Just wait until $15/hr minimum wage.

OP, it all depends on your time horizon. if your'e within 10 yrs of expected retirement you may want to reduce your equity exposure some but then again maybe not. When you say majority is in growth equities what % are you talking about? Do you have some allocation to dividend makers. That's another way to change allocation without completely losing stock market upside. A lot of advisers seem to be expecting upside because of all of the liquidity.

chris1515 said:

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I don't see how we avoid some big inflation soon. So you'd be a fool to be in cash when that hits.

I've been shifting out of individual stocks and index funds into some actively managed mutual funds. For one, my stock picking and timing seems inferior to the SP500, and I'm hoping the active mgmt will do a little better when we start getting into a correction.

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Regardless of what you decide to invest your wealth in, you don't "take your money out." Chris hits the nail on the head here - you are either in stocks, bonds, real estate, US dollars, foreign investments, bitcoin, cattle, orange juice futures, CDs, hookers&blow, etc., etc. Make sure you think about it that way. You don't remove your wealth from being invested, you move it to different investments.

If you have more in the stock market than you are comfortable with then I might suggest looking for real estate or other investments for a portion of your money or moving some to foreign stocks. You can ask a financial advisor about their thoughts as well, though most will at least make some attempt to sell their services.

My wife continually asks about taking more out of the market or real estate, but when I ask where she thinks we should move the investments to she ends up being okay with me putting 80% on TSLA OTM YOLO calls.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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chris1515 said:

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I don't see how we avoid some big inflation soon. So you'd be a fool to be in cash when that hits.

I've been shifting out of individual stocks and index funds into some actively managed mutual funds. For one, my stock picking and timing seems inferior to the SP500, and I'm hoping the active mgmt will do a little better when we start getting into a correction.

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Regardless of what you decide to invest your wealth in, you don't "take your money out." Chris hits the nail on the head here - you are either in stocks, bonds, real estate, US dollars, foreign investments, bitcoin, cattle, orange juice futures, CDs, hookers&blow, etc., etc. Make sure you think about it that way. You don't remove your wealth from being invested, you move it to different investments.

If you have more in the stock market than you are comfortable with then I might suggest looking for real estate or other investments for a portion of your money or moving some to foreign stocks. You can ask a financial advisor about their thoughts as well, though most will at least make some attempt to sell their services.

My wife continually asks about taking more out of the market or real estate, but when I ask where she thinks we should move the investments to she ends up being okay with me putting 80% on TSLA OTM YOLO calls.

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My goal is to move 70% of our invested money over to real estate. We've started to think down that path, have set up our LLC's, etc.

YouBet said:

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chris1515 said:

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I don't see how we avoid some big inflation soon. So you'd be a fool to be in cash when that hits.

I've been shifting out of individual stocks and index funds into some actively managed mutual funds. For one, my stock picking and timing seems inferior to the SP500, and I'm hoping the active mgmt will do a little better when we start getting into a correction.

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Good luck. History says it won't, but I will be genuinely curious to see your results.

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Well, for starters, it's not necessarily the objective of many active funds to beat the S&P500. Many are focused on a specific strategy, so how is the "value fund" manager or the "energy fund" manager or the "metals fund" manager going to beat the S&P when those funds really are constrained in their holdings?

So yeah most managed funds perform worse than the S&P but most managed funds have some sort of rule set or limitation that constrains the fund. I think some managed growth funds do outperform. Maybe not 10 out of 10 years, but over 10 years the computed annual growth rate often makes up for the fees.

I think the better strategy is to just own sector specific funds and take advantage of the 80/20 rule. Just don't own the historically slow growing sectors and you will by default out perform diversified funds that do own them.

Govt doing it's damndest to drive up inflation, possibly even hyper deflation of the dollar.

One strategy is to shift your spending on durable assets to today, borrowing (locking in low fixed interest rates) in today's dollars and paying back with deflated dollars in the future.

Another is refinance and Max leverage, putting the proceeds into equity of companies where pricing is fluid (consumer products).

I'm likely accelerating my farm purchase and increasing the acreage. It if turns out I'm incorrect, I'm fine with it.

SoupNazi2001 said:

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Look no one really knows when it will end but I think we are in a massive bubble. A large % of the population has been decimated by the pandemic and yet stocks and real estate are at all times highs. Much of that demand will never return to previous levels. People are justifying that everything these days is good for equities and slowdowns will just be met with massive stimulus so it doesn't matter anymore. When things that used to matter to stocks, don't anymore, you probably should be more worried about risk than return.

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I agree. I don't know if it's 2008-ish massive or 2000-ish very big, but it's a bubble

It's hard for me to rationalize market priced 35% higher than January 2019, but I've learned predicting that top is a fools errand.

YouBet said:

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chris1515 said:

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I don't see how we avoid some big inflation soon. So you'd be a fool to be in cash when that hits.

I've been shifting out of individual stocks and index funds into some actively managed mutual funds. For one, my stock picking and timing seems inferior to the SP500, and I'm hoping the active mgmt will do a little better when we start getting into a correction.

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Good luck. History says it won't, but I will be genuinely curious to see your results.

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Not necessarily true. Coming out of the financial crisis and over the past 10-12 years, a lot of index funds did outperform mutual funds of the same category after you factor in expenses.

In 2020, most active management way outperformed the indexes. Not even close in a lot of categories.

You just never know which will do better, so it's always best to just own both.

FrioAg 00 said:

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It's hard for me to rationalize market priced 35% higher than January 2019, but I've learned predicting that top is a fools errand.

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Do you think that $1 bill you hold in your hand right now is as valuable as it was in January 2019? Do you think it will be in January 2022? I don't.

GenericAggie said:

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What is your strategy to protect your money?

Has your mindset changed since the election?

Are you nervous with the trillions the government is spending on stimulus?

We're low 50's and have majority in growth equities.

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Only a fool sells for political ideology. Think about yourself for a change.

I have held stocks in both R and D regimes. Made money and lost money in all of them. Overall, made money.

So as you get older, put them money in more safer instruments but don't worry if Trump/Biden is POTUS. Nothing changes much.

My advice: Go with a cheap index fund like Vanguard.

chris1515 said:

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I don't see how we avoid some big inflation soon. So you'd be a fool to be in cash when that hits.

I've been shifting out of individual stocks and index funds into some actively managed mutual funds. For one, my stock picking and timing seems inferior to the SP500, and I'm hoping the active mgmt will do a little better when we start getting into a correction.

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Active management is a waste of time. Highly likely you will be below the benchmark. Took me 15 years to realize this. I used to buy my own stocks and that is just high stress.

Now I'm all in index ETFs since 2014 and am rolling in $$$. I can retire now, in my mid/late 40s. Minimum stress, maximum return.

Most important question:

What kind of a man are you to listen to your wife esp when it comes to investing??????