AustinTownHallAg said:

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Dallas and Atlanta are in a good position because of their size and infrastructure. I could see Amazon dropping right on top of the Reunion Arena with a multi building facility. Immediately revitalizing a downtown, but a place where people could commute from a huge metro area. It makes sense from an economic perspective.

However, I don't know if Bezos cares about economics. Denver is a short flight away and has a culture that would blend with HQ1. It would be an easy one day flight or a long weekend, with a stay in the mountains. Plus you can smoke weed.

Population is also small out here. Bringing in 25-50k people means Amazon can dictate any policy they want. No taxes breaks, but that's not necessary when the infrastructure and policy is angled to your benefit. Long story short, I think Denver is the pick.

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I agree with all of this. Yes I'm biased as I live here, but I think Denver is top 3 easily. I don't know amazon's company culture, but I'd imagine it's mostly young tech hip people, like apple or google. CO is not a hard red or blue state, and Denver is progressive, already has a huge tech center, and there is a lot of land on north/north east/east sides that is undeveloped, probably cheap, and close to downtown and the airport. It's a destination state and has a lot to offer for the 50k potential employees, which I'm sure Bezos wants to make happy.

COL has risen dramatically in the last 4-5 years, but this is a long process; by the time the bulk of these 50k people start working at HQ2, we could be in a housing bust.. who knows. It's not like it all starts this year in 2018. The earliest new employees would probably be 2020 or later.

gig em 02 said:

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Rebel_Lonestar said:

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gig em 02 said:

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Ol Jock 99 said:

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Pretty sure they want a real downtown location.

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I don't know where they will squeeze in a building in downtown Dallas

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I think this would be ideal:


Dallas Smart District

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That's embarrassing. I bet the Star and surrounding area was cheaper to build than that would be.

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What's embarrassing about it?

I don't understand the importance placed on airport. Much smaller companies than Amazon essentially run their own airline between multiple headquarters. I don't think it would be anything for Amazon to have 3 round trip flights every day between 2 U.S. headquarters.

If the airport is for distribution, that doesn't matter much either. As long as sufficient runways and land exist to handle the planes and build the facilities for distribution, they should be fine. Many airports check this box. Ft. Worth Alliance comes to mind. Also, Amazon could easily build their own airport if they're planning to scale up to something like FedEx or UPS.

I would imagine the biggest factors would be availability of low cost labor, ability to attract high cost labor to the area, business-friendly regulatory environment, and infrastructure to support the additional people they bring to the area.

If they're selecting a site for 50,000 employees, they don't want to move 50,000 employees to the area. They will want to hire most of those locally.

I would bet they've had this narrowed down to a few cities since they first announced plans for a second HQ. They're just doing this show to squeeze the best deal out of the place or places they want to have the second HQ.

Well they probably have a ton of international clients who they don't want to have to make connecting flights after an international flight

DallasAggie0 said:

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Well they probably have a ton of international clients who they don't want to have to make connecting flights after an international flight

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This guy gets it. Plus all the domestic travel for internal workings. People that don't travel often think there is nothing wrong with connections until they have to start dealing with connections.

I worked in commercial real estate in Dallas for 5+ years and just recently made a career change. Although I left as Amazon was beginning their search, Hopefully I can provide some insight on their Dallas options.

If Amazon were to go to DFW, my bet would be on the W Plano/Frisco area. This just makes the most sense when considering their location and "cool" factor requirements - direct access to DFW Airport via 121, +/- 20 Miles to Uptown/Downtown via the DNT and easy access to Legacy West, The Star, Frisco Station and The Shops at Legacy. Not to mention, the would be almost equal distance to their distribution locations - DFW Airport, Love Field, South Dallas & Alliance (Alliance being slightly farther).

Scott Beck's "Dallas Midtown" development (Valley View Mall site) is trying to make a case to lure Amazon to their new development. However, I would bet this is a distant second. Scott has been trying to get his development off the ground for several years, and some have become skeptical that he has the ability to make it happen. PegasusAblon recently purchased a development site between the Galleria and Dallas Midtown. I could see that location being a real possibility, but tied with Beck's site as a distant second.

I am sure Mike Rawlings is making a push for Downtown Dallas. The area has started make a modest comeback in recent years, but it still has a ways to go before it has the vibe of other major metropolitan cities. There are still several development sites in Downtown, but the developer would have to get creative to accommodate Amazon's employees parking (biggest drawback of all downtown buildings). If Downtown were Amazon's choice, I would put my money on somewhere in the West End.

Quick wrap up - I have kept in contact with most of my contacts in the industry, and the consensus on where Amazon lands is still very much in the air. I don't think any of the decision makers at Amazon know at this point. As far as the cities, I would put my money on Atlanta, Dallas, Denver or Chicago (no particular order).

Long post, but hopefully it was helpful.

Something I forgot, the dove valley/centennial area of Denver (southeast). Just adjacent to the already well established tech center. There is tons of open available land, and right in the middle of it is Centennial airport, one of the busiest general aviation airports in the US. (Think private jets). Just 15 miles or so to downtown, and still only 25 miles to DIA.
This area is already slated to house the new Redbarre development, a $1b investment for a movie production and technology campus, with 2msf of mixed use office/retail. I could amazon fitting right in along with that.


https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2017/08/11/redbarres-1-billion-movie-industry-development.html

I think Philly checks off everything Amazon wants. I know everyone thinks Chicago is the front runner, but Philly is a medium sized city with a metro thats right behind Dallas. & compared to Boston & NYC is still cheaper.

As far as COL, only Nashville & Raleigh can win that department. The only thing Austin has going for as the differentiating factor, is the yuppie culture. & its not like cities as big as the ones theyre looking at are lacking in that department.

I found Raleigh, Raleigh proper that is, to be more expensive than Dallas.

It would appear that Nashville is the front runner...at least according to Vegas.

Boston is closest to all of the IVY leagues...so for the sake of filling $100k jobs, they will have the largest pool.

Midtown is Scott Beck. Goff is Crescent/M&O, West End, etc.

I work in the industry and hear stuff, usually from good sources within the development community. The general consensus is Amazon already knows where they're going, this is merely a dog and pony show for additional incentives. This will not be any sort of 2nd generation space/build (i.e. not back-filling XTO in Fort Worth). They can do complete build-to-suit, and have literally whatever they want in this campus.

My personal feeling is it is not Dallas, likely Austin, Nashville, Atlanta, Denver, or (wildcard) Raleigh. No real reason except for gut feeling. When the betting odds came out today, it didn't do anything for me to move that.

If it is Dallas, I still say KDC's Smart District. Regardless, KDC has about 6-7 of their hats in the ring across the nation, and they're the king developer of build-to-suits right now. My friends who work there are very tight-lipped, and won't mention anything about it in any city, much less here in Dallas.

62strat said:

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Something I forgot, the dove valley/centennial area of Denver (southeast). Just adjacent to the already well established tech center. There is tons of open available land, and right in the middle of it is Centennial airport, one of the busiest general aviation airports in the US. (Think private jets). Just 15 miles or so to downtown, and still only 25 miles to DIA.
This area is already slated to house the new Redbarre development, a $1b investment for a movie production and technology campus, with 2msf of mixed use office/retail. I could amazon fitting right in along with that.


https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2017/08/11/redbarres-1-billion-movie-industry-development.html

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Think just a bit further south. She won't confirm it, but my wife was involved in the Denver proposal to Amazon. I think (and these are my guesses from our conversations) the prime spots are the land on the SE corner of I-25 and Lincoln across from Schwab/Sky Ridge and the current Elitch Gardens location downtown. Broomfield is a possible 3rd location, I think.

If Dallas had the foresight to do it, they would offer all of Fair Park to Amazon as their campus. It would completely transform South Dallas and put a massive piece of property to year round use.

752bro4 said:

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Midtown is Scott Beck. Goff is Crescent/M&O, West End, etc.

I work in the industry and hear stuff, usually from good sources within the development community. The general consensus is Amazon already knows where they're going, this is merely a dog and pony show for additional incentives. This will not be any sort of 2nd generation space/build (i.e. not back-filling XTO in Fort Worth). They can do complete build-to-suit, and have literally whatever they want in this campus.

My personal feeling is it is not Dallas, likely Austin, Nashville, Atlanta, Denver, or (wildcard) Raleigh. No real reason except for gut feeling. When the betting odds came out today, it didn't do anything for me to move that.

If it is Dallas, I still say KDC's Smart District. Regardless, KDC has about 6-7 of their hats in the ring across the nation, and they're the king developer of build-to-suits right now. My friends who work there are very tight-lipped, and won't mention anything about it in any city, much less here in Dallas.

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Agree. Beck's midtown site is a great site but struggled to gain traction for whatever reason and Crescent/Goff don't quite have the horsepower to pull off an Amazon BTS in my opinion. The only player in Dallas that could do something like this would be a KDC and I think either their south downtown site or the city's North Oak Cliff/35E site would be great. I can't see this going in Legacy or Frisco but that's just my gut feel.

I work in corporate RE in Dallas as well and would love it if Amazon picked down Dallas for the trickle down effect, similar to what Toyota is having.

I keep reading different people posting cities such as Dallas, Chicago and Denver as the favorite. Those are long shots. The paddy power odds are:

Boston 3/1
Austin 7/2
Atlanta 7/2
Montgomery county 8/1
Pittsburgh 8/1
DC 10/1
Philly 14/1

Down the list are
Chicago 16/1
Denver 16/1
Dallas 20/1

Other things to consider:
This isn't about low wage employees.
This isn't about distribution.
High wage employees and their vendors, where they want to live, and travel in/out of are major factors.

You're right - it's Beck not Goff. Thank you for catching that. There goes my credibility after I accuse Crescent of not having the ability to complete a development...

I've also heard they are only considering BTS options. Otherwise, somthing like JC Penny's old HQ would have made some sense.

Hotlanta.

Thriller said:

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62strat said:

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Something I forgot, the dove valley/centennial area of Denver (southeast). Just adjacent to the already well established tech center. There is tons of open available land, and right in the middle of it is Centennial airport, one of the busiest general aviation airports in the US. (Think private jets). Just 15 miles or so to downtown, and still only 25 miles to DIA.
This area is already slated to house the new Redbarre development, a $1b investment for a movie production and technology campus, with 2msf of mixed use office/retail. I could amazon fitting right in along with that.


https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2017/08/11/redbarres-1-billion-movie-industry-development.html

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Think just a bit further south. She won't confirm it, but my wife was involved in the Denver proposal to Amazon. I think (and these are my guesses from our conversations) the prime spots are the land on the SE corner of I-25 and Lincoln across from Schwab/Sky Ridge and the current Elitch Gardens location downtown. Broomfield is a possible 3rd location, I think.

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Elitch gardens and surrounding Parking areas have been speculated as the location. The SE corner of 25 and Lincoln is the future ridgegate/lone tree city center development location. https://www.dropbox.com/s/iy9to57mr1lhw0x/RidgeGate%20PDD%204th%20Amend%20check%20set.pdf

So it won't be there, not enough commercial zoning.

If it is northern Virginia I'm going to be pissed that I sold my house there a year and a half ago. I was walking distance to a prime location of Potomac Yards/Crystal City.

Scientific said:

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I think Philly checks off everything Amazon wants. I know everyone thinks Chicago is the front runner, but Philly is a medium sized city with a metro thats right behind Dallas. & compared to Boston & NYC is still cheaper.

As far as COL, only Nashville & Raleigh can win that department. The only thing Austin has going for as the differentiating factor, is the yuppie culture. & its not like cities as big as the ones theyre looking at are lacking in that department.

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I'd lean to Philly or Pitt. Especially if Amazon still has Rite-Aid in their sights for a pharmacy acquisition. Rite-Aid HQ in Camp Hill, PA.

Not that it's worth arguing about, but that development of City Center is not yet approved.

I don't know for 100% certain, but I'd bet a steak dinner that site was included in the proposal to Amazon.

Thriller said:

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Not that it's worth arguing about, but that development of City Center is not yet approved.

I don't know for 100% certain, but I'd bet a steak dinner that site was included in the proposal to Amazon.

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I didn't know that. I assumed with the rail extension currently under construction it was a done deal. Otherwise you have a rail stop out in field? It will be done in about 15 months I think, so something needs to be out there, and would need to start in 2018.

I live about 4 miles east of there.

DONmination said:

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I worked in commercial real estate in Dallas for 5+ years and just recently made a career change. Although I left as Amazon was beginning their search, Hopefully I can provide some insight on their Dallas options.

If Amazon were to go to DFW, my bet would be on the W Plano/Frisco area. This just makes the most sense when considering their location and "cool" factor requirements - direct access to DFW Airport via 121, +/- 20 Miles to Uptown/Downtown via the DNT and easy access to Legacy West, The Star, Frisco Station and The Shops at Legacy. Not to mention, the would be almost equal distance to their distribution locations - DFW Airport, Love Field, South Dallas & Alliance (Alliance being slightly farther).

Scott Beck's "Dallas Midtown" development (Valley View Mall site) is trying to make a case to lure Amazon to their new development. However, I would bet this is a distant second. Scott has been trying to get his development off the ground for several years, and some have become skeptical that he has the ability to make it happen. PegasusAblon recently purchased a development site between the Galleria and Dallas Midtown. I could see that location being a real possibility, but tied with Beck's site as a distant second.

I am sure Mike Rawlings is making a push for Downtown Dallas. The area has started make a modest comeback in recent years, but it still has a ways to go before it has the vibe of other major metropolitan cities. There are still several development sites in Downtown, but the developer would have to get creative to accommodate Amazon's employees parking (biggest drawback of all downtown buildings). If Downtown were Amazon's choice, I would put my money on somewhere in the West End.

Quick wrap up - I have kept in contact with most of my contacts in the industry, and the consensus on where Amazon lands is still very much in the air. I don't think any of the decision makers at Amazon know at this point. As far as the cities, I would put my money on Atlanta, Dallas, Denver or Chicago (no particular order).

Long post, but hopefully it was helpful.

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It's not going to be North Plano/Frisco. There are quite a few companies that are close to announcing new sites in Dallas and Frisco isn't prepared for them at all, much less Amazon. Companies are actually avoiding that area now (traffic, housing having trouble keeping up, etc). That part of town is just growing too fast. Other than that, I completely agree with all your takes with the exception of Chicago. The fact they're looking to be more 'bi-coastal' makes me think Denver is out as well although they cross off all the other boxes. LA being listed is a joke. Their list is much shorter than 20 at this point...I think they just needed to get some press out considering Apple made their announcement the same day.

That said, I'm still confident it's Dallas. They are looking at over 10 different potential locations within the D/FW metroplex alone. Dallas doesn't mean 'Dallas'. It could mean Richardson, Irving, Arlington, Ft Worth, etc. They're looking at the entire region. FWIW, something big is coming down the pike regarding the Valley View development. Not saying it's amazon big, but there are some announcements happening soon that will shake things up.

And that Vegas odds list is a joke; whoever put that together has no understanding of economic development at all.

Saw an interesting article today predicting DC Metro area. The fact that Bezos has a 27k s/f house there was listed as one of the factors and the other reasonings were pretty strong as well.

Interesting with Bezos owning the Washington Post too.

That was one of the other key reasons.

That and he can better lobby the government.....

Another reason that was listed. Their lobbying arm has gotten huge over the last several years.

A big strike for DC when it comes to company relocation is the fact that they're considered a 'strike point' regarding bombings and nuclear attacks. Same argument comes up when discussing Northern Virginia. Regarding his property, Bezos has property all over the place...DC is just one of his more publicized spots.

The biggest issue for DC regarding Amazon is the lack of a talent pool...they're no where near the tech talent pool of some of the other cities.

DC region has a very large Tech sector.

Stive said:

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Saw an interesting article today predicting DC Metro area. The fact that Bezos has a 27k s/f house there was listed as one of the factors and the other reasonings were pretty strong as well.

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Dallas would throw in Malouf's house and abate the property taxes if it got Amazon here. I still don't think it's Dallas though.

Bezos already has strong ties to Texas too if people want to use his real estate as a reason. He's got a personal ranch out west of Van Horn and his space company, Blue Origin, is somewhere in Texas.

So El Paso it is!

CuriousAg said:

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Boston is closest to all of the IVY leagues...so for the sake of filling $100k jobs, they will have the largest pool.

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Boston has the best labor pool to draw from. However, Boston struggles with public transportation. Upgrades are on the way but I'm not sure it will be enough.