's higher now than it was when it was first created doesn't mean squat. Look at it's (short) lifetime graph: It's gone from basically 0 to $60K, back down to $30K back up to $65K, back down to $15K and now at around $35K. All in less than a decade. To say that is a "general upward trend" is laughable. It's been all over the place.
Can you make that a more concrete prediction or estimate? How soon and what % of public companies?Monywolf said:That's the dollar.birdman said:
A bunch of typing to describe a non-productive asset.
And that's why many more companies will have bitcoin as part of their treasury holdings very soon.
Asking because I don't really hear people talking about BTC anymore in person and had assumed it was going to be dead within 10 years.
GE said:Can you make that a more concrete prediction or estimate? How soon and what % of public companies?Monywolf said:That's the dollar.birdman said:
A bunch of typing to describe a non-productive asset.
And that's why many more companies will have bitcoin as part of their treasury holdings very soon.
Asking because I don't really hear people talking about BTC anymore in person and had assumed it was going to be dead within 10 years.
Give me an idea how fast the dollar will be printed/devalued and I can firm up some numbers.
As Microstrategy sees tremendously outsized gains each $1k bitcoin appreciates, it'll light some pretty massive fires underneath everyone.
It'll definitely be quicker than DEI/ESG was adopted.
BlackRock, ahem, the DOJ just did what?
The go ahead to BlackRock's ETFs is nearing and the path to controlling the sale of BTC is being laid. Blackrock wanted Binance out of the way to control how BTC can be manipulated.
BlackRock and Coinbase will control the onboarding of future customersthos that rely and prefer traditional banking. Next will be to gain control of non custodial wallets and storage. They will have success but will fail to convert all of crypto into TradFi- web4.
Blockbuster and Hollywood Video are becoming Redbox, whilst the rest of crypto wants to remain Hulu.
The go ahead to BlackRock's ETFs is nearing and the path to controlling the sale of BTC is being laid. Blackrock wanted Binance out of the way to control how BTC can be manipulated.
BlackRock and Coinbase will control the onboarding of future customersthos that rely and prefer traditional banking. Next will be to gain control of non custodial wallets and storage. They will have success but will fail to convert all of crypto into TradFi- web4.
Blockbuster and Hollywood Video are becoming Redbox, whilst the rest of crypto wants to remain Hulu.
aTmAg said:You really need to work on your metaphors.Adverse Event said:
Metaphor:
In 2008, Satoshi's revelation of Bitcoin was akin to ancient humans discovering the silkworm. For ages, these worms existed, spinning their cocoons in obscurity, their potential unrealized. Just as early cultivators learned to harness these worms, Satoshi and the early adopters recognized the potential of this new "digital cocoon." They began the meticulous process of refining it. Over time, just as silkworm threads were carefully extracted and woven into the lustrous fabric of silk, Bitcoin's potential was unraveled and woven into the intricate tapestry of the financial world. Silk, once a luxury reserved for royalty and the elite, became a sought-after commodity worldwide. Similarly, Bitcoin, initially understood by a select few, has now become a treasured asset, its value recognized globally. And just as every strand of silk contributes to the fabric's overall strength and value, every Satoshi adds to the collective worth of Bitcoin.
For the undereducated, or overeducated, all you might see are stupid caterpillars.
Digital beanie babies would be a better one. I say digital, because at least with real beanie babies, owners had the ability to cuddle with them after they became nearly worthless.
These tears will be salty when we break 500k.
Stat Monitor Repairman said:
It's estimated that all 21-million bitcoin will be mined by 2140.
That last chunk of coins may be increasingly valuable.
Your timeline is correct but you need some more study.
Diggity said:Quote:
Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao Agrees to Step Down, Plead Guilty
Zhao's crypto exchange will also admit wrongdoing and agree to pay $4.3 billion in fines
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao-step-down-plead-guilty-01f72a40
so now that the heads of the crypto equivalents of Chase and Bank of America have both been outed as criminals, can the real healing start to begin?
Bitcoin was never affected by any of these garbage crypto companies or humans. No healing necessary.
GE said:Can you make that a more concrete prediction or estimate? How soon and what % of public companies?Monywolf said:That's the dollar.birdman said:
A bunch of typing to describe a non-productive asset.
And that's why many more companies will have bitcoin as part of their treasury holdings very soon.
Asking because I don't really hear people talking about BTC anymore in person and had assumed it was going to be dead within 10 years.
Those people were the ones that were playing roulette with crypto in '21 and '22. They all lost their USD and got out. Rest of us who actually studied up on it are still here quietly in the background.
The way I look at Bitcoin is it solves the problem of sound money. Anything that solves a problem has value. And the more serious the problem, the more valuable the solution is. The USD appears doomed to me. Does anybody here think the US government is going to start being fiscally responsible and save the dollar from collapse? I don't. The trend is not your friend with the dollar.
So to me the smart play is own Bitcoin, gold mines, oil and gas minerals, real estate, stocks in companies with pricing power, etc…..a collection of valuable assets.
As for those who can't stand Bitcoin's volatility, I get it. But consider that the average correction in Amazon stock has been 30% over its publicly traded life. The average!!! There was a year Amazon lost 80% of its value. New technologies, like Bitcoin and Amazon at one time, are more subject to the wild swings of fear and greed than say stock in Johnson and Johnson or your home.
Bitcoin has averaged going up around 50% a year since inception. It's had wild swings in value but the trend is your friend if you look at the bottom line. That rate of appreciation will go down as it gets more widely accepted.
I own Bitcoin, along with other assets I believe to be valuable because it solves my problem of wanting to own sound money that can't be destroyed by foolish politicians.
So to me the smart play is own Bitcoin, gold mines, oil and gas minerals, real estate, stocks in companies with pricing power, etc…..a collection of valuable assets.
As for those who can't stand Bitcoin's volatility, I get it. But consider that the average correction in Amazon stock has been 30% over its publicly traded life. The average!!! There was a year Amazon lost 80% of its value. New technologies, like Bitcoin and Amazon at one time, are more subject to the wild swings of fear and greed than say stock in Johnson and Johnson or your home.
Bitcoin has averaged going up around 50% a year since inception. It's had wild swings in value but the trend is your friend if you look at the bottom line. That rate of appreciation will go down as it gets more widely accepted.
I own Bitcoin, along with other assets I believe to be valuable because it solves my problem of wanting to own sound money that can't be destroyed by foolish politicians.
If government doesn't accept it then how sound can it be?
Lots of blockchain currencies also solve the problem. How do you know which one is the most sound?
Lots of blockchain currencies also solve the problem. How do you know which one is the most sound?
bmks270 said:
If government doesn't accept it then how sound can it be?
Lots of blockchain currencies also solve the problem. How do you know which one is the most sound?
Why in the world would the government accepting Bitcoin be a positive for Bitcoin? Bitcoin's primary attraction is it has nothing to do with governments. Gov can't steal it, governments can't stop you from leaving their countries with your wealth in Bitcoin and Bitcoin has proven governments can't kill it. The fact that governments worldwide are destroying the value of the very currencies they created is exactly why Bitcoin's value has gone from $100 to $42,000. If government malfeasance wasn't so horrendous and widespread, then there would be no need for Bitcoin. You need to ask yourself what you are going to do once the US gov is printing dollars to pay interest on the debt. Because at that point, it's over for the dollar. Look what just happened in Argentina. Overnight the Argentine gov devalued their currency by 50%. Think it can't happen here? Look who is running America right now. Our country is being run by crooks, buffoons and a few good men. Look at "our" gov policies on the border, crime, theft, spending and borrowing, child sex changes, the president and Congress taking money from China, Soros and Zuckerberg, school curriculums and concerned parents that go to meetings being considered terrorist threats along with white people in general. Do you think they are on your side and will do the right thing when it comes to your money? I don't think they are on my side.
As far as other cryptos and another crypto being created that is a better store of wealth than Bitcoin, that's a damn good question. And it's one I have asked myself over the years. That could happen. But Bitcoin was first to market and that's big. Also, Bitcoin is nearly perfect. To me, the one negative of Bitcoin is the security angle. I think there is plenty of room for improvement there.
Curious, where is the best place to buy right now? Cold storage still a thing?
Nah, everyone uses hot wallets these days.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”
“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”
“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
Cold storage will always be a thing.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
The whether it has "utility" value is such an overblown argument.
Copper has 10x the utility value that Gold has. Arguably the most important commodity after oil as it's the base product for the creation of semiconductors.
Yet Copper is priced at $0.24/oz while Gold has a price of $2,023/oz.
Utility value vs Scarcity value.
Both have value. One is clearly valued at a premium. BTC, like gold, is valued for its scarcity, versus USD, which are not scarce and can be manipulated/created out of thin air.
Copper has 10x the utility value that Gold has. Arguably the most important commodity after oil as it's the base product for the creation of semiconductors.
Yet Copper is priced at $0.24/oz while Gold has a price of $2,023/oz.
Utility value vs Scarcity value.
Both have value. One is clearly valued at a premium. BTC, like gold, is valued for its scarcity, versus USD, which are not scarce and can be manipulated/created out of thin air.
pfo said:
The way I look at Bitcoin is it solves the problem of sound money. Anything that solves a problem has value. And the more serious the problem, the more valuable the solution is. The USD appears doomed to me. Does anybody here think the US government is going to start being fiscally responsible and save the dollar from collapse? I don't. The trend is not your friend with the dollar.
So to me the smart play is own Bitcoin, gold mines, oil and gas minerals, real estate, stocks in companies with pricing power, etc…..a collection of valuable assets.
As for those who can't stand Bitcoin's volatility, I get it. But consider that the average correction in Amazon stock has been 30% over its publicly traded life. The average!!! There was a year Amazon lost 80% of its value. New technologies, like Bitcoin and Amazon at one time, are more subject to the wild swings of fear and greed than say stock in Johnson and Johnson or your home.
Bitcoin has averaged going up around 50% a year since inception. It's had wild swings in value but the trend is your friend if you look at the bottom line. That rate of appreciation will go down as it gets more widely accepted.
I own Bitcoin, along with other assets I believe to be valuable because it solves my problem of wanting to own sound money that can't be destroyed by foolish politicians.
I love this post. Very like minded to me.
I believe in BTC but for my personal risk appetite, I devote 5% of net worth to it. It's a comfortable amount for me for a wide range of outcomes: if BTC goes to zero, it hurts but I'll be ok. If BTC goes to $1,000,000, bring on the good times.
Own real estate and equities of what I believe are to be good companies. Diversified into assets. That's not the way to get rich, but you won't go broke.
I'd sure like for a bitcoin supporter to explain to me why its valuation should be what it is. Why should it be 40,000? Why not 100,000? Why not 10,000? Why not 1$? Why not 1mm$?
Well thank you! I haven't seen that "Intro to Micro" chart in quite a long time. Never actually saw it used to value a financial asset in nearly 40 years on wall street. But hey, it's all cleared up now.
Seems like you got the response you did because your question came across condescending and as if you already had an assumption made. If that's not the case I apologize and I'm sure AC would too. There are a lot of those types on the internet, and the community that supports BTC can be a little hair trigger about having to constantly answer questions from people who aren't really interested in the responses.
I'm reading the book by Rick Edelman
now I need to go back and buy some more on Coinbase just to practice using my cold storage wallet which I haven't used since before I moved overseas 9 months ago.
now I need to go back and buy some more on Coinbase just to practice using my cold storage wallet which I haven't used since before I moved overseas 9 months ago.
northeastag said:
I'd sure like for a bitcoin supporter to explain to me why its valuation should be what it is. Why should it be 40,000? Why not 100,000? Why not 10,000? Why not 1$? Why not 1mm$?
There is no ceiling for Bitcoin because there is no floor for fiat currency.
The price is purely based on adoption and how many people, and to what extent those people, feel like they'd rather hold Bitcoin than the dollar. The more they exchange their dollars for Bitcoin, the higher the price of Bitcoin in US dollar terms.
But, if you ask someone like me, Bitcoin is worth way more than the current price, due to its inherent qualities. There's no chance I'd part with Bitcoin for $40k per coin. So, "value" is very different from "current price."
It was actually an honest question.
If Bitcoin is a financial investment, it's an investment with no future cash flow or earnings, so it's impossible to value it using a PV of future cash flow or earnings analysis.
If Bitcoin is a "store of value", meaning a currency, since it is both virtual and global, it isn't possible to use the methods of value (PPP, IRP, etc.) that would customarily be used for currencies.
When thinking of Bitcoin, I'm often reminded of the old interview question (or joke) asking candidates how much they would pay for a zero coupon perpetual bond.
If Bitcoin is a financial investment, it's an investment with no future cash flow or earnings, so it's impossible to value it using a PV of future cash flow or earnings analysis.
If Bitcoin is a "store of value", meaning a currency, since it is both virtual and global, it isn't possible to use the methods of value (PPP, IRP, etc.) that would customarily be used for currencies.
When thinking of Bitcoin, I'm often reminded of the old interview question (or joke) asking candidates how much they would pay for a zero coupon perpetual bond.
northeastag said:
It was actually an honest question.
If Bitcoin is a financial investment, it's an investment with no future cash flow or earnings, so it's impossible to value it using a PV of future cash flow or earnings analysis.
If Bitcoin is a "store of value", meaning a currency, since it is both virtual and global, it isn't possible to use the methods of value (PPP, IRP, etc.) that would customarily be used for currencies.
When thinking of Bitcoin, I'm often reminded of the old interview question (or joke) asking candidates how much they would pay for a zero coupon perpetual bond.
It's digital gold. An asset without an issuer. A commodity. And it's perfectly scarce. How would you describe gold in terms of PPP, IRP, etc?
https://cryptopotato.com/tether-reveals-partnerships-with-secret-service-fbi/
Exhibit A as to why Bitcoin not having a central governing body is important.
Exhibit A as to why Bitcoin not having a central governing body is important.
“There is no red.
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”
“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
There is no blue.
There is the state.
And there is you.”
“As government expands, Liberty contracts” - R. Reagan
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