Why DCA is better than trying to time the BTC market

This is stunning.

Russia announced it has over $200B in crypto.

11% of the entire world cryptocurrency market cap would be a shockingly high number for a country with barely 2% of the world population.

Either way an admission — just like the Cuban statement in September — that they are taking this seriously. https://t.co/DGLbhEg0xA

— Alex Gladstein 🌋 ⚡ (@gladstein) February 1, 2022

I would include the "What is Money?" Series on YouTube by Robert Breedlove. I use to think I understood finances.........until I listened to this guy

A good daily morning channel on YouTube is the "Wolf of All Streets" with Scott Melker. Good cup of coffee show with some good humor, news, and analysis.

I've been to some MAJOR Bitcoin mining facilities under construction in the past few weeks. I cannot share pictures, but they are building like crazy and spending major dollars.

CaptnCarl said:

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I've been to some MAJOR Bitcoin mining facilities under construction in the past few weeks. I cannot share pictures, but they are building like crazy and spending major dollars.

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GOTTA GET THAT HASHRATE UP!

It's gonna be fun boys.

What do you do that you're touring bitcoin mining facilities?

Biggest thing is helping bring in the power. The mining pods take a huge amount of load so it's a major electrical infrastructure project. The crypto miners have consumed the transformer market supply.

Edit to directly answer your question: we sign an agreement with the utility for them to provide a large load at a specific site. Sell the site to crypto miners, with an agreement they use us for engineering, procurement, construction. We provide a turnkey crypto mining facility at a much accelerated schedule. Then we broker their power procurement with a % cut.

Love that first video linked in the OP. After a lot of reading it's the first thing I saw that really made it all "click".

When anyone asks me what Bitcoin is and wth is a blockchain anyway I send them that and tell them we'll talk after they've watched it.

Very cool. I wish I was back in the energy brokering biz right now. I'd be all over the mining industry busting down doors.

As a Class of 2021 #Bitcoin-er, I would like to unofficially-officially welcome the Class of 2022. Buckle up for a legacy impacting journey. First things first: it is critical that you to develop a proper framework regarding #BTC. Attached is your required reading list. Thread 🧵

— U.S. Olympian Johnny Quinn (@JohnnyQuinnUSA) February 2, 2022

Good list as well.

AE, halfway through The Bitcoin Standard based on your rec, and it's a home run of a book! Super interesting to hear about how our monetary policy since we have started recording history has affected what our governments are able to do.

Obviously, he's very pro Bitcoin, but the first 10 or so chapters on the history of monetary policy ought to be required reading for everyone.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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Why DCA is better than trying to time the BTC market

This is stunning.

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Great perspective

If you like that historical referencing, you'll really enjoy sapiens.


Separately:

Bitcoin protocol can be copied
Bitcoin blockchain can be copied
Bitcoin infrastructure can't be copied
Bitcoin currency can't be copied
Bitcoin network can't be copied

— Jameson Lopp (@lopp) February 2, 2022

This is gonna be a good Twitter spaces, put it on the calendar

I’m very excited to host a Twitter Spaces on UBI and #Bitcoin with @jack.

Joined by: @PrestonPysh @nic__carter @ODELL @Dennis_Porter_ @bigmarh @ck_SNARKs

February 4th at 6:45 PST. Click the link below to add to your calendar: https://t.co/Vvl1YgYWrI pic.twitter.com/MgtXg81Shl

— Aarika for CA-32 🍎🦉 (@AarikaRhodes) February 2, 2022

UBI bad
BTC good
UBI BTC... ehhhh

UBI isn't neither good nor bad. The game theory behind the UBI, ie the incentives, are what we need to get right.

Just shoveling cash to the masses isn't a solution. It'd ALL about the incentives.

Champ Bailey said:

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AE, halfway through The Bitcoin Standard based on your rec, and it's a home run of a book! Super interesting to hear about how our monetary policy since we have started recording history has affected what our governments are able to do.

Obviously, he's very pro Bitcoin, but the first 10 or so chapters on the history of monetary policy ought to be required reading for everyone.

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It might even be better to get to a stopping point on the history in BTC STANDARD, and start Sapiens, since it goes through that same history from a organizational and war perspective, more Dunbar Number stuff.

Interesting convo yesterday with Michael Saylor and Jack Dorsey discussion Bitcoin/Lightning integration into businesses:

Thanks for posting this, I missed the event yesterday.

administrative errors said:

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Champ Bailey said:

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AE, halfway through The Bitcoin Standard based on your rec, and it's a home run of a book! Super interesting to hear about how our monetary policy since we have started recording history has affected what our governments are able to do.

Obviously, he's very pro Bitcoin, but the first 10 or so chapters on the history of monetary policy ought to be required reading for everyone.

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It might even be better to get to a stopping point on the history in BTC STANDARD, and start Sapiens, since it goes through that same history from a organizational and war perspective, more Dunbar Number stuff.

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Thanks, I'll check it out.

Yeah man, I say it because in college I took a significant amount of summer courses one summer and ended up having anthropology and art history back to back. The ages we studied lined up amazingly and really gave a more holistic view of the times we studied. Very very very cool summer.

Deluxe said:

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I would look at Plan B's S2F analysis relative to each halving cycle rather than from month to month. His S2F model still be right, he just got out over his skis with his year-end 2021 predictions (as did a number of other analysts).

The beauty with Bitcoin is that the short term predictions ultimately don't matter. I would discourage people from paying attention to them. The market moves in the short term based on whale manipulations and over-levered derivative position liquidations. It wouldn't surprise me if some sophisticated traders with big bags used exuberant price predictions against the market.

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I think this is an accurate context for viewing Plan B's S2F modeling as a general guide. It's more about the long term macro trend here rather than the 3 month peak & valley oscillations. The model really makes educated guesstimates around 12-36 month time frames related to price action as related to halvening cycles.
I believe the saying is, when in doubt, zoom out.

Also, I don't fault the model for not being able to factor in our completely inept and mostly malicious administration & Federal reserve that are making so many pushes to push aggressive inflation down the general publics throat. Like it or not, for the time being at least, the USD value of BTC is still roughly correlated with the over-leveraged and glaringly exposed traditional stock market and related capital therein.


My father in law is a big "Gold over everything as store of value" guy. The crude analogy I use with him for attempted explanation :
- Imagine there are 21 million gold bars (GB) in existence on the planet. The end. No more can be made, found/mined, etc.
~19 million are claimed in some form or fashion (held in vaults, lost/destroyed, etc.) This leaves roughly 2 million remaining bars (GB) that can be claimed/purchased.
- Let's assume that we are moving back to the Gold standard as backing for USD.
- There are roughly 8 BILLION people on planet earth currently. ~330 MILLION people in the USA.
Divided equally, for the USA alone, this is .06 GB per person. If you're dividing the remaining 2 million only, that drops to .01 GB per USA citizen.
- Based on this scenario, it seems fairly straight forward to me that I want to accumulate as much of the remaining gold bars as I possibly can so that I will have an advantage over MILLIONS, possibly BILLIONS of people.
All of a sudden I feel the urge to DCA. BRB.

💥BREAKING: Fidelity has been accumulating #Bitcoin since 2014

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) February 2, 2022

Should financial institutions, governments, and/or politicians be required to disclose their BTC holdings?

If you're interested in donating some sats to the Canadian truckers, go here:

BTC for truckers

The Strike app is an easy way to do this.

I could argue either side.

You're obviously more knowledgeable than I which is why I ask. Such transparency seems to be contradiction to the anonymity of blockchains. Depending on the disclosures, enough datapoints will be created that make certain features of the chain completely traceable. We already see this is some aspects of the trading/transfer markets where required transparency has in some ways impacted anonymity (whether investors know it or not).

Let's face it, there is no anonymity at play in nearly any aspect of our economy currently, between metadata hoovering, transaction data sharing, the analytics, machine learning and AI, we have no privacy, even with cash.

Bitcoin allows some obfuscation of send/receive data but it is psuedonymous, not anonymous. If certain hard to achieve metrics aren't reached the "nymity" becomes transparent.

There are features already built and improving upon for ease of use for additional layers of obfuscation and/or completely private anonymous transactions. One of them was Taproot, and the big one is CoinJoin.

As far as whether institutions or govts can/should/would/or how it would be enforced if they disobey... it's a tough question.

I personally think the govt should be held to the highest standards of transparency. That each govt institute have publicized wallets with funding, and proof of fund movements that the public can quickly and efficiently audit.

It sure would be nice to know how these foreign aid billion$ pallets flowed through the globe, and whether they made it back into certain campaigns or slush funds, I suspect a large number did make its way back into politicians and their handlers' pockets.



Alternatively, there's excessive value at the privacy our govt maintains about where it sends money and resources. It's not a clean answer.

Maybe a hybrid answer is best. Certain institutions are allowed to maintain complete private records, obfuscated wallets and others have to be completely transparent. I think that alone would solve many issues of trust with the collective "human energy/output" [money/GDP is an abstraction of this energy] produced in this country, and globally.

"Bitcoin has no value because it's infinitely divisible" pic.twitter.com/zDq8jNQU7V

— Alongside (@alongsidefi) February 2, 2022

I forget who it was today, maybe tysker that was complaining about divisibility.

administrative errors said:

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I forget who it was today, maybe tysker that was complaining about divisibility.

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probably was me, but my issue is not about value as much as I question the scarcity argument when it is infinitely leverageable and monetizable by banks, governments, and large holders.

Thanks for the resposne btw, The obfuscation part is really the stumbling block and where the rubber rally hits the road for large institutional adoption,

Some aspects of life we dont care if everyone knows about and others aspects we'd prefer to keep private. And these are different and ever-changing targets for all parties. In every cooperative system there is still an incentive to cheat. Cooperation is optimal long-term strategy for a networked system itself but not necessarily for individual actors acting in the short run. Incentivizing, not coercing the good' behavior (whatever we deem that to be) is just one requirement of any sustainable value-added crypto

Champ Bailey said:

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AE, halfway through The Bitcoin Standard based on your rec, and it's a home run of a book! Super interesting to hear about how our monetary policy since we have started recording history has affected what our governments are able to do.

Obviously, he's very pro Bitcoin, but the first 10 or so chapters on the history of monetary policy ought to be required reading for everyone.

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Completely agree. It's one of the best economic reads I've experienced. It reads like Sowell to me but actually a bit more fluid.

I just read the section where he rants on modern artists. That was kind of out of left field and pretty funny. He's a bit passionate on that topic. Lol.

administrative errors said:

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💥BREAKING: Fidelity has been accumulating #Bitcoin since 2014

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) February 2, 2022

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I can't wait to find out about Goldman's buying BTC for the past several years after they wrote an entire white paper less than 6 months ago completely trashing it and recommending their clients stay away from it.

YouBet said:

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administrative errors said:

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💥BREAKING: Fidelity has been accumulating #Bitcoin since 2014

— Bitcoin Archive 🗄🚀🌔 (@BTC_Archive) February 2, 2022

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I can't wait to find out about Goldman's buying BTC for the past several years after they wrote an entire white paper less than 6 months ago completely trashing it and recommending their clients stay away from it.

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But that is two different arms of the firm. It may not be appropriate for GS' clients but they sure has hell want some of the flow. Big brokers often will say its not an investable asset but still need a functional inventory to handle requested transactions for clients. Which is why they hedge and use derivatives to take the exposure and maybe even capital expense off their books.