All of it, apparently.TXAG14 said:
Longer we pretend that we will be able to beat the virus the worse it is going to get. People are going to get exposed whether it is 2 weeks, 2 months or a year from now. What's going to happen is the government with slowly start to lax on the quarantine. Then we will see a spike in cases again and we are back to square 1. Why delay the inevitable? How much economic value are we willing to lose to save a human life?
How Long before the economy comes back to normal
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Last: 4 yr ago by Stat Monitor Repairman
My guess is 2028-2030 before we are fully recovered.
Ag92NGranbury said:
I'm not a fan of some of the SBA loans that will continue to prop up companies that were way over leveraged...
Debt was the disease, and they will pile up more.
Contagion is what I'm worried about because when those dominoes start to fall, they could fall quickly... This shut down has exposed how leveraged American businesses had become.
This is an event you couldn't plan for. They're being forced to shut down by the government. I'll disagree with this statement. We need as many businesses as possible to survive to reduce UE as much as we can when things open back up.
sorry captain...agdaddy04 said:Ag92NGranbury said:
I'm not a fan of some of the SBA loans that will continue to prop up companies that were way over leveraged...
Debt was the disease, and they will pile up more.
Contagion is what I'm worried about because when those dominoes start to fall, they could fall quickly... This shut down has exposed how leveraged American businesses had become.
This is an event you couldn't plan for. They're being forced to shut down by the government. I'll disagree with this statement. We need as many businesses as possible to survive to reduce UE as much as we can when things open back up.
look up zombie companies...
'merica has plenty of them
Canyon99 said:
My guess is 2028-2030 before we are fully recovered.
The sad thing is that you're probably not joking. This sort of ignorance is what drives panic
As far as employment, he is going to be far closer to right than those predicting a few month recovery.
Debt bubble has popped for many.
Debt bubble has popped for many.
not if there is a common and accessible therapeutic treatment program.SoupNazi2001 said:All A&M said:I suppose you want to believe it will come back as soon as the government relaxes social distancing. I want to believe that too but it doesn't match up with reality. Believing what you want is asinine, especially when money is involved.ehrmantraut said:All A&M said:
I think it will take longer than the great recession. Most are still in the denial stage thinking that as soon as the government relaxes social distancing recommendations that the economy will rapidly return to what it was in February. This light switch metaphor turning back on the economy is delusional. In addition, the market was incredibly overvalued in February (the only higher valuation was the dotcom bubble) but most are thinking that is a fair price to rapidly return to. In summary...typical bear market... it takes time to bottom out and then slowly recover.
This is asinine
It won't just bounce back. We have people that are spraying Lysol on groceries, stripping in the garage and showering after a simple trip to the store. The Covid board is full of them. These people won't resume normal life easily and will panic And stay at home if cases increase slightly again. We have created a society of fear. This will take a long time to recover.
If I know that catching the virus means a call to a dr and a RX for HAZ and back to normal in 5-7 days with significantly reduced risk then I will 100% absolutely resume normal life.
If that program is being administered only to those with the greatest risk and younger people are left out to fight alone then I will continue to limit my interaction with the outside world.
I'm playing devils advocate.
I could say the recovery will take 1 day. He said 8-10 years. Both seem a bit extreme.
Our GDP took ~2-3 years to recover in 2009-2011.
The thing is: if we have a mass produced vaccine by beginning of 2021, most Americans will feel comfortable resuming their lives. A lot will be known in 2-3 months as to whether or not We have more control over cases and spread..
https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus
I could say the recovery will take 1 day. He said 8-10 years. Both seem a bit extreme.
Our GDP took ~2-3 years to recover in 2009-2011.
The thing is: if we have a mass produced vaccine by beginning of 2021, most Americans will feel comfortable resuming their lives. A lot will be known in 2-3 months as to whether or not We have more control over cases and spread..
https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus
SoupNazi2001 said:All A&M said:I suppose you want to believe it will come back as soon as the government relaxes social distancing. I want to believe that too but it doesn't match up with reality. Believing what you want is asinine, especially when money is involved.ehrmantraut said:All A&M said:
I think it will take longer than the great recession. Most are still in the denial stage thinking that as soon as the government relaxes social distancing recommendations that the economy will rapidly return to what it was in February. This light switch metaphor turning back on the economy is delusional. In addition, the market was incredibly overvalued in February (the only higher valuation was the dotcom bubble) but most are thinking that is a fair price to rapidly return to. In summary...typical bear market... it takes time to bottom out and then slowly recover.
This is asinine
It won't just bounce back. We have people that are spraying Lysol on groceries, stripping in the garage and showering after a simple trip to the store. The Covid board is full of them. These people won't resume normal life easily and will panic And stay at home if cases increase slightly again. We have created a society of fear. This will take a long time to recover.
Setting aside the idea that science can start working seriously on problems like viruses, MRSA, TB, new antibiotics...
The "normal" you apparently want is 80% of Americans still living hand-to-mouth, not because of low income, but because of out of control consumerism. If that was the sign of a strong economy, I'm fine if it never comes back. If people start saving, actually purchase health care for their families instead of electronic gadgets and $7 coffees, and a lot of the businesses that relied on discretionary consumerism go away, that's okay. A little lingering fear would be a good thing for a lot of people. Yes, I understand the multiplier effect, but it works better if you spend money you have instead of money you don't.
We need consumerism. The exchange of goods and services is what grows the economy. The more exchanges the more growth.
The real fear I'm seeing is from less educated, non-news followers, who are often quite intelligent but have been practicing cognitive dissonance or had their heads in the sand for the past 6 weeks. It was obvious that cancelling schools for a week, working from home for 2 weeks...these were all just "useful lies." Anybody even halfway paying attention knew this was just the start, and that all the "out by Easter" nonsense was just being said to keep people from panicking. Now that the obvious truth is being rolled out one layer at a time, the deniers are having a much harder time with it. They're depressed about not getting to wear the Easter dress, or on a larger level, the paper losses in the 401(k). They are maybe just now beginning to look beyond themselves to think about Nairobi, Bombay, Lagos...
These questions of when things return to normal... I have no idea. I am thankful that there is food on the table right now, and I do not take it for granted.
These questions of when things return to normal... I have no idea. I am thankful that there is food on the table right now, and I do not take it for granted.
Yep. Its clear that its all been trickle truth.
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