This thread is for posting trading strategies and setups for discussion and critique.

This should be educational for anyone who contributes.

Don't feel obligated to share but if you do contribute don't troll.

Let's have a productive and profitable 2020!

I'll start tomorrow when I get back to my computer.

We've done well with the basic investment flowchart you can find on the internet. I think that's the best strategy for the vast majority of people.

Unless you are talking strictly day trading and stock strategies.

Believe he is talking trading in general. Not long term retirement investing.

For a beginner like me, I think this would be great. Theres a ton of content out there and it can get overwhelming. This would be much more manageable format.

Watching

I am talking about trading stocks, options, etc. more than investment strategies.

Long term plays and dividend investing do fall into this discussion if you have any interest/experience in those lanes.

in

In

I'm in.

In

Read/Watch stuff by Ernest Chan. He has been through the journey and shares invaluable lessons.

I posted this on the other thread, but I've been a subscriber to Nathan Michaud's Investors Underground (can also follow him on Twitter) for two months now and have been really pleased. Nate focuses on day trading so if you're not looking to get into that I wouldn't recommend it. But there has been a ton of things I've learned in the two months I've been reading and trading with the folks in that community and have made a decent return while doing so.

There's some free IU content on YouTube that I can post later if interested.

IN

I'll preface this by saying I am not a day trader.

With that said, I have followed a twitter guy for at least 5+ years and he's about the most transparent, no nonsense person I've found. He posts the daily P/L and is about the most consistent trader based on what I have seen.

If I was to try my hand at day trading, no question I would follow him first
Madazmoney.com
Twitter @madaznfootballr

IBIO may be shaping up to your liking. Curious if its the same type you are looking for.

I follow newsletter and one always says the most money made is when stocks go from very bad to bad.

Look at Dan Wiener. He has a publication called the Independent Vanguard Adviser. You would do well if you follow one of his recommended portfolios. This style of investing is low cost but requires TIM (time in the market). All these portfolios can be built off of Vanguard funds and they will alert you to any changes they recommend.

https://adviseronline.investorplace.com/

Tumble Weed said:

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Bad news on good companies I will just add to the portfolio for the long term. Black and Blue chips.

INTC is one example. AMD has been kicking their butt with the new Ryzen and Threadripper. I bought some INTC at 57.145 on 12/18 and I am holding it. Up over 5%.

I am trading based on fundamentals, and P/E and Net Margin are the two that I care about the most. My formula is Net Margin / (PE Ratio). Value is tough to find in the current environment, but I have run across a couple. I really like the companies with a Net Margin > 20% and a P/E < 10.

*not a professional in the finance industry, just a computer programmer*

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Boots on the ground intel is usually better than what the analysts get.

Not remotely a day trader but I've played this strategy over the previous 20-25 years specifically with XOM and have made out well doing it. XOM is actually sitting at a good price right now at around $70 compared to a 52 week high of $83. Missed the low end because I haven't been paying attention. Probably going to buy some though.

YouBet said:

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Not remotely a day trader but I've played this strategy over the previous 20-25 years specifically with XOM and have made out well doing it. XOM is actually sitting at a good price right now at around $70 compared to a 52 week high of $83. Missed the low end because I haven't been paying attention. Probably going to buy some though.

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RDS is another one you can do this with...just sell covered calls when it starts to get around 65-70 and buy in the 50s...can pocket a good dividend as well

gougler08 said:

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YouBet said:

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Not remotely a day trader but I've played this strategy over the previous 20-25 years specifically with XOM and have made out well doing it. XOM is actually sitting at a good price right now at around $70 compared to a 52 week high of $83. Missed the low end because I haven't been paying attention. Probably going to buy some though.

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RDS is another one you can do this with...just sell covered calls when it starts to get around 65-70 and buy in the 50s...can pocket a good dividend as well

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I'm not even doing that though. I'm simply buying it when it gets well off its "normal" price and then holding it.

I'm a buy and hold guy and this is as close as I get to trading. I also have my play stock I do this with and thats it. Everything else is in funds.

panduh bear said:

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So the first trade and strategy I am posting is pretty straight forward.

The idea is easy:

Scan for stocks hitting 52 week or all time lows and put them on the watchlist. I play small since I am learning and don't mind losing the amount in these accounts.

I want to hat tip OA1 here though as he mentioned this stock when it hit near .10. Volume came in to buy up shares when it was low and those are the keys to this strategy.

1) Find a low
2) Watch for Volume
3) See higher lows and highs off of the low
4) Define Entry/Exit



So I saw it pushing .16 and saw the resistance and the upward trend. Target was .05 as the previous S/R for the stock before it dropped to the .10's was at least in the .40+ range, if not in the $1.00's.

Entered at .1618, exit at .219. Took a nice 35% profit. Missed out on a lot more but, still happy to get a win with the strategy.

As I type this post you can see the same pattern on INPX.

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What tools do you use to find those lows among tens of thousands of stocks.

I find finviz.com to be my best resource for finding things near their lows. I also have some scanners built on Thinkorswim that help me to see when volume is increasing on a given stock.

That said for finding these I love finviz, you can make a profile for free and save your scans. A great resource to learn and use especially when the markets are closed.

There are lots of YouTube videos on how to set up different scans you can use to get your bearings on the site. For these specifically, they have a threshold from highs or lows that you can work with for your scan.

Buying $CONN at 11.53. Let's see how oversold it really is.

I have been dabbling lately in some different modeling for my portfolio (just using the free websites like Portfolio Visualizer) by using different adaptive allocation models to improve CAGR and/or decrease volatility. These methods include different momentum trades like risk parity, inverse volatility, and minimum variance.

I was just seeing if anyone else trades like this to increase returns and/or decrease volatility in their own portfolios and, if so, what tools they use or what their portfolio looks like?

A very cookie cutter example (link to Portfolio Visualizer) of what I am talking about for anyone interested running from 1997-present. (Note: Just an bland example)

This example contains just 4 funds which are rotated based on, in this example, risk-parity. (actually it doesn't matter if you use risk parity or minimum variance in this example because it is so simplified) The four funds are all Vanguard: VTSMX (total stock market index), VGTSX (total international stock index), VGSIX (real estate index), and VBMFX (total bond index). Only the top two funds are held each month in varying percentages based on risk-parity.



As you can see, the timing model increases returns while decreasing volatility. (CAGR increases from 7.51% to 9.95% and annualized volatility decreases from 11.48% to 10.26% which improves both Sharpe and Sortino ratios for the timing model vs. the equal-weight portfolio.)

I just have been looking at approaches (like this example) which require trading/rebalancing at the beginning of each month. I figure that is is easy to do and only takes a few minutes each month from my brokerage account login.

Anyone else have experience with this or approaches they have tried using risk-parity, minimum variance, etc.? Maybe with leveraged ETFs?


Edit: corrected link

panduh bear said:

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I find finviz.com to be my best resource for finding things near their lows. I also have some scanners built on Thinkorswim that help me to see when volume is increasing on a given stock.

That said for finding these I love finviz, you can make a profile for free and save your scans. A great resource to learn and use especially when the markets are closed.

There are lots of YouTube videos on how to set up different scans you can use to get your bearings on the site. For these specifically, they have a threshold from highs or lows that you can work with for your scan. Another resource I found while googling about:

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Another resource I found while googling about:
https://www.marketbeat.com/market-data/52-week-lows/

Also, some further reading on 52-week high/lows: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/52weekhighlow.asp

Do you have some sort of system to picking the stocks that are near their 52-week (or all-time) low? Obviously it would be unwise to just randomly pick stocks near their low. Do you use any other metrics to help you decide?



Edit: corrected link

Bocephus said:

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Buying $CONN at 11.53. Let's see how oversold it really is.

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Sold that POS