Using a small BTC investment as a hedge against fiat currency collapse

6,171 Views | 69 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by YouBet
exp
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In reply to northeastag • 2:53p, 10/30/22
northeastag said:
Still waiting for someone, anyone, to demonstrate how to value BTC. An investment without any current or future cashflow. A currency that can't use traditional PPP or IRP valuations.



Someone get this guy a red pill stat. Fiat stinking thinking.
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exp
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 2:55p, 10/30/22
Dollar can survive a long time as global medium of exchange with Bitcoin becoming global reserve asset. The death of fiat will probably take a while. Owning Bitcoin is a no brainer in a forthcoming cbdc world regardless of how long you think it'll take.
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redsquirrelAG
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In reply to exp • 4:13p, 10/30/22
exp said:
Dollar can survive a long time as global medium of exchange with Bitcoin becoming global reserve asset. The death of fiat will probably take a while. Owning Bitcoin is a no brainer in a forthcoming cbdc world regardless of how long you think it'll take.


Let's revisit this in 10 days lmao
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Adverse Event
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In reply to redsquirrelAG • 4:20p, 10/30/22
#Remindme 11/9

Something significant happening on 11/9?
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exp
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4:25p, 10/30/22
Here's a great macro conversation for anyone truly pondering bitcoins role

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exp
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7:42p, 10/30/22
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to exp • 8:09p, 10/30/22
exp said:
Dollar can survive a long time as global medium of exchange with Bitcoin becoming global reserve asset. The death of fiat will probably take a while. Owning Bitcoin is a no brainer in a forthcoming cbdc world regardless of how long you think it'll take.


Why would the US use the world's only real Navy to protect a currency it doesn't control? It's a cold hard fact that global trade exists because the US Navy facilitates it and part of the reason is the dollar's position as global reserve. In a world where the dollar isn't the reserve there is no global trade. At all. At that point nobody will care what the reserve is.
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YouBet
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In reply to redsquirrelAG • 8:12p, 10/30/22
redsquirrelAG said:
exp said:
Dollar can survive a long time as global medium of exchange with Bitcoin becoming global reserve asset. The death of fiat will probably take a while. Owning Bitcoin is a no brainer in a forthcoming cbdc world regardless of how long you think it'll take.


Let's revisit this in 10 days lmao


WHAT DO YOU KNOW?
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to Decay • 9:09p, 10/30/22
Decay said:
Does the "Navy protects the dollar" build in things like "our incompetent admin is looking to cut spending on the Navy by 20-30%"?

We could be one conflict from China away from our fleet being at the bottom of the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Ummm, not really sure how to respond here. What you're suggesting isn't even possible, literally China cannot do it. Why would you think they can?
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exp
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 7:20a, 10/31/22
I believe you're thinking inside the recency box bias. I'm not saying a money transition will be easy or clean but in a deglobalizing world there will be a demand for trustless commodity money. Bitcoins properties as a digital bearer instrument with no counter party risk and absolute scarcity make it ideal for global trade when global trust is lacking.
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Adverse Event
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In reply to exp • 8:46a, 10/31/22
exp said:


Amazing.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to exp • 10:52a, 10/31/22
exp said:
I believe you're thinking inside the recency box bias. I'm not saying a money transition will be easy or clean but in a deglobalizing world there will be a demand for trustless commodity money. Bitcoins properties as a digital bearer instrument with no counter party risk and absolute scarcity make it ideal for global trade when global trust is lacking.
IMO the BTC as global reserve crowd simply lacks an understanding of the world we live in, the history of reserve currencies and a flawed understanding of how deglobalization is likely to unfold. My biggest gripe about my fellow libertarians is that we have a "in a perfect world" perspective but lack an understanding of how things really are. I said I wasn't going to go into a lengthy post on this but here we are. You must understand the facts of the world we live in and how we got here to figure out where it goes in the future.

I don't see a clear understanding that the #1 element of globalization is the physical security of shipping lanes and goods in transit in those shipping lanes. I keep beating this drum and for some reason it gets dismissed out of hand but it is critical. None of this matters without physical security. First the definition of globalization is all nations being able to trade with all other nations without concern for the physical security of those goods in transit anywhere in the world. Prior to Bretton Woods there was no globalization. Instead we had a world of mostly Europe-centric rival colonial systems whose reach was limited to exactly their ability to protect trade vessels on the open waters. In that era Britain, France, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Japan all had sufficient naval capacity to provide physical security within their colonial system so that goods moved within their systems but trade between systems was unusual and often looked like war. "Reserve currency" during the colonial era was based on the strength of that currency which was based on a lot of factors both social and economic. When it changed it was a reflection of the perception that another colonial system was stronger and thus that currency was seen as a safer investment. At no time during this era was "all trade" conducted in Pounds or Lira or whatever was the reserve at that time because there was no trade between colonial systems.

Another major component of the current world is that currencies are traded against each other but all currencies are traded against the USD and no other nation-backed currency is preferred over the USD. So for all of our hand wringing about the devaluation of the dollar literally every other nation-backed currency is worse. In the colonial era currencies were not traded against each other and capital simply shifted from one currency to another.

Simply put the colonial system that existed prior to WWII does not exist and no lessons learned from that period with regard to "reserve status" matter. This world has never existed and as it unwinds we don't have a clear understanding of what's going to happen. Historically the primary job of governments is to provide physical security both at home and for goods being traded into and out of the country and right now all other nations are incapable of doing the latter. We do that for literally everyone and part of that "service agreement" is that trade is going to be conducted in dollars. We've yet to see it happen but I expect to see a day where we don't protect products in or out of Russia or China or some other BRICS nation as punishment for not playing the game by our rules. Is it really crazy to think that we only protect trade for our trading partners? I mean that's all of history prior to WWII.

With the understanding that nobody but us is capable of providing even their own physical security you have to understand that in a world where the USD is no longer the "global reserve" there is no globalization. We are not going to provide security if it doesn't benefit us and once we're done it's done. That's a simple fact. Physical security is the #1 element of all of this. It's the #1 element of all of life. Everything breaks down immediately without it and at that point the world has significant food and/or energy problems in Africa, China and the Middle East at a minimum and quite obviously a population that is starving in the dark is not going to be interested in a currency reliant on stable energy supplies. It's quite possible deglobalization is very violent and very disorderly and looks more like Mad Max in some places than what we have today. At a minimum BTC as reserve requires a world that's stable and the next 10-20 years will definitely not be stable. Until stability returns on the other side people are going to be more worried about physical security and their ability to eat than they are about their wealth being stolen due to devaluation of their currency.

The world is breaking down in much bigger ways than just currency devaluation, that's the point here.
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 11:00a, 10/31/22
I'd find you hard pressed to find a more concentrated group of humans educated on global policies, currencies (historical and current), physical and digital protection/privacy, war/violence projection (Jason lowery, specifically) than the humans participating in and advocating for Bitcoin.

Have you taken 10 minutes to read the white paper I posted yet?
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exp
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 11:04a, 10/31/22
I appreciate your response and certainly have no crystal ball to predict the way complex global interactions will play out on a given timeframe. I certainly understand your point about globalization requiring a global police force, etc. I also understand dollar relativism. I think fundamentally a lot of the current global distress such as wars and wasteful government spending is a direct result of fiat money printing that requires no basis in physical reality.

We do not purport to solve all the world's problems, but we understand very clearly the problems with government controlled fiat currency. We also understand the shortcomings of gold that allowed fiat regimes to take hold.

This is complex stuff and it's okay if we disagree about what happens in the future.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to Adverse Event • 11:06a, 10/31/22
Adverse Event said:
exp said:


Amazing.
That's really well done. To be clear I LOVE the idea of a world not run by the political establishment and to that end your enthusiasm is a bit contagious. It's just not going to happen this way. Like I posted it's all about physical security which is provided at a large scale by nations and those nations will expect a measure of control in exchange for that physical security and not even controlling their own currency is not a world governments will be willing to live in. As globalization breaks down we'll see significant parts of the world that aren't even able to maintain adequate physical security which means this is going to be very messy and very violent unfortunately and I don't think that's a world where BTC can thrive.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to exp • 11:10a, 10/31/22
exp said:
I appreciate your response and certainly have no crystal ball to predict the way complex global interactions will play out on a given timeframe. I certainly understand your point about globalization requiring a global police force, etc. I also understand dollar relativism. I think fundamentally a lot of the current global distress such as wars and wasteful government spending is a direct result of fiat money printing that requires no basis in physical reality.

We do not purport to solve all the world's problems, but we understand very clearly the problems with government controlled fiat currency. We also understand the shortcomings of gold that allowed fiat regimes to take hold.

This is complex stuff and it's okay if we disagree about what happens in the future.
This is exactly right. The entire reason globalization still exists 30 years after it no longer matters to the US from a security perspective is because the fraud and corruption of the fiat era has made "them" enormously wealthy and given them immense power over their fellow man. On that we agree completely.

I'd love to be wrong about the future because my version includes probably 2 billion people dying of starvation and/or violence. It's not a pretty site to be sure.
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exp
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 2:14p, 10/31/22
Loyal Ag, have you heard of Jason Lowery? He has a really unique take on how Bitcoin mining hash rate will be the cyber equivalent of projecting physical power through watts to defend property. He's a Space Force national defense fellow working on his dissertation about this at MIT right now. It just might resonate with your understanding of the world. Let me see if I can find a good link to his content and share it with you to check out.



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exp
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2:18p, 10/31/22


More to come
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exp
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2:21p, 10/31/22












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Deluxe
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In reply to exp • 2:47p, 10/31/22
exp said:
Brilliant.

Aside from anything to do with Bitcoin/money, abstract vs physical power and the Darwinian (or lack thereof) nature of each is such an insightful framing of many modern day issues.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to exp • 6:17p, 10/31/22
I haven't but I'll give it a look. If I don't respond here by this time next week bump this. I know that's not fair to ask but we've had a very close relative die and I'm going to be out of pocket most of the week and this looks like a lot of info to consume. I definitely want to know but now isn't a good time.

TIA
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Adverse Event
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 9:34p, 10/31/22
Sorry for your loss.

Here.
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exp
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11:01p, 11/1/22
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to Adverse Event • 10:15p, 11/2/22
Adverse Event said:
Sorry for your loss.

Here.


Thanks, AE. Wife's brother died of cancer this weekend. Melanoma removed last fall came back with a vengeance as a brain tumor. Diagnosed Sept 7, he died Saturday. Been a tough two months for sure.
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Adverse Event
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 4:22a, 11/3/22
Ugh... my uncle died from Melanoma a few years back after in had moved out of Texas and I missed seeing him before he passed.

I still kick myself about it. Cancer fkn sucks.

[Removed multiple paragraphs on fiat healthcare/food and relationship with Big Cancer/Big End of Life care stripping us of dignity and wealth, not the time for a diatribe]
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Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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11:34a, 11/3/22
Lawrence Lepard - Fix The Money, Fix The World - NOIC 2022:

https://vimeo.com/766100675/dd0e53e941

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit
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2:31p, 11/4/22
Article: Bitcoin will 5x in the next 3 years, with or without you

This is the clearest and most concise case for investing in Bitcoin I have ever read. It's written by Croesus (aka Jesse Myers), who is a Stanford MBA who went from a Bitcoin skeptic to a toxic maxi over a period of a few years. He recently revealed his true identity and started a substack.

https://jessemyers.substack.com/p/bitcoin-will-5x-in-the-next-3-years?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
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exp
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11:34a, 11/7/22


Jason Lowery bringing the signal
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Deluxe
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In reply to exp • 1:44p, 11/7/22
The future is revealing itself. Will be interesting to see how fast Musk can integrate the concept into Twitter.
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mrmill3218
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9:24a, 11/8/22
Anyone starting to feel like BTC is about to break out again?
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Deluxe
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In reply to mrmill3218 • 9:28a, 11/8/22
mrmill3218 said:
Anyone starting to feel like BTC is about to break out again?

I think more shake outs need to happen first. One of those shake outs is happening in real time.
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ramblin_ag02
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2:09p, 11/9/22
Have tiny amount of bitcoin so I keep a broad track. It seems to trend pretty close to speculative tech commodities. So I don't really see it holding value well in a crash. Seems like it's dropped more than most other investments every time the economy takes a hit.
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jagvocate
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6:53p, 11/9/22
Buy BTC when it is equal to or less than 2.5oz of gold, not before.

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MRB10
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8:09p, 11/9/22
Or just buy a little bit at frequent intervals and you won't have to keep worrying about such things.
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YouBet
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8:31p, 11/9/22
Like I do with all of my investments, I buy the true low and then sell it at its highest high.
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