I think the biggest difference is scarcity. There's only so many of those physical Michael Jordan rookie cards floating around.

With a digital collectible, the trepidation most have is that the product can be duplicated with just a few clicks. Now, they can state "limited edition only 25,000 of these" but there's nothing stopping them from a "new print" or a "v2" or releasing more of the item. Sure right now it doesn't serve them to do so as it would hurt the overall market trust, but never underestimate a company's greediness and wanting to strike while the iron is hot.

No one is firing up the Fleer presses and making '87 Jordan rookie cards. There's a finite amount of them out there, and no more being produced.

Now, you can make the case that it's not all that different from the physical art game where an artist may really paint 100 of something and the distributor/broker/whatever-they-call-it don't make that public and release 1 every so years claiming it "found" to keep scarcity, but naturally with a digital collectible how "scarce" something will remain is a lot more questionable.

Personally I think this TopShots will be dead within 2 years and they won't be worth a penny - but there will be a lot of money made in the meantime (and a lot of bagholders).

Playing Devil's advocate, there is no reason for the company to keep printing more of the moments that they have already announced are limited to a certain number. That would kill their business model and destroy any goodwill they have created with investors, especially the investors who have spent the most and have a lot of the rare moments. If they do that, I agree they won't be around long. But I can't imagine them doing that. Therefore, although your scenario may be technically possible, I can't envision it happening.

They have endless moments and players to pick from. So if they want more cash, they can just choose new players and new moments to mint, instead of going back on their promises and raising the limits of moments that have already been made. One risk is that it's not clear how the creation of many new moments will affect the value of the current moments. For instance, right now there is only 1 Lamelo Ball moment. What happens when there are 10 Lamelo Ball moments a couple years from now? People are assuming the early/rookie moments and the early rare moments will retain the highest value. But that's not a for sure thing once there are new rare moments of the same player created.

mavsfan4ever said:

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Playing Devil's advocate, there is no reason for the company to keep printing more of the moments that they have already announced are limited to a certain number. That would kill their business model and destroy any goodwill they have created with investors, especially the investors who have spent the most and have a lot of the rare moments. If they do that, I agree they won't be around long. But I can't imagine them doing that. Therefore, although your scenario may be technically possible, I can't envision it happening.

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There's the same reason they created the moments in the first place - to sell more of them.

Or you have slight alterations of the "moments". Limited edition runs. Anniversary editions. Holiday editions.

It's the same greediness that killed the sports card market back in the 90s/2000s. But the manufacturers made a **** ton of money.

Quote:

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They have endless moments and players to pick from. So if they want more cash, they can just choose new players and new moments to mint, instead of going back on their promises and raising the limits of moments that have already been made. One risk is that it's not clear how the creation of many new moments will affect the value of the current moments. For instance, right now there is only 1 Lamelo Ball moment. What happens when there are 10 Lamelo Ball moments a couple years from now? People are assuming the early/rookie moments and the early rare moments will retain the highest value. But that's not a for sure thing once there are new rare moments of the same player created.

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You know the answer to that - it will dilute the price of all of the moments. There will always be something newer and something cooler -- that's the whole business model, digitally produce/acquire more and more things they can sell.

I mean, this isn't the first digital collectible market of it's kind - video games like WoW had large real-world markets for digital goods. I never played the game and don't know much about those markets, but I would imagine there were once "rare" items that over time became less and less rare and commanded less real world money.

I also have nothing to back this up, but the market as a whole didn't really strike me as very organic. I think there was probably a very large sum of money (or percentage shares of the company) paid out to influencers and early adopters to hype this market up. This thing came out of the gate with thousands of dollars being spent in the marketplace flippantly - I have a sneaking suspicion a large % of those early transaction amounts that were being advertised was just the marketing arm moving money around to simulate large activity.

Any of y'all jumping in the queue to try and grab one of these Rare packs? I just now found this thread so looking forward to jumping in on the discussion here as I found topshots through the DFS landscape and have been dabbling for a month or so.

Update- looks like Pack drop pushed until tomorrow. The way this thing has blown up in popularity is insane.

Proposition Joe said:

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mavsfan4ever said:

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Playing Devil's advocate, there is no reason for the company to keep printing more of the moments that they have already announced are limited to a certain number. That would kill their business model and destroy any goodwill they have created with investors, especially the investors who have spent the most and have a lot of the rare moments. If they do that, I agree they won't be around long. But I can't imagine them doing that. Therefore, although your scenario may be technically possible, I can't envision it happening.

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There's the same reason they created the moments in the first place - to sell more of them.

Or you have slight alterations of the "moments". Limited edition runs. Anniversary editions. Holiday editions.

It's the same greediness that killed the sports card market back in the 90s/2000s. But the manufacturers made a **** ton of money.

Quote:

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They have endless moments and players to pick from. So if they want more cash, they can just choose new players and new moments to mint, instead of going back on their promises and raising the limits of moments that have already been made. One risk is that it's not clear how the creation of many new moments will affect the value of the current moments. For instance, right now there is only 1 Lamelo Ball moment. What happens when there are 10 Lamelo Ball moments a couple years from now? People are assuming the early/rookie moments and the early rare moments will retain the highest value. But that's not a for sure thing once there are new rare moments of the same player created.

---

You know the answer to that - it will dilute the price of all of the moments. There will always be something newer and something cooler -- that's the whole business model, digitally produce/acquire more and more things they can sell.

I mean, this isn't the first digital collectible market of it's kind - video games like WoW had large real-world markets for digital goods. I never played the game and don't know much about those markets, but I would imagine there were once "rare" items that over time became less and less rare and commanded less real world money.

I also have nothing to back this up, but the market as a whole didn't really strike me as very organic. I think there was probably a very large sum of money (or percentage shares of the company) paid out to influencers and early adopters to hype this market up. This thing came out of the gate with thousands of dollars being spent in the marketplace flippantly - I have a sneaking suspicion a large % of those early transaction amounts that were being advertised was just the marketing arm moving money around to simulate large activity.

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I don't disagree with some of your thoughts. When my buddies and I initially decided to go in on this, we were thinking similarly to you in that this will likely explode for 1-2 years but then may fade away into nothing. Now, after learning much more about it and being involved, we aren't as sure that it won't be around long term.

I disagree with your point about them creating more of the limited moments. They have repeatedly promised they won't do that and that's the one sticking point that all users of the site agree on. If they did that, even for one moment, their business would immediately crumble. And there is no financial benefit for them to do it if they can just create tons of other moments. But I admit that because it is technically possible, then it should still be considered a risk.

I'm not sure if new moments will dilute old moments. New physical cards don't dilute the old physical rookie cards. If this lasts a long time (big if), the series 1 and series 2 moments will be the oldest and some of the rarest moments available. That should allow them to retain value and increase over time. But yes, when they put out some new iconic highlights, that could dilute old moments.

I agree that some of the big sales seem suspicious, and I don't trust some of the market sales for the extremely high dollar stuff. It seems like an easy way for them to get attention from media outlets.

But I don't think they've paid much to influencers, at least from what I've seen. I haven't seen any famous celebrities touting it much. Recently, some social media places like Barstool are picking it up, and some low level NBA stars are starting to talk about it. But that's to be expected as it gains popularity. Top Shot did not just start last month. It started back in the summer of 2020, and almost no one heard about it until the last month or so. When it started, there were almost no users and there weren't a ton of high dollar transactions right away. In fact, if you were an early adopter, you could basically get all the packs you wanted because there weren't even enough people on the site to buy them. It's not like they hired Shaq and Kim Kardashian to promote it and came out of the gate running.

I got burned with E-Topps in the early 2000's. At least with them, you could get a great looking, sealed card with a small production, delivered after IPO.

I would be hesitant to get too deep into this...

Got through yesterday and snagged a pack. None of the big fish moments, but a few low # ones from McCollum, Lou Williams, Jokic and others

So reading a little on this. Am I correct that these moments are available on line in other areas.

But people are planning to use these as a cryptocurrency?

Full disclosure as I do not dabble in crypto's at all. And I don't think I would do anything in this space. I was really just curious.

There's a pretty giant pack drop happening right now (600,000 packs). A good chance for new people or people who are just curious to grab one and see what it's all about. At $9 a pack, the risk is pretty minimal.

BO297 said:

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So reading a little on this. Am I correct that these moments are available on line in other areas.

But people are planning to use these as a cryptocurrency?

Full disclosure as I do not dabble in crypto's at all. And I don't think I would do anything in this space. I was really just curious.

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No, not really. The Moments are digital collectibles, not digital currency. You can use cash or crypto to purchase the Moments. They're also only available on the Top Shot platform which is licensed by the NBA, so they don't exist in other areas or marketplaces.

Thanks. The site I was reading was obviously incorrect. So these moments are not on YouTube, ESPN.com or anywhere else?

in line...78000 people in front of me!

BO297 said:

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Thanks. The site I was reading was obviously incorrect. So these moments are not on YouTube, ESPN.com or anywhere else?

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Ah, that's what you meant. So the Moment is a serialized version of a video highlight. So yes, the highlight itself consists of the same video of a dunk or something you can watch on YouTube. The same way you can view an image of the Mona Lisa on Wikipedia whenever you want, but there's only one actual painting in the Louvre.

You can view the highlight anywhere, you can even view the actual Moment that belongs to someone on Top Shot itself (like that dude who paid $208K for that LeBron Moment the other day) just by going to their profile and viewing their collection. The difference is that person is the only one who has agency over that Moment (IE they can keep, buy, sell, or give it away).

Transactions disabled. Signups disabled. Yeesh

https://decrypt.co/59635/wheres-the-trust-in-the-150-million-nft-art-market?&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=feed&utm_source=coinbase

Fascinating, where do you guys fall on whether appropriated art is as or more valuable than original?

Hadn't been on the board in a while.....nice to see this thread blew up and a few more people got in!

Have had no success with recent pack drops....biggest mistakes I've made is quickly flipping my "The Gift" moment and my 2nd run of Cool Cats.

When I started this thread, I was hoping there might have been some interest in pooling resources together to go in on a big higher priced moment....I feel like the easy money has been made tho now.....still, people I talk to think the most 'under valued' moments on the site are the golds and holos that are still pricier.

I have my Dapper account ready for the next holo pack if I'm lucky to get one or ready for the next market dip, but right now I'm just hanging back and waiting. Don't see much value in trying to go in right now and buy.

I agree on the holo items or the reward moments when completing a challenge.

I'm sitting on my moments for now...kicking myself for opening my premium pack from Friday. I think there will be a lot of value in those unopened premium/LE packs as time goes on.

Was able to get my first pack last Friday in the NBA All Star drop. I just sold an Immanuel Quickley moment for $850. Still holding a Steph Curry LE. I'm torn on that one. It's #324/2021.

I posted previous. I have a valuable graded mostly
Mint collections of cards that has risen substantially. All inventoried and insured. I'm sorry but I don't get NFTs? So your buying a moment in sports history? This a fad and will crash. What do you own of value? I don't get it at all. This is a result of too much liquidity in the markets. Yeah I'm not buying tangible cards or collectibles through NFTs and blockchain the government can ultimately crack down and start taxing your .000001% shares of a piece of art or an nba moment. How does that have value. Explain it like I'm 10. This smells like a scam.

I've been collecting for 30 years on and off and I have zero interest in this

I suppose it's better than penny stocks

The Pilot said:

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Was able to get my first pack last Friday in the NBA All Star drop. I just sold an Immanuel Quickley moment for $850. Still holding a Steph Curry LE. I'm torn on that one. It's #324/2021.

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Lucky! I have only been able to get in on one pack drop which has resulted in a few garbo cards. Been trying but I'm not close enough in line

Hendrix said:

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I posted previous. I have a valuable graded mostly
Mint collections of cards that has risen substantially. All inventoried and insured. I'm sorry but I don't get NFTs? So your buying a moment in sports history? This a fad and will crash. What do you own of value? I don't get it at all. This is a result of too much liquidity in the markets. Yeah I'm not buying tangible cards or collectibles through NFTs and blockchain the government can ultimately crack down and start taxing your .000001% shares of a piece of art or an nba moment. How does that have value. Explain it like I'm 10. This smells like a scam.

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Explain why those paper cards you own have any value then?

/popcorn

Because I own several cards that are old and say 1/50 in the world that exist in that condition. There a huge scarcity premium for quality rare stuff. There's 150-200 PSA 10 gem
Mint Jordan rookies. They go for 250,000+. A PSA 5 is worthless. I own a really rare Wayne Gretzky card. It's PSA 10 and only 6 exist in that condition and was a limited run so only 75-100 have ever been graded. Have a couple tiger woods rookie autos that go for 60k a piece today and growing. Bought them for 2,500 each. They made 900 that he signed and that's it. Own a PSA 10 auto of Richard petty and dale Earnhardt in PSA 10. 6 exist in that condition. I can keep going.

You didn't explain why they are valuable though. It's just cardboard and ink.

I'm sorry if you don't get it. I've explained it best I can. Quality is scarcity and drives a tremendous amount of value to n old HOF rookies. I've made about 20-25x in the last five years on what I owned. You have to really know what you're doing. Have fun reselling that Dorsey tweet for 2.9mm. SMH. As I understand it in an nft nba deal you don't own copyrights or anything and it can be duplicated. Answer my question. Why did a digital clip of a lebron dunk go for 71k? You know how many epic dunks lebron has? When friends come over do you sit them all down and say check this out. I own a piece of the dunk on block chain but there are no royalties copyright and it can be duplicated. How in the hell is that valuable? Sorry but this is a huge scam. What I own is tangible and will never be taxed and they're not making anymore.

So it's valuable because it's rare?

Why? Do you have have it protected?

How often do you hold it without a protective cover on it? I imagine it being displayed on some nice memorabilia display or is it tucked away in a safe?

When your friends come over do they just gush over your collection of rare useless memorabilia or do they just look at you like "this guy thinks these pieces of **** are valuable?"

Humans are weird bunch and value is as subjective and unrealistic from one thing to the next.

Let's just agree to disagree. Have fun with you nft portfolio. I'll stick with what I have. Inventoried and insured
And going up in price tremendously every year. Can you insure an nft? GL. Peace.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Every card I own is graded and slabbed, ie protected. Again go all in on NFTs and we'll compare values in a few years. I'm done with this argument.

Most valuable are in a safe. I don't display anything. It's an investment.

No I'm honestly curious as I don't see value in either position.

But nft's at least have a blockchain based timestamp of creation and an immutable chain of custody.

I also don't see value in collecting stamps, rare coins, mistakes, trading cards, etc. Its truly a mystery to me.

Humans and their penchant to collect and add meaning to their collections is what makes it valuable. It's all subjectively valuable and unobjectively worthless. The only value is what someone else is willing to pay to hold onto it [there's only 6 left in the entire world! You could be one of the 6 people! Such elite, much wow.]

One other thing. I'm hearing NFTs take a ton of energy to run. Like a **** ton of energy. Mine are slabbed in enclosed protective holders and sit in a safe. The gov will never tax that. Great way to hide money. Btw. Lebron still has a lot of dunks left. Lol. You're buying a digital moment? Lol. I can just YouTube it if I want to see it. That worthless Dorsey tweet takes the cake though. Sorry bud. I don't get it.

One other thing. I not the only one on Texags. Would love to get others opinions on both sides of the aisle.

Both are fads. Pure speculation.