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Return to work plus inflation

12,124 Views | 127 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by double aught
LMCane
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CEOs are the most pessimistic they've been in more than a decade as world faces a slowdown

PUBLISHED TUE, JAN 17 2023

Some 73% of CEOs think global growth will decline in the next year, according to a new survey by PwC.
The survey was made up of 4,410 CEOs across 105 countries.

It also showed that almost 40% believe that their business will not be economically viable within a decade on current trajectories.

The global economy is the biggest concern for CEOs, with confidence in the international climate having plummeted in the last year.

Some 73% of CEOs think global growth will decline in the next year, according to a survey by audit firm PwC, confirming the most pessimistic outlook by business leaders for 12 years.
YouBet
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At some point, the financial cost for multiple kids in childcare plus the intangibles that go with that trump the lesser of two salaries in a dual income family.

I assume people are factoring that inflection point in these decisions.
YouBet
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

Buckle up. Your wages aren't going to increase enough relative to the increase in costs. Smartest move you can do as an individual is start living well below your means with the expectations of continuously increasing costs against stagnant wages. Wages are being re-rated without you knowing it.

I would re-evaluate everything: where you live, where you work, and make sure you're optimized and hardened. I don't think we're going to have some Armageddon event and I think everyone who wants work will be able to get work, but I think it's going to be a grind against macro factors that will seem like fighting gravity.


Not prepared to rule out an Armageddon event but agree with you overall.

We've been optimizing and hardening since Covid hit because I knew that was going to change everything and it did. We've shed thousands in annual, frivolous spend that we previously didn't think about as DINKs, Ive changed jobs that let's me live anywhere, my wife is retiring from her corporate gig this year and will do something new with full remote flexibility, and we are selling house/moving (crossing fingers) which will remove our mortgage.

The last one is the most challenging because of the current market.
double aught
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YouBet said:

At some point, the financial cost for multiple kids in childcare plus the intangibles that go with that trump the lesser of two salaries in a dual income family.

I assume people are factoring that inflection point in these decisions.
In most cases where people claim that both parents have to work, I'm not buying it. What they really mean is both need to work to maintain a certain lifestyle.

It's not hard to live off one professional salary if you go without new cars, the nicest neighborhood, every streaming service, etc.
jamey
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double aught said:

YouBet said:

At some point, the financial cost for multiple kids in childcare plus the intangibles that go with that trump the lesser of two salaries in a dual income family.

I assume people are factoring that inflection point in these decisions.
In most cases where people claim that both parents have to work, I'm not buying it. What they really mean is both need to work to maintain a certain lifestyle.

It's not hard to live off one professional salary if you go without new cars, the nicest neighborhood, every streaming service, etc.



That's true. I was already living in a much cheaper house before getting married and having a kid, and the area seemed fine on the surface but the school was rated a 1 out of 10.

So we basically doubled or mortgage for a bigger, nicer house in an area with good schools.

Luckily we got a 2% 15 year fixed mortgage about 2 summers ago so we can't do any better without sacrificing the school environment
62strat
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Ragoo said:

Electricity is still relatively cheap

And extra usage is minimal
Speak for yourself. Electric rates have doubled where I live.

Gasoline is cheap right now.. so not really feeling it going back into work. Though I was only at work 3 days a week through 2 years of covid, now I'm 4 days.. every once in a while 5.
I don't drink coffee, but if I did I certainly wouldn't spend $100+ a month at starbucks when it's free at work.

While my lunch is paid for when I go out, I only join in maybe 2-3 times a month.
I still eat what I ate before covid, which is leftovers, or something really cheap like a $2 can of soup.

Groceries on the other hand. Jesus even a small run is $100 now, with me trying to buy everything on sale/coupons. We used to load up for a week at $120, family of 4.
62strat
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CapAmr05 said:

Wear and tear + Gas on commuting is absolutely an impact; inflation only exacerbates it.

Wife got her new car (@ 0 miles) in May 2018
  • Prior to lockdowns she was working 9 of 10 days a week in office; +/-80 miles round trip
  • She worked from home during most of the lock down (maybe 1 trip into the office every 2 weeks)
  • Post lock down she works 3 days a week in office
Her current mileage is 130k; she fills up a minimum once a week

I got my 'new' car (used @ 19k miles) in August 2019
  • I've been W@H long before any of the pandemic and still W@H now
My current mileage is 54k; I fill up once every 2 weeks

working 40 miles from home is a choice.. And you W@H full time yet still put on 10k a year? I work 25 miles from home and put on ~15k. Either yall gettin in a lot of road trips or you are running too many errands!


My wife worked through all of the lock down save for a few months (in education), and she's put 4-5k miles on her car every for 10 years, regardless of pandemic.
YouBet
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double aught said:

YouBet said:

At some point, the financial cost for multiple kids in childcare plus the intangibles that go with that trump the lesser of two salaries in a dual income family.

I assume people are factoring that inflection point in these decisions.
In most cases where people claim that both parents have to work, I'm not buying it. What they really mean is both need to work to maintain a certain lifestyle.

It's not hard to live off one professional salary if you go without new cars, the nicest neighborhood, every streaming service, etc.
Agreed. And all of the financial stats out there on US family savings rates and debt would back this up.

On the latter we did exactly that when I left my corporate job. While I did some level of consulting it wasn't remotely enough to replace my corporate income - basically play money. However, before I left the corporate life I ran a new budget based on just my wife's income which meant shedding the thousands of dollars in spend I mentioned in post above.

And we continue to maintain that budget as I went back to work and she prepares to leave hers. If we had shed that spend about 10 years ago we could both fully retire right now in our late 40's. Too late for that though. Ha.
htxag09
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I know how lucky I am in the fact that we have a cafeteria at work that is supplemented by the company (they pay around 30% of the total). A decent sized lunch w/ drink costs anywhere from $6-$12, depending on what you get (sandwich & chips, burger & fries, etc. to salmon and veggies). Even more of an impact when you consider we're in a business district where most lunch spots are $25+.

We reanalyzed our budget w/ inflation and new goals and my "budget" for lunch & breakfast is $120/month. Would be hard pressed to make that last two weeks w/out our cafe.
62strat
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htxag09 said:

I know how lucky I am in the fact that we have a cafeteria at work
I feel blessed to be in construction. Everyone has a company card, and lunches get coded to a job! We're 2-3 miles outside of downtown Denver so lots of good options.
I mostly don't do it everyday because I don't want to pack on the lbs. But literally everyday a group of 4-6 in our office go to lunch, and it's $100 or more.

My office also has a stocked fridge and 'pantry' with snacks and junk food too
TriAg2010
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Dr. Horrible said:

I just paid $20 for a sandwich, chips and a drink at lunch today.


Pretty much the only times I dine out for lunch is if I'm taking a client, so it's coming out of my pocket, but the cost of a fountain drink or an iced tea at a sit down restaurant is categorically insane. I'm not paying $3.99 for an iced tea even if it isn't my money.
LMCane
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You guys are also lucky you don't have to pay mandatory tolls to get to work and back.
LMCane
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TriAg2010 said:

Dr. Horrible said:

I just paid $20 for a sandwich, chips and a drink at lunch today.


Pretty much the only times I dine out for lunch is if I'm taking a client, so it's coming out of my pocket, but the cost of a fountain drink or an iced tea at a sit down restaurant is categorically insane. I'm not paying $3.99 for an iced tea even if it isn't my money.
it's $15 here this past weekend for a Keto Smoothie at Smoothie King
techno-ag
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jamey said:

double aught said:

YouBet said:

At some point, the financial cost for multiple kids in childcare plus the intangibles that go with that trump the lesser of two salaries in a dual income family.

I assume people are factoring that inflection point in these decisions.
In most cases where people claim that both parents have to work, I'm not buying it. What they really mean is both need to work to maintain a certain lifestyle.

It's not hard to live off one professional salary if you go without new cars, the nicest neighborhood, every streaming service, etc.



That's true. I was already living in a much cheaper house before getting married and having a kid, and the area seemed fine on the surface but the school was rated a 1 out of 10.

So we basically doubled or mortgage for a bigger, nicer house in an area with good schools.

Luckily we got a 2% 15 year fixed mortgage about 2 summers ago so we can't do any better without sacrificing the school environment


EliteZags
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Dr. Horrible said:

I just paid $20 for a sandwich, chips and a drink at lunch today.

can only stomach it couple times a month at most, but code 599FOOTLONG has worked for a while in the Subway app
62strat
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EliteZags said:

Dr. Horrible said:

I just paid $20 for a sandwich, chips and a drink at lunch today.

can only stomach it couple times a month at most, but code 599FOOTLONG has worked for a while in the Subway app
Burger king app has $1 whopper Wednesdays pretty often lol. I splurge and add cheese, then come back to office to grab a bag of chips and bubly out of the fridge for quite a frugal lunch, under $2

or mcd's often having free double cheeseburger with $2 purchase, so I'll get fries.

$30,000 Millionaire
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TXAGGIES said:

I frame it to my reports as the savings they get working remote for 2 days not the cost of going from 100% WFH to 2 days a week.

It's all perspective.


No, that's BS corporate speak actually.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AggieT said:

Quote:

make sure you're optimized and hardened
Please elaborate.


On the defense side:
- savings moat
- reasonable bills on an income you are able to replace
- eliminate or reduce expenses or have a plan to do so if needed. Some of the hardliners here would tell you to eat oatmeal every meal and not have home internet. Just balance and don't overdo it.

Offense side:
- build and maintain professional network
- optimize skills
- perform well at job
insulator_king
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Mr frugal here,
I always make my own lunch, and bring my own drink.
I just don't eat out, period.
Meat and cheese sandwiches some days, then rice and some chili with beans and ground chicken. throw some cheese on it w/ chopped onion, and I am full.

Milk and cereal and oatmeal for breakfast.
Or this past Sunday morning I made a big batch of pancakes up for the next 5 days. Peanut butter, syrup, and a couple links turkey sausage, glass of milk, around $3.
CapAmr05
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62strat said:

CapAmr05 said:

Wear and tear + Gas on commuting is absolutely an impact; inflation only exacerbates it.

Wife got her new car (@ 0 miles) in May 2018
  • Prior to lockdowns she was working 9 of 10 days a week in office; +/-80 miles round trip
  • She worked from home during most of the lock down (maybe 1 trip into the office every 2 weeks)
  • Post lock down she works 3 days a week in office
Her current mileage is 130k; she fills up a minimum once a week

I got my 'new' car (used @ 19k miles) in August 2019
  • I've been W@H long before any of the pandemic and still W@H now
My current mileage is 54k; I fill up once every 2 weeks

working 40 miles from home is a choice.. And you W@H full time yet still put on 10k a year? I work 25 miles from home and put on ~15k. Either yall gettin in a lot of road trips or you are running too many errands!


My wife worked through all of the lock down save for a few months (in education), and she's put 4-5k miles on her car every for 10 years, regardless of pandemic.
My intent was to highlight the difference an office going car and a homebody car goes through. It definitely wasn't intended to be taken as a complaint.

You can probably guess more maintenance work and gas went into one than the other, dovetailing into the OP's point about inflation - travel costs will be a larger factor than in previous years. Might even cause us to trim down some of our 'fun' driving
jamey
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The difference between an office bound and home car is the travel to and from work. The rest is outside the work from home concept


For me it's about 50 miles a day, 4 days a week or roughly 10K a year.

I usually keep my cars for 10 to 15 years so I'm well north of 100K when I get a new vehicle
AgsMyDude
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Cyp0111 said:

Gas , plus lunch and coffee ets. It's prob closer to $600-800 mth


Coffee? Does your company not have coffee?
jamey
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My company does not have coffee and it's a big company
Deputy Travis Junior
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Inflation has outrun wage increases and childcare and energy costs have outrun inflation. The "but it worked in 2019!" argument omits a lot of critical belt tightening that's occurred over the last 2 years. The economy is really messed up and it's leaving a lot of people behind.

I wish there was a political party that gave a crap about the economy and an unbound Fed that's printing bazillions to cover our profligacy.
Cyp0111
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Work in satellite office of a huge company. No coffee
YouBet
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Cyp0111 said:

Work in satellite office of a huge company. No coffee


Coffee is for closers.

Maybe you will get some if you ever produce enough to get called up to corporate HQ?
AgsMyDude
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Cyp0111 said:

Work in satellite office of a huge company. No coffee


Yikes, crazy. Did they before covid?

I'm not sure I could sign on to a company that doesn't provide one of the cheapest amenities possible.
AgOutsideAustin
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YouBet said:

Cyp0111 said:

Work in satellite office of a huge company. No coffee


Coffee is for closers.

Maybe you will get some if you ever produce enough to get called up to corporate HQ?


Maybe he's satisfied with his steak knives and would just like some coffee!
$30,000 Millionaire
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If your company ever hires AT Kearney to look at expenses, you can plan on a terrible environment.

No clocks on walls - those batteries cost money
No coffee and tea, but there may be a Starbucks that pays the company to use their space and that's your amenity (hardly)
Open office concept with no assigned desks to have less space
HVAC shuts off at 6pm
No printers or restricted access printers
Garbage bins in hallways or a central area
No office supplies - you'll have to bring your own
PeekingDuck
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Sounds like Conoco a few years back. Well, they still gave bad coffee but killed everything else.
$30,000 Millionaire
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It only really gets bad when they cut janitorial service to 50% and in lieu of security guards, they put up the 6ft tall man traps.
double aught
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What's a 6ft tall man trap?
JDCAG (NOT Colin)
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double aught said:

What's a 6ft tall man trap?


I think it is basically a little vestibule with 2 access protected doors, so at no point access is completely unrestricted (i.e. when somebody opens the first door, the 2nd door is still closed)
TriAg2010
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AgsMyDude said:

Cyp0111 said:

Work in satellite office of a huge company. No coffee


Yikes, crazy. Did they before covid?

I'm not sure I could sign on to a company that doesn't provide one of the cheapest amenities possible.


Our factory (profit center) didn't have free coffee, but every single other office (cost center) did.
Cyp0111
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It is. Guess we need to pick up our game. Imagine they look at comp packages for the desk and think we can buy our own.
 
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