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Buy-and-hold-forever investing

4,425 Views | 19 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by IslandAg76
SACR
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AG
Quote:

"[M]y tendency has been to buy stocks, all a-tremble as I do so. Then when they show a profit I sell them, exultantly. (But never within six months, of course. I'm no anarchist.) It seems to me at these moments that I have achieved life's loveliest guerdon making some money without doing any work. Then a long time later it turns out that I should have just bought them, and thereafter I should have just sat on them like a fat, stupid peasant. A peasant, however, who is rich beyond his limited dreams of avarice."
--Fred Schwed, Where Are The Customers' Yachts?

I was reminded of Schwed's quote when I read a blog post about a woman who bought 20 (or 40) shares of $BA Boeing stock back in 1965 for $250. She then did nothing with those shares, certainly not selling them, and just let the dividends reinvest every quarter. 53 years later, she has 400 shares*, and her $250 investment is worth $134,800. The dividends alone on those 400 shares pay $2700 a year, or more than ten times her initial investment of $250.

You also have Ronald Read, the Vermont janitor who bought stock in over 90 companies, and died with a portfolio worth $8 million. Read carefully researched the companies he bought, and if he didn't like how they were performing after his purchase, he'd stop buying that stock, but never sell it. Some companies (Lehman Brothers) went bankrupt, but some (like $PCG Pacific Gas & Electric) continued to split and grow in value even though he never invested past his original purchase, and used dividends to buy other stocks. Read bought for the long haul, and literally never sold his holdings.

I think most of the traditional buy-and-hold investing approach advises to buy and hold for a 20-30 year long-term period, for the logical reason that most people are investing to provide a financially secure retirement, and most people work between 20-40 years before they retire. The buy-and-hold forever approach isn't looking at holding for a 30 year period to sell to fund for retirement, but to buy and hold for the rest of your life, using the price growth of the stock and dividends to help supplement your retirement income. Holding it forever makes your
stock purchases a legacy of wealth you can pass on to future generations, though, so it not only provides you with an income source through retirement, but also secures the financial future of your family after you're gone (assuming they continue to hold onto the stocks and don't get greedy and sell them and blow the money, always a big risk).

I've been reading recently about the struggle of the middle to lower class to get ahead and acquire wealth in today's economic climate. If you take the buy-and-hold-forever approach, you not only begin the process of acquiring wealth for yourself, but give yourself the opportunity to transfer that wealth upon your death, giving your kids and grandkids a big financial leg up.

If you believe that investing is the process of buying stock in companies that you love and would be proud to own, a timeline of forever on your stock purchases is actually the logical approach. If it is a company you love to own, there is no reason to ever sell it.



* Boeing stock has split 8 times since 1965, so a purchase of 20 shares would have become 1215 shares worth $424,873.35 as of today, and yielding $8327.52 in dividend payments.
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"Now you're suggesting uncleanliness during a viral outbreak? What other great ideas you got Typhoid Mary[?]"

jamey, 3/13/20

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"They log into each other's accounts and post. They probably are two different people but that doesn't matter much when you log into other peoples accounts."
oldarmy1
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This is why it is a worthy goal to eventually control your retirement account. The vast majority of people's 401k, IRA's and SEP accounts are run by people who invest your money in funds. And guess What? The vast majority of those funds rotate holdings as frequently as quarterly, with most doing so annually.

So distinguish between buy and hold forever and dollar cost averaging into your retirement accounts. They are "mutually fund" exclusive.

My personal approach to trading is to work towards a "net free" holding on stocks I want to hold forever. It might come from a buy opportunity that doubles and I sell half, but is usually a combination of options, range trading or dip buying.

Regardless of method, by taking this approach I have accumulated 228 different company stocks that are 100% capital free. What is the result? I owned Enron net free and lost it all. But I also own AMZN, CAT, JPM, FMC, DE, NFLX, INTC, AMX, TWTR on and on the list goes as "net free" holdings. My capital is used to expand my forever holdings number of companies. I like the odds.

I'm happy the guy who bought Boeing turned out to make a healthy return with continuing dividends. For every Boeing there are a dozen lemons. They don't write articles about those people do they?
Cancelled
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I used to be a big fan of Jim Cramer - like every night But, after reading the Intelligent Investor and some of my own research, I find his strategy bordering on speculation.

I like how Buffett speaks about investing. I know Buffett is a disciple of Graham, but the idea of not freaking out about daily moves and believing in a sound company is pretty wise. I invest mainly in about 5 mutual funds, the majority in an S&P 500 index fund.

More recently, I've been putting up extra money for more active investment using Graham's theories.
SACR
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Quote:

My personal approach to trading is to work towards a "net free" holding on stocks I want to hold forever. It might come from a buy opportunity that doubles and I sell half, but is usually a combination of options, range trading or dip buying.
How did you start your approach? Buy positions in several companies, wait until they doubled, then sell half your position to redeploy your capital in other investments, wash, rinse, repeat?

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"Now you're suggesting uncleanliness during a viral outbreak? What other great ideas you got Typhoid Mary[?]"

jamey, 3/13/20

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"They log into each other's accounts and post. They probably are two different people but that doesn't matter much when you log into other peoples accounts."
oldarmy1
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SACR said:

Quote:

My personal approach to trading is to work towards a "net free" holding on stocks I want to hold forever. It might come from a buy opportunity that doubles and I sell half, but is usually a combination of options, range trading or dip buying.y
How did you start your approach? Buy positions in several companies, wait until they doubled, then sell half your position to redeploy your capital in other investments, wash, rinse, repeat?




Exactly. You could take the current SWN, CHK, and SN for energy, as A sector example. 3 energy stocks that can easily double over the next 12 months.

I already owned 2 of the 3 net free but took decent size positions in those and a hefty position in the one I didn't, SWN.

Based on cyclical moves I see them bottoming out regardless of oil price fluctuations at these levels.

Now when SWN surprised with guidance and popped 30% I sold the $3 calls out to April for some nice juice. That becomes part of my sale strategy for working into a net free holding. Reason I prefer that versus a straight sale is because I delay or avoid capital gains on the share sale.
leoj
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Graham's Mr market analogy is pretty helpful as a dose of reality when you feel like freaking out and selling.
Waltonloads08
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As long as the next 50 years are just like the last 50 years, this should work.

Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case. As Boomers worldwide retire, they will pull their money out of stocks, and they will cease being major consumers of anything but government healthcare, funded by tax hikes (reducing income for X and Millennials IE demand) or more debt (undermining consumer confidence and raising inflation risk).

I think we will continue to see efficiency gains via tech for some time, but this will only be an offset to the lack of demand, and we will see very low to no growth over the next few decades.

Hope I'm wrong of course, I'm only 32, but I think everyone needs to prepare by saving more than their parents needed to save. Easier said than done, if you want to start a family and have kids, which is becoming very hard for middle class families to do.

Cyp0111
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I agree with this to a large extent. I also think our age group (im 33) should have a more varied investment profile and alternative sources of income.

Many of the boomers benefited from a dramatic stock market appreciation coupled with generous corporate pension programs.

I've constructed a Graham/Buffet type of portfolio and have been happy with the results. I range from tobacco to fast food to telecom to base commodity and tech. I've spread this account across 15 companies with the intent to let continued dividend reinvestment take over.
claym711
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Overall market will continue to shift towards computer driven trading volume. Mean reversion regime has halted % gains and losses. Buy and hold won't be the same as it once was.
SACR
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WaltonLoads08 said:

As long as the next 50 years are just like the last 50 years, this should work.

Unfortunately, I don't think that will be the case. As Boomers worldwide retire, they will pull their money out of stocks, and they will cease being major consumers of anything but government healthcare, funded by tax hikes (reducing income for X and Millennials IE demand) or more debt (undermining consumer confidence and raising inflation risk).

I think we will continue to see efficiency gains via tech for some time, but this will only be an offset to the lack of demand, and we will see very low to no growth over the next few decades.

Hope I'm wrong of course, I'm only 32, but I think everyone needs to prepare by saving more than their parents needed to save. Easier said than done, if you want to start a family and have kids, which is becoming very hard for middle class families to do.


I've been hearing doom-and-gloom about the Boomers retiring for at least the last two decades. You do realize that the Millennials are bigger than the Boomers, right? And there is a lot of evidence they're saving and investing at higher rates than previous generations. I think the fear of the mass exodus of the Boomers leaving the market is more hype than reality. My experience with Boomers retiring actually backs this up, as many of them want some continued exposure to the market, even if it is only a small bit, to beat inflation.
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"Now you're suggesting uncleanliness during a viral outbreak? What other great ideas you got Typhoid Mary[?]"

jamey, 3/13/20

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"They log into each other's accounts and post. They probably are two different people but that doesn't matter much when you log into other peoples accounts."
gindaloon
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Quote:

And there is a lot of evidence they're saving and investing at higher rates than previous generations.
This article paints a different picture
IslandAg76
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I am a buy and hold for a long time guy.

Not only does the dividend reinvesting and splits yield more shares over time BUT..they also do other things like spin offs and take overs. You sometimes wind up with a significant number of shares in another company.

I occasionally sell options on some of the stocks and they may get called away.

Of course you have to pay attention--I also owned WorldCom--who thought the 2nd largest communications company in the world would go to zero?
oldarmy1
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Hey! I owned Worldcom too. And I was only a little over halfway to a net free position when the selloff hit. Option premiums went off the chart to the Put side and Calls were being given away. I knew something was up and bailed. Still lost money. Hence my approach to forever holding.
SACR
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gindaloon said:

Quote:

And there is a lot of evidence they're saving and investing at higher rates than previous generations.
This article paints a different picture

I based my statement on a now-4 year old article about Wealthfront, which serves me right for using such a poor source.

With the increase in technology making access to saving and investing easier, I still think the Millennials will replace any Boomers as they move out of the market.
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"Now you're suggesting uncleanliness during a viral outbreak? What other great ideas you got Typhoid Mary[?]"

jamey, 3/13/20

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"They log into each other's accounts and post. They probably are two different people but that doesn't matter much when you log into other peoples accounts."
Premium
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Just read a little here, but it's funny to see all of the investing experts come out of the woodwork when the stock market is up to historic highs. Where were you when the market burned? Or perhaps you didn't invest back then and now you're on top of the world now. Everyone is an expert these days.

FWIW I only have investments in my directly controlled assets. Business, long term rentals, vacation rentals.
PFG
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Quote:

I only have investments in my directly controlled assets. Business, long term rentals, vacation rentals.


I'd love to hear more about how you control the vacationing market for the area you own rentals. I'm sure lots of folks with condos in Port A felt the same until Harvey...

Just saying. There's risk everywhere.
schmellba99: Hard to believe people are looking at what is happening and thinking this is something other than a flu like bug
Premium
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PFG said:

Quote:

I only have investments in my directly controlled assets. Business, long term rentals, vacation rentals.


I'd love to hear more about how you control the vacationing market for the area you own rentals. I'm sure lots of folks with condos in Port A felt the same until Harvey...

Just saying. There's risk everywhere.


I have a $100,000 renovation in Port A on a House we closed on 30 days before Harvey. And another in Galveston. We are doing great, really.

How does Coca Cola create Coke drinkers. How does Starbucks get people to buy coffee?

Here, many 5 star reviews will attract vacationers. It's about a good product, good service, good price.

https://www.vrbo.com/857142
SACR
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AG
Premium said:

Just read a little here, but it's funny to see all of the investing experts come out of the woodwork when the stock market is up to historic highs.

I went back and re-read both original posts, and neither I nor oldarmy1 claimed to be 'experts' of any sort.

I posted an investing idea, he posted the method he's used for years to great success. Maybe if you read more than 'a little', and actually read the whole post, you'd understand what we're saying.

BTW, Fred Schwed published his book in 1940, and it was about his experience in the markets in the 1920s and '30s. Human nature doesn't change.

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"Now you're suggesting uncleanliness during a viral outbreak? What other great ideas you got Typhoid Mary[?]"

jamey, 3/13/20

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"They log into each other's accounts and post. They probably are two different people but that doesn't matter much when you log into other peoples accounts."
Premium
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AG
SACR said:

Premium said:

Just read a little here, but it's funny to see all of the investing experts come out of the woodwork when the stock market is up to historic highs.

I went back and re-read both original posts, and neither I nor oldarmy1 claimed to be 'experts' of any sort.

I posted an investing idea, he posted the method he's used for years to great success. Maybe if you read more than 'a little', and actually read the whole post, you'd understand what we're saying.

BTW, Fred Schwed published his book in 1940, and it was about his experience in the markets in the 1920s and '30s. Human nature doesn't change.




I didn't realize you were the only two posters here. My bad.
SACR
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Premium said:

SACR said:

Premium said:

Just read a little here, but it's funny to see all of the investing experts come out of the woodwork when the stock market is up to historic highs.

I went back and re-read both original posts, and neither I nor oldarmy1 claimed to be 'experts' of any sort.

I posted an investing idea, he posted the method he's used for years to great success. Maybe if you read more than 'a little', and actually read the whole post, you'd understand what we're saying.

BTW, Fred Schwed published his book in 1940, and it was about his experience in the markets in the 1920s and '30s. Human nature doesn't change.




I didn't realize you were the only two posters here. My bad.

Please, enlighten me then. Who was your post directed at?
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"Now you're suggesting uncleanliness during a viral outbreak? What other great ideas you got Typhoid Mary[?]"

jamey, 3/13/20

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"They log into each other's accounts and post. They probably are two different people but that doesn't matter much when you log into other peoples accounts."
IslandAg76
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I'm one of the posters and I've had the same lethargic "strategy" since the 1980's,.
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